Photo by B. Campbell

It was quiet at the Citizen Action headquarters on Central Avenue in Albany Tuesday night. "We just have a few people out there closing up some polling places," a young woman said as she stacked campaign fliers. Staffers and volunteers had just finished phone-banking Arbor Hill and West Hill, the heavily minority section of Albany. Citizen Action wanted to make especially sure that voters who came out to support Obama in 2008 would make the trip to the polls again this time. The group's activists said they were pleasantly surprised that everyone they reached out to from their lists had already voted.

Perhaps though, they should not have been surprised. Probably no place in the state would be affected as much by yesterday's state elections than Albany. It is, of course, is a town that survives almost exclusively because of state jobs and is considered a bastion for unions. And it also is a place whose name has become almost synonymous with dysfunction and the seamy side of government.

Pre-Election Jitters

Citizen Action staffers were pushing especially hard to get support for State Sen. Eric Schneiderman, running for attorney general. Polls showed him in a dead heat with Republican Dan Donovan, and upstate supporters in Citizen Action worried that Schneiderman hadn’t reached enough people. The group is part of a large network of unions and activist groups that support Schneiderman and worked with him closely in the past.

On Monday, Andrew Cuomo made a last-minute stop in Albany with Schneiderman in a bid for votes. With polls looking close, Schneiderman was thought to need more of a Cuomo boost. Cuomo took the opportunity to defend the city of Albany, saying that Albany Mayor Jerry Jennings was tired of hearing "Albany" used as a derogatory term. Ironically, most of the crowd was made up of union members; both Cuomo and Paladino have used "union" as a dirty word during their campaigns, promising to cut labor contracts and fire state workers.

At Democratic headquarters Jennings, a confidant and die-hard supporter of Andrew Cuomo, strutted about waiting for the returns to come in. Through most of the election season, the slate of candidates in Albany, which is known for its Democratic machine politics, were thought to be safe. Then came a surge of Republican support and a misstep by Sen. Neil Breslin. Breslin had been pulled over and was administered a sobriety test which he passed. No breathalyzer was given. A Breslin spokesman denied Breslin had been drinking but later, in an interview with a Times Union reporter, Breslin said he had had "a couple" glasses of wine before driving home.

Some Democrats worried that they could now lose his seat as well as one or two Assembly seats. As election night began, Democrats seemed nervous.

The news came quickly that Cuomo and Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand and Charles Schumer were likely victorious. And soon after came word that all the Albany-based incumbents in the legislature also were winning. All remembered to thank the labor groups that were in charge of getting out the vote. "It is no mistake that all of the candidates thanked labor tonight," said Albany County Democratic Chair Dan McCoy.

The union members know all too well that Cuomo as well as Paladino are have been pledging to do battle with labor. Off the record, a number of legislators worried that David Paterson has been doing Cuomo’s "dirty work" by starting to lay off state workers this year. They fretted over Cuomo's stance that labor must make concessions and openly wondered whether Cuomo would run into a brick wall in trying to battle unions.

A few staffers and politicians considered whether Cuomo might like to see a Republican Senate, which could prove more amenable to his budget cuts. It is Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver and his loyal Democratic majority that is expected to battle Cuomo over reductions in services. Some Assembly members were already sniping at Cuomo -- albeit off the record.

The Senate in the Balance

Meanwhile, in surrounding counties, Democratic challengers to long-term Republican Senate incumbents waited to see if they could pull off major upsets. Earlier in the year it seemed that Sen. Roy McDonald, who replaced former Sate Majority leader Joe Bruno, and multiple-decade incumbent Hugh Farley in Schenectady County were vulnerable. Democrats led by Sen. Liz Krueger touted the two female candidates challenging the Republican incumbents as part of the 16 Percent and Rising initiative. But neither woman was successful.

The Democrats grew more disappointed as the night wore on and the numbers crawled in. They fretted over the attorney general’s race and wondered whether Cuomo had done enough for Schneiderman; most of them griped that he he had abandoned DiNapoli, who he did not endorse.

The numbers kept creeping up for both Democrats. Schneiderman won. DiNapoli declared victory in the wee hours of the morning, but his opponent, Harry Wilson, issued a statement saying he planned to wait for absentee ballots and a possible re-canvassing.

As the night went on, the fate of the State Senate became less and less clear. As of this writing, the Senate was in a dead heat, 29-29, with four districts still being contested. The 7th, 37th, 40th and 60th districts were too close to call.

In the city, in a bit of an upset, Tony Avella defeated Republican Sen. Frank Padavan, and Democrat Joseph Addabo won a hotly contested race against Republican Anthony Como. Both Democrats and Republicans agree that the race between Democratic Sen. Suzi Oppenheimer and Republican Bob Cohen in Westchester is too close to call. The Senate could go to either party at this point -- or end up split 31-31. Republicans have declared that they are in charge of the Senate, while Democrats counter that they are. Whatever happens, it is likely that there will be recounts and legal challenges that could leave the fate of the Senate in the air for months.

Regardless of who controls the Senate, very little will have changed in New York. In the end, the "throw the bums out" rhetoric did not make much difference. Democrats who were in charge retain control of all the major state-wide offices, and they still enjoy a large majority in the Assembly. The question now is whether the Democrats will act any differently now, with a new governor, than they have in the past.

"Were you at all worried?" a constituent asked a Democratic legislator as they discussed the Tea Party movement as the victory party at the Polish American Citizens Club wound down. "This is Albany. I wasn’t worried for a second," the politician said, and chuckled.

Photo B Campbell

Andrew Cuomo has declared war on unions -- and union leaders are simply grinning and bearing it. With the state facing a cratering budget deficit, both the Republican and Democratic candidates for governor have made it clear that they expect major concessions from labor unions, and a property tax cap and will not raise taxes.

Cuomo’s intentions were clear earlier in the year, but the attorney general and Democratic gubernatorial candidate had not made his intentions so public and plain as he did in an interview with the New York Times that ran on Monday.

In that interview, Cuomo said he intends to run a permanent presidential-style campaign against labor unions, so that he will have the leverage to initiate spending cuts and negotiate contracts that they will almost certainly resist. Cuomo detailed how other New York governors have been brought to their knees in budget negotiations by public campaigns launched by unions. Cuomo will now try to use that strategy against them.

Despite Cuomo’s general anti-labor stance some unions have endorsed Cuomo and raised money for him -- others have declined to endorse in the race. Supporter or not, labor hopes that, despite Cuomo's plan to campaign against unions, he will treat them as partners rather than enemies.

Trying to Get Along

Unions have varied in their approach to dealing with Cuomo, who is perceived as the inevitable next governor. "There are two different approaches," said Dick Iannuzzi, president of the New York State United Teachers. "Either you endorse a candidate because you think they will better serve your interests, or you endorse them because you think they will be the better leader. In this case it is fairly easy, because Mr. Paladino is the other choice. And that is what some unions did -- they endorsed based on Mr. Cuomo's history as a leader."

Concerned with Cuomo's plans to initiate a property tax cap and cut spending and frightened by Paladino, United Teachers decided not to endorse. A property tax cap would likely limit a key source of funding for school districts outside New York City, something the state teachers union will not sign off on.

"Our positions are not aligned with his," said Iannuzzi of Cuomo, "It’s not just about the person but the policy."

Iannuzzi noted he is willing to work with Cuomo -- but wants to be treated as a partner.

"We hope to have an open, honest relationship with the governor," said Iannuzzi, "He is a man of his word, and I believe he thinks that I am."

Steve Madarasz, spokesman for Civil Service Employees Union, agrees about the need for cooperation. Cuomo sent labor leaders copies of The Man Who Saved New York, a biography of former Gov. Hugh Carey, but Madarsz said, "The Cuomo camp is involved in some revisionist history. Hugh Carey came in bullish and tried to dictate terms to labor, but he learned quickly that it was more effective to bring people to the table and treat them with respect."

"If people come in looking to work together to find solutions for the state we want to do that -- that is what we do," said Madarasz, "but if they come in and try to dictate terms, we are going to be prickly. We have had success in local government where we are approached about negotiating new terms to help everyone. Nothing is easy, but it works a lot better to treat everyone as partners than if someone comes in calling names and trying to bully us around."

Madarasz said that neither Cuomo nor Paladino "has said or done anything to earn our endorsement."

Another Tact

Other major unions including the American Federation of Labor-Congress of Industrial Organizations and the Public Employees Federation have endorsed Cuomo. Service Employees International Union 1199, which represents health care workers, is seen as having a strong relationship with Cuomo. Lobbyist Jennifer Cunningham, a former service employees vice president, is one of Cuomo's top advisers. The union has donated over $50,000 to Cuomo-Duffy 2010 over the last two years.

1199 also is perceived to be more aggressive and effective when it comes to battling cuts than the teachers or civil service employees. It launched devastating ad blitzes to fight health care cuts proposed by former Gov. Eliot Spitzer and Gov. David Paterson. The barrages of commercials didn’t always stop the cuts, but they severely damaged the reputations of the governor’s who felt their wrath.

Whether it spurred their support -- or is the effect of it -- 1199 workers also do not seem likely to be hit as hard by Cuomo's cuts as members of the other unions. Many of the service employees do not work directly for the state government but rather for private and public hospitals and health care agencies that receive money from Medicaid. While Cuomo supported Paterson’s recent order to lay off 2,000 more state workers, an action that directly targets civil service employee members, and plans a property tax cap that would likely hurt teachers, his promises to reform Medicaid are not perceived to be as sharp or particularly harmful to SEIU1199.

Anti-Union Campaign

How is it that both mainstream gubernatorial candidates are running against organized labor? After all more than 2 million New Yorkers -- or about a quarter of the state's workers -- belong to a union, the highest rate in the country, according to the AFL-CIO.

For one thing, Cuomo has been moving to the right since his run for attorney general in 2006. Secondly, Paladino is seen as such a long shot, one who has alienated many members of his own party as well as Democrats, that Cuomo has not needed to organize the traditional Democratic base. Business groups and their supporters have convinced many New Yorkers -- rightly or wrongly -- that raising taxes will drive more businesses and families out of New York. Without more revenue the state must lay off workers -- union members -- to balance its budget. Many critics charge that, rather than looking for solutions to the state's fiscal woes, labor leaders pressure legislators into increasing taxes and packing the state budget with perks for them.

The Working Families Party -- backed by labor unions -- felt it had to sign off on Cuomo’s policy plans, including a proposed austerity budget, because without Cuomo they could have lost their ballot line. Therefore, they did not raise any sort of fuss about his direction.

"People say, 'Vote for Cuomo on the Working Families Party Line,'" said Howie Hawkins, Green Party candidate for governor. "Well, they collapsed; they accepted his austerity plan. If anyone wants to send Cuomo a message they better vote Green."

In the eyes of most unions, Paladino, who has called for a 20 percent spending cut, is even less palatable than Cuomo. Plus few take him seriously. That has left many feeling they have little choice but to work with Cuomo rather than battle against his election.

Assemblymember John McEneny, who represents Albany County with its many state workers, said he was disappointed that Cuomo backed Paterson's order to layoff 2,000 more workers. In his mind, the state could do more to offer early retirement packages to reduce its workforce.

He also expresses some skepticism about the idea that high taxes are driving the state into the ground. He points to states like Nevada that are suffering far worse economic downturns then New York. "Other states with low tax rates and that provide a low amount of services to their citizens are doing worse than we are," he said.

Hawkins says he has been invited to more union meetings and to speak to more crowds than ever before, because people want to know if there are alternatives to Cuomo's austerity budget. New York City Councilmember and Freedom Party candidate Charles Barron also touts his plan to avoid major job cuts and to increase taxes on the rich; it is said that he wants to draw the city’s minority vote away from Cuomo.

Hawkins has proposed reinstating the stock transfer tax -- a move he says would generate a $7 billion dollar surplus. Opponents of the measure say the action would instead drive investors and companies out of New York. Further, Hawkins supports returning to the kind of progressive income tax structure that New York had in the 1970s so that the rich would pay "more of their share."

These tax changes would save New York from the austerity budget proposed by Cuomo and Paladino and allow the establishment of a Works Progress Administration style authority that would put any New Yorker who needed a job to work. Even politicians opposed to major cuts, generally dismiss Hawkins’ ideas as pie in the sky. But Hawkins says his proposals are very much based in reality. "People know we have provided jobs to people before. The emergency jobs program created by Roosevelt worked," he said.

Hawkins said the major party candidates have not even discussed these proposals.

"The lack of discourse between the two major candidates has opened doors for me," said Hawkins. He does not expect to get elected, but the behavior of the major candidates is helping better establish the Green Party. "I understand some people wouldn't want to endorse the little Green Party, but I think we are increasing our foundation, and people will want to in the future. There is a real opportunity for us this year."

Next Year

Cuomo’s success against labor is far from assured. Cutting jobs to save money will have effects on people beyond the laid off workers and their families. With jobs go services, and labor unions will be quick to rally the public to their defense. They will also likely have Assembly Democrats and Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver there to back them in budget negotiations, and they will be able to fall back on legal action and arbitration should things not go their way.

Major contracts with the state will be up in the spring, negotiations will start, and that will be the real test of whether Cuomo plans on pushing unions into a corner or working with them as partners.

Photo courtesy Daniel Donovan

When the general election campaign for state attorney general began, Republican candidate Dan Donovan seemed in a strong position. He had a record as a prosecutor, a moderate image and the support of Mayor Michael Bloomberg and people in the financial industry with lots of money to give. His opponent, State Sen. Eric Schneiderman entered the race as a career politician with an ultra liberal record and rhetoric to match.

Now, though, Donovan's campaign seems to be foundering. The Staten Island district attorney trails in the polls and lags far behind Schneiderman in fundraising. He has little staff and a campaign operation that appears disorganized. Donovan pulled all his television ads for this week and still has not aired an ad in Manhattan.

The Donovan campaign and state Republican officials still say Donovan will prevail on Election Day and point out that any Republican running in heavily Democratic New York will encounter obstacles. Polls have shown Schneiderman's lead shrinking and that a substantial number of voters remain undecided in the race.

Contrasting Campaigns

"I would say it's a real David vs. Goliath story," said a source close to Donovan's campaign. "They have all the unions and special interests," said the source, referring to Schneiderman. "We have a lot of grit and heart (and coffee); in reality, it's probably the best reflection of the candidates themselves."

Schneiderman’s campaign has around 12 full-time staffers not counting consultants. That is twice as many as Donovan’s. Donovan's press person, Virginia Lam, openly admits that Schneiderman's camp has more "trackers than we do staffers." (Trackers keep tabs on the public appearances of the opposing candidate and look to capture gaffes on camera.) Donovan has only six full-time staffers, aided by consultants and volunteers. Schneiderman has four press staffers -- with upstate and downstate spokespeople. Donovan only has one spokesperson.

Schneiderman's staff isn't the only thing that is larger-- so is his personality. He is known as a hyperactive overachiever and thought of as an outspoken, master debater.

Donovan is soft spoken and direct. Some say shy. Donovan staffers describe their boss as a "salt of the earth" kind of guy.

Sources close to Donovan’s campaign say that his work style is very much reflected in his staff. "They are of the 'work hard, keep your head down' mentality," said one source. "No glory, just get the job done right. It very much mirrors Dan's own approach to the job."

As the race for what some consider the most powerful elected position in New York State hits the back stretch, some wonder if what was once thought to be a very winnable race for Republicans is getting further out of reach. It may be a "David vs. Goliath" story, but in politics admitting you're outnumbered and outgunned usually spells doom, not triumph.

Republican Chairman Ed Cox puts the David vs. Goliath theme in a different perspective. "It is David vs. Goliath because this is New York; the state is hugely Democratic. Dan is running against the odds, as are most Republican candidates, so Schneiderman is going to be Goliath and Donovan is going to be David. He will be the one holding a slingshot."

Donovan may be having trouble drawing enthusiasm because the man at the top of the ticket -- Carl Paladino -- is neither moderate nor doing very well in the polls. Donovan has tried to avoid speaking about Paladino.

The Money Race

Donovan was supposed to be well funded; he has the backing of Bloomberg, who is known for supporting Republican candidates with his financial power. Bloomberg has given Donovan's campaign over $30,000, and Donovan has hired Bradley Tusk, who worked on Bloomberg's 2009 re-election campaign.

But as the Observer reported Bloomberg's support has not sparked a bonanza of other donations for Donovan. The campaign reported having only $400,000 on hand at the end of September -- half of what Schneiderman had -- and after Schneiderman finished the grueling and costly Democratic Primary. Bloomberg will host another fundraiser for Donovan next week.

With just under two weeks left until Election Day Donovan’s, campaign decided to go without any television spots this week. At the same time, a Siena Pollof "likely voters" found Schneiderman leading Donovan 44-37.

Schneiderman's campaign pounced on the news. "On the same day it was revealed Dan Donovan was forced to pull his ads from TV for the entire week, the first Siena poll of likely voters in the race for attorney general shows Donovan needs to make up 7 points, with just 13 days to go," read the release issued by Schneiderman’s campaign.

A source close to the Donovan campaign countered that taking the ads off the air for the week was part of their strategy.

The campaign bought ads everywhere but Manhattan after the Sept. 15 primary, then planned to stay off television before returning to televison across the state, including Manhattan for the last 10 days, according to the source, who added that Schneiderman also had a reduced television buy the previous week.

"They have their strategy, we have ours. We need the push at the end, because turnout is what will determine this race," the aide explained.

Democrats say Donovan has been spending his campaign money on fund raising consultants that have not done him much good.

The Donovan campaign, though, portrays Schneiderman’s operation as the one in trouble because, according to a recent release, "independent and undecided voters are trending overwhelmingly for Dan Donovan."

"Team Schneiderman is clearly in chaos and disarray with the knowledge that even with a 5-1 voter registration advantage, a financial advantage ... and their disgusting attempts to scare women and minority communities with weak and baseless attacks -- they still can’t stop the tidal wave of momentum for District Attorney Donovan," the release continued.

Photo by David King

Eric Schneiderman

Running from the Middle

Schneiderman was supposed to be too liberal to beat the middle-of the-road Donovan -- even his opponents in the Democratic primary said that.

"Anyone would look moderate standing next to Eric," said Sen. Steve Saland of Poughkeepsie as he waited for Donovan to show up at the Pougkeepsie Republican Victory Headquarters on Tuesday. "The view from Manhattan is different from just about anywhere else in the world, except maybe San Francisco," he continued, noting that he thinks Schneiderman appeals to minorities in the city and extreme Manhattan liberals.

Donovan paints Schneiderman as a part of Albany’s corruption problem. His campaign attacks Schneiderman for being elevated in life by his rich father and for being beholden to the unions that have backed him and donated to him.

"Certainly the public service unions haven't endorsed me. They don't want to see me as the next attorney general. They’ve had a good grip on Albany for the last decade -- and my opponent has been part of it-- they want to have a good grip on the next AG," Donovan said.

Last week, Schneiderman appeared in Albany to receive the endorsements from union officials. Dennis Hughes, president of the AFl-CIO; Tom Comanzo vice president of PEF and Larry Bulman of the Pipe Trades Association all personally endorsed Schneiderman. Schneiderman was asked about his close ties to unions and how that might affect his relationship with Andrew Cuomo, who has said that, if he become governor he intends to make the kinds of cuts that unions will not like.

"This is a tough time for everybody," Schneiderman told reporters, adding that union members don't want "pie in the sky. They’re just looking for practical solutions."

Cox characterizes Schneiderman as a career politician whose political future figures into all of his calculations. "Dan would never do something like Eric did with Al Sharpton and say that he will have an annex for Sharpton’s idea of justice. He would not make that kind of political move," Cox said, referring to Schneiderman's comments when Sharpton endorsed him.

While Donovan paints Schneiderman as too close to some special interests, Schneiderman has focused on Donovan's connections to another group: Wall Street. During a debate, Schneiderman seized on Donovan’s assertion that he does not plan to be the "sheriff of Wall Street." Donovan said he didn’t want to be the "sheriff of anything."

The New York Times recently reportedthat one in four dollars of the money Donovan has raised can be traced back to $17 billion hedge fund Elliot Management that is overseen by Paul Singer a staunch defender of Wall Street.

Schneiderman has also taken Wall Street money, but it does not dominate his contributions.

Both men say they will make fighting corruption in Albany a priority. Schneiderman touts the fact that he led a committee that recommended the ouster of disgraced Sen. Hiram Monserrate. The Donovan campaign says Schneiderman only did it after Monserrate had been convicted on a misdemeanor charge. They say Schneiderman worked hand in hand with Sen. Pedro Espada as well as Monserrate until it was politically expedient not to.

To fight corruption, Donovan said, "We need someone who has worked 15 years as a prosecutor, who has no ties to Albany, hasn't served their last 12 years there like my opponent and may have to investigate the people he has served with and has relationships with."

Donovan said he wants the attorney general's office to oversee all corruption cases in Albany, and would increase transparency and monitoring of member items.

"Partisanship has no place in the office of the chief warrior for the people of the State of New York," said Donovan.

Schneiderman has said he will make fighting corruption a top priority for his office and backs the creation of a public financing system for state races.

The Final Days

The candidates have confirmed one remaining debate to take place in Albany on Monday. Donovan’s campaign has complained that Schneiderman has backed out of or refused to take part in other forums and debates. They wonder why Schneiderman, who is known for his skills as a debater, would not want to debate. Pundits note that avoiding debates is the behavior of a candidate who assumes he is the frontrunner. Schneiderman's camp says Donovan has dodged proposed debates on Wall Street

"Mr. Donovan has rejected multiple debates on Wall Street issues," said Schneiderman spokesman James Freedland, "including one scheduled earlier this month in Syracuse, because he knows it must be hard to defend his hands-off approach to policing corporate corruption when New Yorkers are losing their homes and life savings due to white collar crimes."

Cox said that he thinks Schneiderman probably has a lead among voters right now: "They are both in the 40 percent range, but undecided’s are going to go with Dan."

If that does not happen, Donovan may not be all that disappointed. Some Republicans indicate that Donovan already has the job he wants. One Republican in the know said that Donovan needed convincing to run and would take a $40,000 pay cut if he were to become attorney general.

"He already has his ideal prosecutorial job, but going after corruption in Albany means so much to him that he is doing this," the source said.

Photo New York State Senate

Dean Skelos hopes to regain his post as majority leader if Republicans take back the State Senate in November.

After a rough two years of scandals, coups, Espadas and Monserrates, the New York Senate Democrats still had smiles on their faces. There were seats to be won, hotshot new candidates to challenge entrenched Republicans, and a sense that Andrew Cuomo at the top of their ticket would bolster their turnout while Republicans would have little reason to go to the polls.

Now, though, those smiles have faded a bit.

Why?

As has been the Democrats' curse for the last few years, triumph and gloating are quickly followed by scandal, failure and embarrassment. The trouble that has befallen the Democrats' chances to maintain and grow their Senate majority from 32 seats is not on the level of Eliot Spitzer’s call girl habit, David Paterson’s many scandals, the Senate coup, or Monserrate and Espada's legal trouble, but it is embarrassing and may be more damaging in the long run.

The problems now threaten to return the Senate to Republican hands after only two years of Democratic control. That, in turn, would bolster rural and suburban legislators, weakening the city's power in the Senate and in state government.

Two of the Democrats' sure-shot candidates in Long Island, David Mejias and Regina Calcaterra -- candidates Democrats thought would help them expand their thin majority -- had to drop out. Republican gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino has been surging; a recent Quinipiac Poll put him within 6 points of Democrat Andrew Cuomo.

For their part, Democrats say that, despite their problems on Long Island, they are gaining momentum elsewhere. Sen. Liz Krueger, who has served on the Democratic Campaign Committee for years, said she thinks Republicans are in for a surprise. "Carl Paladino is our secret weapon," she said. "In times of financial crisis like these, are people going to turn to Paladino -- misogynist, sexist, porno-loving and violent, at least in his rhetoric? I don’t think so."

Lost on Long Island?

Republican spokesman Scott Reif said the Democrats have fallen victim to their own huge oversights.

"The Democrats repeatedly pointed to two candidates on Long Island where they thought they would pick up seats, but they didn’t do their homework," said Reif. "Regina Calcaterra had a residency issue and then with Mejias dropping out … again, they didn't do their homework."

Calcaterra was challenging Sen. Kenneth Lavalle, who has served in the Senate since 1976. And then, on Aug. 18, Calcaterra was tossed off the ballot for not meeting residency requirements. Calcaterra had surrendered her New York driver’s license, obtained a divorce, filed her taxes, voted and kept a home in Pennsylvania. Jennifer Maertz is now running on the Democratic ticket with Calcaterra's blessing.

Then on Sept. 2, things got got even worse for Democrats. Mejias, who was thought to be giving Sen. Kemp Hannon, the run of his life, was arrested on Sept. 2 for menacing, reckless endangerment and stalking after he allegedly followed his former girlfriend in a vehicle and forced her off the road. Suddenly the Monserrate scandal seemed less far away. Mejias bowed out of the race and handed the reins to Democrat Francesca Carlow. However, Mejias’ name remains on the ballot.

The circumstances of Calcaterra's and Mejias' departures, along with the timing, will make it almost impossible for the replacement candidates to win and so probably destroyed any chance Democrats had of picking up the two Senate seats.

Meanwhile, Republicans say they could capture the seat in the third senate district, also on Long Island, where freshman Democratic Sen. Brian Foley faces Republican challenger Lee Zeldin.

The Upstate Contests

In western New York, Republicans are licking their chops at the chance to face Timothy Kennedy, a county legislator from Buffalo who handily defeated long-term Democratic incumbent .

Stachowski had a bruising reelection battle in 2008. Following that, he hoped to bolster his position by becoming head of the Finance Committee, on which he had been the ranking Democrat. Democrats instead gave the chairmanship to Sen. Carl Kruger. While that move may have appeased Kruger and the three other renegade Senate Democrats from the city, many in Buffalo saw it as another instance of downstate legislators' disrespect for western New York.

Having ousted Stachowski, Kennedy faces Republican Assemblymember Jack Quinn, and Republicans like his chances a lot. "Jack Quinn is doing very well in Western New York," said Reif."

Republicans also think they have an excellent chance of unseating Democratic senators David Valesky and freshman Darrell Aubertine.

Krueger, though, sees upstate as a land of opportunity for Democrats. "The farther you go upstate, polls show, the more unhappy people are with their incumbent. And the more north you go upstate the more the incumbents are Republicans," she said.

Further, Krueger said that recent studies show that, in times of financial crisis, voters prefer female candidates.

In the media market surrounding Albany three female candidates are seeking to unseat Republican incumbents. Krueger sees a grand opportunity there for Democrats to pick up seats and increase the number of women in the state Senate.

In the 43rd district, Saratoga County Supervisor Joanne Yepsen is challenging freshman Republican Sen. Roy McDonald, the man who replaced former Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno. In the 44th senate district Susan Savage, chair of the Schenectady County Legislature, is running against 34-year incumbent Sen. Hugh Farley. In the 41st senate district Didi Barrett hopes to unseat 20-year Republican incumbent Sen.Stephen Saland.

All three, Krueger thinks, can capitalize on the message coming out of the area's media, which urges voters to "Throw the bums out." In these races, she said, the incumbents (read bums) are Republicans. "There is an excitement around these women's campaigns and, no disrespect, but you don’t have that excitement around Hugh Farley and Saland and Roy MacDonald," Krueger said.

Then too, she thinks that Paladino’s campaign -- with its angry tone, to say nothing of his racist and pornographic e-mails -- will send voters running to a women candidates

In Westchester, Krueger has her eye on the 40th senate district race between Republican Assemblymember Gregg Ball and Democrat Mike Kaplowitz, who are vying to replace retiring Republican Sen. Vincent Leibell. Republicans dumped around $150,000 into the campaign of Ball's primary opponent, Beth Murphy. But Ball, who ran as an anti-establishment, Tea Party candidate, won, and now Republicans have pledged their support. Krueger thinks Republicans damaged Ball in the primary, and it will be difficult to combine the traditional Republican base and Ball’s Tea Party supporters.

The Crystal Ball

Senate Republican Minority Leader Dean Skelos has predicted that his conference could pick up four or five more seats.

While Krueger thinks Paladino will bost Democratic chances, Reif said that Paladino’s surge will help draw Republican voters in Western and upstate New York, making it more difficult for Democrats there. Mostly, he said, Paladino has been effective in "channeling anger and frustration over the taxes and fees Democrats have enacted over the last three years."

Krueger maintained that Paladino will help drive moderate voters to Democratic candidates. If Democrats see the gubernatorial race as a real contest, more Democrats of them actually will come to the polls -- or so the theory goes.

"I was joking with [Republican Sen. Tom] Libous the other day," Krueger said. "Every year when I worked on the Senate campaign committee and we were in the minority Tom would say, ‘We are going to further strengthen our majority and win big.’ I would very quietly say, ‘We are going to pick up a couple of seats. And each year I was right. And now we are in the majority. So again this time I am going to say quietly, ‘I think we are going to pick up a couple of seats.’"

Gustavo Rivera addresses his supporters following his primary victory

It's quiet at the Riverdale diner. Gustavo Rivera and three of his staffers sit at the back of the dining room against padded seats.

"I used to be in this position," Rivera says. "I used to tell candidates, 'There is nothing left to do. Go home."

Now at 8:30 on primary night, Rivera's campaign against Senate Majority Leader Pedro Espada is over. Rivera has shaken all the hands he can shake, kissed all the babies, spit his rapid fire spiel about how he will be responsible to the people who he hopes will put him in office. And now he waits.

Campaign staff say they think it will either be a landslide for them or a blowout the other way. Either way it will be over soon.

Rivera picks at his stuffed chicken breast, digs into a baked potato -- he hasn't eaten since earlier this morning. He has been bouncing back and forth between polling places covering any bases possible.

The Final Hours

"I already got your fliers," women say walking toward the polling place. "I already voted for you," is another common refrain.

Reports pour in of the Espada campaign using dirty tricks to confuse voters or direct people to vote for Espada. Outside the Church of the Mediator polling site on 260 W. 231 St., Espada volunteers stand around some of their pamphlets on the ground. One especially motivated volunteer chants Espada's name; there is no return chorus.

Daniel Padernacht, who abandoned his bid for the seat but whose name still appears on the ballot, and City Councilmember Oliver Koppell urge people to vote for Rivera. Rivera takes the time to talk to the Espada volunteers. "Make sure he pays you," he tells them.

Espada was here earlier. He appeared and talked to some volunteers but didn't shake hands, didn't greet voters.

I ask Rivera if he thinks Espada has a grasp on the realities of being a public servant, the responsibility to voters of his district whether they like him or don’t. "No!" Rivera says. He is fired up. The tape recorder is turned off. He gets angry. Words like disgust, dishonor -- he expresses rage at what he says "Espada has done to the Bronx."

The word is that Rivera didn't exactly want this, didn't want to be the one to challenge Espada. He was used to being the behind the scenes guy. But after reviewing the possible challengers he came to the conclusion that he had to make the run because he had the means, the connections and the will to challenge Espada.

Leaving the polling place, Koppell puts his hand on Rivera's shoulder. "I just want you to know you did a heck of a job. Win or lose you did a heck of a job. You stepped up to plate," he said.

Even if it was all for naught, Koppell seems to imply, there will be other races to win. Rivera nods in appreciation.

Waiting

At the diner, Rivera talks about the first steps he will take if he wins. In his mind, victory is not certain, but "It feels like we did it." He says his first priority will be to get bills together to help his district, tenants issues, jobs. But at the same time he says the district needs access to him. He wants his constituents to seek him out. "When I am elected people are going to know there is a mandate for reform. They won’t be able to stop it," he says.

I leave Rivera at the diner, he heads home to shower, change his suit, go over the three speeches the campaign has written: "We did it!" "We blew it!" and "Everything is a mess!" "See you at the party," he says smiling.

Celebration

Less than an hour later Espada has conceded. The crowd at the Monte Carlo on Jerome Avenue explodes. Rivera takes the stage thanking unions left and right. "Union power," men on stage shout.

Rivera gives his victory speech. The campaign confirms that Espada did not place a congratulatory call to Rivera -- they roll their eyes. Sen. Liz Krueger dances to Jay-z's "New York." She says she expects Rivera’s victory will give Democrats a boost. "Did you expect this to be over so quickly?" I ask her. She looks at her watch, "Yes!" she exclaims.

Earlier in front of the church, a voter looked at Rivera's literature and realized that the actual candidate had handed it to her. "It’s so rare to actually speak to you people," she said. "You know what they all ask me?" Rivera says a moment later. "How am I any different? What makes me different than Espada. I’m not in office yet but I can tell them the first thing is that I want them to be able to talk to me. I will be accountable to them. They will know where to find me."

Photo by David Shankbone

Nine years after the Sept, 11, 2001 attacks, a heated debate over a proposed Islamic community center two blocks from Ground Zero has helped spark a wave of distrust and anger toward Muslim Americans and Islam in New York City and beyond.

Polls show opposition to the construction of the center, known as Park51. People have rallied against it, and while Mayor Michael Bloomberg and President Barack Obama have supported the developers' right to build the center, many other politicians have stridently opposed the project. Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Lazio, for one, has referred to the project's leader, Imam Faisal Rauf, as a "terrorist-sympathizing imam," even though the State Department sponsored Rauf's recent trip to the Middle East to discuss Muslim life in America and religious tolerance.

"Opponents to Park51 continue to smear all things Muslim and justify their calls to move the project away from the 9/11 site by erroneously linking the criminals responsible for the attacks to the organizers and its supporters," said Faiza Ali, community affairs director for the Council on American Islamic Relations NY chapter.

While Muslims were victims of bias attacks in the days and weeks immediately after 9/11, then President George W. Bush made efforts to defuse the rage against Muslims and Islam. He visited the Islamic Center of Washington D.C. six days after the attacks, condemned any type of biased attacks against Muslims, and said that Muslims needed to be treated "with respect."

Now, though, following a period of calm, some Muslims in New York and beyond feel a return of the fears some experienced after 9/11. The apparent change in the country's attitude toward Muslims, Islam and their houses of worship has alarmed American Muslims and others in the country and left experts and common citizens struggling to shed light on why the apparent shift has occurred.

Two Blocks from Ground Zero

Two thirds of New York City residents want the lower Manhattan Islamic center to be moved to a location farther from the World Trade Center site, according to a recent New York Times poll. One fifth of those surveyed admitted to harboring animosity toward Muslims, and 33 percent said that they believed that Muslims were more sympathetic to terrorists than other American citizens. Another poll -- this one by the Daily News - found that half of those opposed to the center near ground zero do not want it to be built anywhere in Lower Manhattan.

This year marked the first time since 9/11 that the anniversary of the attacks featured protests near the trade center site, clearly a result of the mosque furor. Supporters held a demonstration at City Hall, while one anti-community center rally featured Geert Wilders, the controversial anti-Islamic Dutch parliament member who has called for taxing Muslim women for wearing headscarves and opposed the building of new mosques in the Netherlands. Police estimate that thousands attended the rally.

Politicians have weighed in. Gov. David Paterson suggested that the developers find another place to build "that would not be so close to Ground Zero." Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani has said that the project would "horribly offend" the families of those killed on Sept. 11.

To the concern of many, such rhetoric seeks to make all Muslims responsible for the attacks on the trade center and Pentagon. "This insinuation of collective guilt, the notion that American Muslims should be treated as second class citizens in our home is false, un-American, and should be rejected," Ali said.

As the debate has raged, some have tried to find a way out.

Yesterday, Rauf himself pledged to find a way out of the dispute. "Everything is on the table," he said in a speech at the Council on Foreign Relations. "We really are focused on solving it." One idea reportedly under consideration would involve expanding the interfaith programs at the center and allowing worship space for people of other religions.

Previously, Donald Trump offered to buy the site now slated for the proposed Islamic center -- if the mosque were to be built at least five blocks from ground zero. He maintains the proposal arose from his desire to "end a very serious, inflammatory and highly divisive situation that is destined, in my opinion, to only get worse."

Beyond Park51

However the issue is ultimately settled, the anger toward Muslims and mosques has spread to many parts of the city. Police Commissioner Ray Kelly has said that bias attacks against Muslims have increased in New York. Since 2001, the city has dealt with about 10 crimes or allegations of hate crimes against Muslims every year. This year, there already have been 10 cases, and Ali thinks some bias attacks may go unreported.

Last month, a Muslim cab driver in New York City was slashed in the mouth, throat and arm by a passenger this summer who asked him if he was Muslim prior to attacking him. In Astoria, Queens, an inebriated man walked into the Al-Iman mosque and then urinated on the rugs used by congregants for prayer and hurled anti-Muslim comments at the mosque-goers.

A 37-year-old Queens resident, who does not want his name used, thinks that he may have been the victim of a hate crime. On a warm August evening, he was taking the routine four-block walk home from the Jamaica Muslim Center after completing his prayers. He was wearing a traditional outfit from his native Bangladesh, which consists of a long overflowing shirt that reaches the knees and baggy pants. Two blocks shy of his home, five men surrounded him began punching him.

"I kept saying, 'Don't hit me. Take what you want, but don't hit me,'" he said. The men did not ask for money or for his watch. In fact, they did not say a word to him throughout the entire ordeal. The victim, an information technology professional, had to take two days off from work to recover from his injuries.

Officials from the Jamaica Muslim Center believe that this was a hate crime. "He was wearing Muslim garb, he was not robbed and he was only two blocks away from the mosque," said Junnun Choudhury, general secretary of the center.

In Westbury, young people recently threw stones, shattering the windows of cars parked in front of the Islamic Center of Long Island. "I don’t know what their (the youths') true intentions were," said Habeeb Ahmed, the chairman of the board of trustees for the center. "But one could classify this as a hate crime."

Ahmed said that incidents such as these last occurred shortly after Sep. 11, 2001, when the mosque's sign was egged numerous times. He says that he and the congregants are not fearful these days, but that they are being extra careful. "I am concerned," he said. "Things can get out of control and somebody may get hurt one day. We are thankful for the presence of the police officers."

And in upstate Carlton, NY, police arrested five teens for disrupting religious services at a mosque. One teen fired a shotgun into the ground outside the mosque's building.

Construction Conflicts

Meanwhile, it has become increasingly difficult to build a mosque in New York City. The city already has about 140 mosques in all shapes and sizes. They range from simple basement apartments to large, multipurpose community centers that can include Islamic schools and auditoriums. One , the Islamic Cultural Center of New York, also known as the 96th Street Mosque, fills an entire block on the Upper East Side.

Louis Abdellatif Cristillo, the project director for Columbia University's Muslims in New York City project, said that historically opposition to mosque-building was motivated in part by fear of the Muslim "other," but that it was dressed up under other pretexts, such as concern about zoning or complaints about noise and traffic. Most of those conflicts, he said in an email, were resolved without much difficulty -- "nothing like we are seeing with the Park51 community center."

Opponents of mosques throughout the New York City area have become much bolder in expressing why they do not want a mosque near them. In Staten Island, the board of trustees of a Roman Catholic Church recently rejected a proposal to sell a vacant convent to the Muslim American Society, which in turn, planned to convert it into a mosque. Neighbors who were opposed to the mosque labeled the Muslim American Society terrorist sympathizers and rallies against the mosque featured protesters carrying hateful signs against Muslims.

In Bethpage, Long Island, the town shut down the area’s only mosque, Masjid Al-Baqi, on the eve of Ramadan, the Muslim holy month, citing electrical and plumbing issues. The town supervisor acknowledged that the inspector who found the problems was sent after over 100 community residents called to complain about a proposal for a second mosque in the area.

Mosque officials claim they corrected all the maintenance problems but that the mosque was ordered to close anyway. According to the suit filed by mosque leaders with the State Supreme Court, an anonymous email chain letter had circulated among residents reading in part, "This is not a Muslim neighborhood; we have no Muslim congregation in Bethpage. … Many of these organizations are on the FBI's watch lists. I do not want this in my neighborhood. They need to go elsewhere."

In Sheepshead Bay, Brooklyn, some residents have formed a group called Bay People to block the construction of a mosque in a residential area. According to its website, the group cites the typical complaints: noise, traffic and parking problems. Additionally, they openly allege that the builder of the mosque, the Muslim American Society, has a history of associations with radical organizations that promote terrorism. Leaders of the Muslim American Society reject such allegations. The group claims that it has raised $30,000 to fund a legal battle to block the mosque by arguing that it violates zoning laws.

Earlier this month, opponents of the mosque protested when member of the society handed out free backpacks and other school supplies at the site of the proposed mosque.

Politics and Religion

Many of those watching the increase in opposition to the construction of mosques blame politics and politicians. A New York Times front page story on the lower Manhattan Islamic center last December did not mention any opposition. In fact, it said, the project "has drawn early encouragement from city officials and the surrounding neighborhood."

"This controversy only began in May," Imam Faisal Abdul Rauf said in a recent interview on Larry King Live. "And it began as a result of some politicians, who decided to use this for certain political purposes. And this is when it began to snowball."

Bloomberg sees political motives as well. "This whole issue, I think, will go away right after the next election," he said during an appearance on the Daily Show with Jon Stewart. “This is plain and simple people trying to stir up things to get publicity and trying to polarize people so that they can get some votes."

While some Republicans support the center and some Democrats do not, many Republicans see opposition to the project as a good issue for them this fall. Republicans who oppose the mosque sometimes have challenged their Democratic opponents to take a stand on the issue, the Times reported last month.

Cristillo agrees that politics is a factor but sees social and economic factors at work as well.

"I think the far right is conflating anti-immigrant legislation with Islamophobia in a climate of anger over the inability of government to resolve the economic crisis to rally its base for the upcoming November elections and the presidential election in 2012. We see this in the ludicrous rhetoric coming out of talk radio, cable news and the blogosphere casting doubt on Obama's birthplace and religion," he wrote. In addition, he said, social conservatives view mosques as examples of spaces that reject assimilation to American values and culture.

All of this has no doubt helped push Park51, which is, in essence, a local issue, into the national arena. Politicians, largely Republicans but Democrats such as Sen. Harry Reid and the former head of the Democratic National Committee and onetime Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, have chimed in too. They have both said that the center should be built elsewhere.

Other politicians have expressed their support for the center. Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah, a Republican, has defended the rights of the organizers to build the community center. "There's a huge, I think, lack of support throughout the country for Islam to build that mosque there, but that should not make a difference if they decide to do it. I’d be the first to stand up for their rights," he has said.

Park51's most vocal supporter has been Bloomberg. In an emotional speech, the mayor reminded everyone of New York City's dark history of religious intolerance. Indeed, Peter Stuyvesant, the Dutch governor of what was then called New Amsterdam, wanted to bar Jews from arriving in the city and effectively prohibited them from practicing their faith in public. At one time, Catholics were prohibited from practicing their religion and priests could even be arrested. Today though, most Catholics and Jewish New Yorkers oppose the center, according to the Times poll.

"Whatever you may think of the proposed mosque and community center, lost in the heat of the debate has been a basic question: Should government attempt to deny private citizens of the right to build a house of worship on private property based on their particular religion?" he asked. "That may happen in other countries, but we should never allow it to happen here. ... Muslims are as much a part of our city and our country as the people of any faith."

After appearing to vacillate on the issue, Obama, whose own religion has been called into question lately, reiterated his support on the eve of 9/11. "This country stands on the proposition that all men and women are created equal; that they have certain inalienable rights. One of those inalienable rights is to practice their religion freely," he said, adding "if you could build a Hindu temple on a site, then you should be able to build a mosque on the site."

Ali thinks such statements can play an important role "Americans have the right to freely practice their faith without intimidation and discrimination including the constitutional right to build houses of worship anywhere in the country," she said. Noting "the hate rhetoric against Muslims," she said, "Without strong repudiation from our elected officials, our fear is that this unsettling trend will only continue to grow."

Art from Ohio State University

In 2006, Democratic Attorney General Eliot Spitzer rode his popularity as a crusading attorney general straight into the governor's mansion, with nearly 70 percent of the vote. It was more an anointment than an election On Nov. 2, most analysts think current Attorney General Andrew Cuomo could enjoy the same sort of ascent to the governorship.

Cuomo appears to have a commanding lead even though the Democrats have had a rocky four years in Albany. Democratic Gov David Paterson declined to run for election in a fugue of scandal. Dem Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, appointed to her seat by Paterson, was supposed to be weak, an easy target for both better known Democrats and Republicans. State Comptroller Alan Hevesi had to resign after being reelected. And fighting among State Senate Democrats shut down the body for several weeks in 2009.

Add to all that that this is supposed to be the year of the Republican comeback. It still is nationally, but in New York the Republican Party has faltered in its effort to find high-profile candidates.

Unlike Spitzer in 2006, Cuomo has no primary challenger. The biggest barrier between Cuomo and victory will likely come from the winner of the Republican primary between former U.S. Rep. Rick Lazio and wealthy Buffalo businessman Carl Paladino

The two big-name Republicans many in the party hoped would challenge Gillibrand -- former Gov. George Pataki and former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani -- never got into the race. Instead, there are three obscure Republican candidates: former Westchester Congressman Joe DioGuardi, onetime Treasury Department official David Malpass and Long Island attorney Bruce Blakeman. None of them are thought to have a great chance against the extremely well funded Gillibrand.

Two equally obscure Republicans are competing for the daunting challenge of taking on New York’s senior – and very well funded and powerful – Sen. Charles Schumer. The party does seem to face better odds in the two other statewide races where neither of its candidates -- Harry Wilson for comptroller and Daniel Donovan for attorney general -- faces a primary.

Gubernatorial Mess

Figuring out who would run on the Republican gubernatorial ticket has been a messy process. Republican Party chair Ed Cox, unimpressed with Lazio’s early campaigning, urged Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy to enter the race even though Levy was a Democrat at the time. After bitter internal fighting and a disjointed convention, Lazio won the Republican nod. Levy bowed out. Paladino, however, was just gaining steam.

Why are the state Republicans flapping their arms in the wind in what is expected to be a benchmark year for Republicans nationally?

"It’s because Pataki didn't build infrastructure. He didn’t build up the party itself. And the leadership is self centered," said Baruch College Professor Doug Muzzio. "{Former party chair Joseph] Mondello was a disaster and {the current one, Edward] Cox isn't much different. But it has to do with who is in the team and on the bench. The stars Pataki and Giuliani wisely bowed out."

Carl Paladino has taken on the role of the Tea Party candidate, the outsider who is "mad as hell" at Albany dysfunction. But Paladino is not exactly an outsider; he has used his wealth to fund a wide array of Albany politicians, Republicans and Democrats alike. His business relies on contracts from the state. And he has come under attack for a number of extreme positions.

Rick Lazio

Lazio, a former congressman from Long Island, served as an executive vice president at JP Morgan Chase after his 2000 failed Senate bid against Hillary Clinton. He has come under attack for his ties to Wall Street; his finance chair during his bid for the Senate was Lewis Ranieri, who was on Time magazine’s list of the top 25 people responsible for the financial crisis.

The two Republican candidates are low on cash and poll badly in theoretical match-ups against Cuomo. An August Siena Poll put Lazio and Paladino at about 27 percent to Cuomo’s 65. Lazio maintains a small lead in polls for the Republican primary but has seen his edge steadily shrink. The latest Quinnipiac Poll puts Lazio 12 points over Paladino.

Both candidates have about $500,000 on hand as of September although Paladino recently gave around $500,000 to his own campaign. Cuomo, on the other hand, had $23.6 million in July.

It is expected that Paladino will unleash a massive television campaign in the final days before the primary.

But Muzzio doesn’t think any of it will truly make a difference.

"Forget it! Cuomo doesn't lose unless there is a disaster. This isn't an election -- this should be the lowest turnout ever. It is a snoozefest," he said.

Where's the Beef?

Democrats have been eating up the Republican primary as the two contestants take shots at each other and compete to have the most hard-line policy on the Park 51 Islamic center.

Cuomo has almost become an afterthought in their campaigns.

While Paladino began escalating the mosque debate, even saying he would use eminent domain to seize the property, a look at both candidates' websites make it clear that Lazio has signed on to the cause. Paladino's site features a video titled "Carl Paladino Will Put New Yorkers Back to Work" and a five-point plan to reduce the size of state government. Lazio’s site features a petition demanding Cuomo investigate the mosque, along with the letter Lazio wrote to Cuomo demanding Cuomo debate him about the mosque. It also features an attack on Cuomo’s link to "special interests."

A recent e-mail from the Lazio campaign viciously attacked Cuomo for not "investigating” the mosque." "Cuomo's refusal to do his job is as offensive as imam's suggestion of terrorist activity," read the headline in a quote attributed to Lazio.

"Lazio's campaign is so intellectually bankrupt that he jumps on the mosque issue," said Muzzio. "Excuse me, can you tell me what this has to do with governing?"

Photo by Azi Paybarah

Carl Paladino

Paladino has, both intentionally and unintentionally, cultivated an image as a rural outsider. His first big public splash this year surrounded racist e-mails he had forwarded to colleagues. Since then, he has come under fire for comparing Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver to Hitler and the Anti-Christ and proposing unemployed black youth undergo training programs in closed prisons.

Recently, Paladino said that “there aren’t many Republicans” in New York City outside of Staten Island and Queens. He said both boroughs could relate to his stances.

Lazio's approach has been far less abrasive, but a number of Republicans say it has been underwhelming and has failed to spark interest. His slogan, "The Status Cuomo," has focused on attaching Cuomo to "special interests" he says have leached money from the state while the current AG has been raising taxes and driving businesses out of state.

While Paladino has appealed to the Tea Party movement.pushing hard right, Lazio has tried to find a place in the middle. He has taken a hard stance against the mosque to appeal to Tea Party voters but he has challenged Paladino on his remarks about putting inner city youth in reeducation camps.

The Economy

In addition to pledging to stop the Islamic center, both candidates plan to chop Medicaid benefits for the needy, drastically trim state agencies and cut property taxes.

Lazio says he would do away with the pork barrel spending by legislators. He supports a constitutional convention to change the way Albany functions and has promised to veto district lines drawn by legislators, saying he supports an independent redistricting commission. He also advocates a property tax cap of 2.5 percent of the value of every home. And he has committed to giving the city the education funds it won in the the Campaign for Fiscal Equity lawsuit.

Paladino's plan includes cutting property taxes 10 percent by June,2011. He has attacked Lazio's cap as "weak." He pledges to cut the size of state government as a whole -- agencies, departments and staff -- by 20 percent by December 2011.

Paladino has further promised to cut $20 billion from Medicaid in his first budget. "New York offers more gold-plated Medicaid optional benefits than any other state and this is killing our taxpayers," says Paladino’s website. "Carl will cut these optional benefits back to California levels -- still the second most expensive Medicaid state in America -- saving New Yorkers $10 billion in taxes." He also wants to cut business taxes and pass an ethics law with "real teeth."

Lazio has won endorsements from newspapers like the New York Times, the Times Union, the New York Observer and others. But the endorsements were more anti-Paladino than pro-Lazio. The Daily News declined to endorse in the Republican primary -– instead backing Cuomo.

Paladino has tried to turn those endorsements against Lazio, claiming Lazio is the favorite of the liberal media, which have an "agenda."

Whichever one of them loses on Tuesday could still fight on into the general election, thanks to third parties; Lazio has the Conservative line and Paladino has his Tax Payers line

Lazio, though, recently said he thinks there will party unity. Speaking to a rally, in Erie County, he said, "I have no doubt in my mind that once the primary is over, that people who support both candidacies will come together, because I think there is common opposition here."

Muzzio laughs at the idea that the loser in the primary might continue on. "Lazio on the Conservative line? Cuomo is further to the right of him. And what line would Paladino run on? The Tax Payer's? Its a joke. This isn't even an election."

Like so many establishment Republican candidates this year, Rick Lazio was supposed to have a clear path to the general election.

But things have not worked out that way for the former U.S. representative from Long Island, who lost to Hillary Clinton for Senate in 2000. As some in the party began to grumble about his alleged lack of effectiveness as a candidate, Suffolk County executive Steve Levy decided he wanted the nomination.

There was one problem: Levy was, until March, a Democrat. That did not bother state GOP chair Edward Cox but it did dismay some Republicans at the state party convention. They blocked Levy's bid.

But Lazio's troubles are far from over. Now he faces another Republican challenger: Buffalo multimillionaire Carl Paladino who has assumed the Tea Party mantle.

Both Lazio and Paladino have spent a sizable chunk of their campaign assailing the proposed Islamic center near Ground Zero. Lazio's web site does not have the customary rundown of his stands on various issues but on its home page features both a petition calling on Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (the Democratic gubernatorial candidate) to investigate the mosque and a letter to Cuomo challenging him to a debate about the Islamic center.

For his part, Paladino has called for the state to seize the land intended for the Islamic center under eminent domain, a stand that according to the Wall Street Journal, dismays some Tea Party adherents who oppose eminent domain even more than they dislike the mosque.

The primary race for governor is reflected in a contest for lieutenant governor. Lazio's pick, Chautauqua County Executive Greg Edwards, will face off against Paladino's choice, former New York City Councilmember and frequent Republican candidate Thomas Ognibene.

Lazio also faces a challenge to his bid for the Conservative Party nomination, this one from West Seneca attorney Ralph Lorigo. Lorigo accuses Lazio of being "a moderate Republican," while he claims to hold "pro-life, pro-Second Amendment and traditional marriage views."

Whoever emerges after all this, will face daunting odds in the race against Andrew Cuomo and running mate Robert Duffy in November.

The Attorney General Race

For Democrats this year, the marquee race involves state attorney general. Five Democrats have debated their way across the state, leafleting, robocalling and buying ad time, all in an effort to win Cuomo's job. With none of the candidates having much of a statewide profile before the campaign began -- and with little indication the voters have focused on them -- the race, most observers believe, remains up for grabs.

(For more on the race for attorney general, see Attorney General Candidates Struggle to Break Away from the Pack and Can the Next Attorney General Fix Albany?.)

Whoever emerges triumphant will go on to face Staten Island District Attorney Daniel Donovan in November. Donovan has two things going for him: He does not have a primary, and he has support from Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who's already given him $37,800 and can, of course, afford to give a lot more.

Neither Cuomo nor his lieutenant governor pick, Duffy, face a primary challenger.

And no Democrat signed on to challenge State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, a former state legislator from Long Island who was appointed to the job after Alan Hevesi resigned. DiNapoli's general election opponent, Harry Wilson, who worked in finance, also has no primary.

Photo (cc) Sam Galison. A street in Parkchester in the 76th district.

"Gary, I guess this is a shouting match! I am not going to engage in a shouting match! I'm not going to engage in a shouting match," shouted Assemblyman Peter Rivera during a debate last week on Bronx Talk, hosted by Gary Axelbank.

Rivera’s Democratic opponent, Luis Sepulveda, an attorney who has worked for Sens. Ruben Diaz and Pedro Espadaand has experience in constituent services, continued to speak over Rivera, asking him about using campaign money for vehicles and about contributions he has received from insurance and pharmaceutical companies, all while smiling broadly.

Rivera responded by referring to his various Assembly appointments and to his position as fourth in line for the governorship as speaker pro tem of the Assembly. Sepulveda attacked Rivera for at one time owning a business that brought "seedy clubs" into the district. "That's the kind of campaign he is gonna run," retorted Rivera. "Dirt, dirt, dirt!" Later he called Sepulveda a jerk.

So far, the campaign for the Assembly District, which includes West Farms, Parkchester, Van Nest and Castle Hill in the Bronx, has not been particularly substantive. Axelbank, who is host of Bronx Talk, said the August 9 debate left him wanting real substance. "I think Louis is a fierce challenger and legitimate opponent. But I think he had a real chance to address Peter Rivera's record, and I think there are some real holes there. But he didn't take advantage. People didn't like how they both came off."

Let the Accusations Fly

If you listen to Sepulveda, Rivera is a typical corrupt career politician who has "advanced his own standing while being neglectful of his district." Notoriously, Rivera has been cited in a number of reports for having spent $54,000 worth of campaign funds on a Mercedes. That is not illegal, but Sepulveda wonders why Rivera couldn't have spent the money on something more practical, "like a Toyota or a Hyundai." Sepulveda has sent out mailers attacking Rivera on the issue. Rivera says that he travels all over the state and country in his work as a member of many national organizations and state committees. He says he has spent a lot of money on transportation over his 18 years as an elected official.

Sepulveda also says that Rivera has taken a large amount of campaign contributions from the insurance and pharmaceutical industries, and he stood in the way of the creation of a preferred prescription drug list for Medicaid. That list is used in other states to drive down costs and pressure pharmaceutical companies to lower their prices if they want Medicaid to pay for their drugs. Rivera told the New York Times in 2006 that his opposition was not based on donations he had received. "I am not doing this because I am in the pocket of the pharmaceutical companies,'' he told the Times, explaining that he didn't want to limit the kinds of drugs the poor have access to. ''I am doing this because it's the right thing. The governor is trying to balance the budget on the backs of poor people."

According to Rivera, Sepulveda "is the alter ego of Senator Ruben Diaz." He says Sepulveda was the only man Diaz could find to run against him and is doing it to send a message. "What's the message?" asks Rivera. "Either play ball or get out of this district!"

"He isn't saying, “Vote for me because I am the most qualified candidate.’ He is saying, ‘Don't vote for Peter Rivera.'"

Rivera insists that despite his relationship with Diaz he started the campaign on his own and won Diaz's support through his hard work.

"There are some cynics who say I was put up by the senator," said Sepulveda, "but neither the senator nor chairman Carl Heastie knew I was going to run. I worked hard, and now I have the senator's support."

Photo (cc) Luis Sepulveda

Sepulveda says he knocked on his first door on February 28, and has since knocked on 18,239 doors. He says his support in the community is growing in part because he has targeted traditionally ignored voting blocks like the district's Bangladeshi community.

"When I first started, Rivera called me a lightweight, a trial balloon, but I think things have changed," he said.

During a recent campaign outing with Diaz and Sepulveda, Diaz said that even if Sepulveda did not win he would be happy to "send a message."

"Friends ask, 'Why is he being so negative,'" said Rivera. "If you say 20 years of service is a waste of time you better be able to explain why."

Diaz himself is challenging Ken Padilla for his position as the leader of the 76th Assembly District. Padilla said Diaz's challenge to him and Sepulveda's run against Rivera are similar. "The senator put someone up against Peter Rivera--his counsel [Sepulveda]--to say this is what happens if you don't play ball: we will replace you."

Hot Button

One major source of contention in the race is Sepulveda's stance on gay marriage. During the debate on the 9^th he said he would want to see the legislation before he voted on it. Rivera countered that the legislation has been the same year after year.

Photo (cc) Assemblymember Peter Rivera

Sepulveda did not exactly make his stance any clearer during an interview with Gotham Gazette.

"What I've told people is I am not going to take a position on that until I see the legislation," said Sepulveda. I did not like the shape it took last time."

When asked what he didn't like about the legislation that came to a vote last year, he didn't elaborate. "I would prefer if they took it to a referendum," he said. "I am not going to say I am against gay marriage. I have a brother who is gay, so I understand the issue.

But I think it would be more productive if they brought it to a referendum."

He explained that he didn’t think the "the way activists have been going about this" has been helping. "You can't force the issue down the throats of the conservatives

and evangelicals," he concluded. Rivera supporters point to his Sepulveda's undefined stance on gay marriage as proof that he is beholden to Diaz who has lead a crusade against same-sex marriage.

Rivera voted in favor of same-sex marriage and says he would do it again.

Helping the District

When asked what he thought the main issues are for the district, Rivera wasn't very specific. "The people of the district will find out what the issues are in the coming days," he said. He put blame on legislative inaction on the senate, saying the senate should get the blame not the "legislature."

Rivera too didn't offer many particulars when asked what he would like to see approved in Albany to benefit his district. "There is a whole lot of stuff I would like to see passed. We didn't do power for jobs. It is simple things like that."

Sepulveda explained that the district is so diverse that each neighborhood has a number of issues that need to be addressed. One major goal would be to restore the number 14 bus, which runs from Country Club to Parkchester. He would like to see the area around the Bronx Zoo cleaned up. Multilingual education and public safety are also on his mind. He says that, with Diaz, he has drawn up legislation that would mirror the prescription drug plan currently used in Schenectady County. That plan allows residents to present a card to get discounts on pharmaceuticals. The plan has helped seniors bridge the gap between their Medicare coverage and the price of the pharmaceuticals.

And in another dig at Rivera, Sepulveda says he would immediately sponsor legislation that would require campaign finance funds to be "spent only on campaign related costs."

For his part, Rivera clearly thinks his real opponent is Diaz. He said Diaz is definitely trying to tell him to get in line and play ball with him. "Taking orders--that is not a distinguishing characteristic of a good leader. Playing ball is not good leadership," he said.

Photo (cc) David King

On the bed of a white pickup truck stands a man in a pearl cowboy hat and white Western-style shirt. The stitched red lettering on its back reads, "Senador Ruben Diaz." Techno music blasts from loudspeakers mounted on top of the pickup, accompanied by a voice reminding people to "Votar, votar, votar!" on Sept. 14. It is July 31st --there are 45 days to the primary.

The message cycles from Spanish to English. Four vans trail behind the pickup, some emblazoned with: "Vote Ruben Diaz. A True Democrat. !Nuestro Lider!" Traffic snarls as the 67-year-old Diaz orders the caravan to a halt. "Lets go!" he says, launching himself out of the back of the bed.

And go he must.

This year, Sen. Ruben Diaz is facing a rare primary challenge from a young community organizer, Charlie Ramos. Despite the many issues that face the people of the Bronx, the race has been focused on same-sex marriage -- which Diaz staunchly opposes.

Now Fight Back NY, a political action committee targeting senators who voted against legalizing gay marriage in New York, announced it is interested in the race. The group is looking to dig up dirt on Diaz.

Diaz says he isn't concerned.

"The people of my district are very smart people," Diaz said, who has held his seat since 2002. "They aren't going to change senators from one who brings them housing and resources for a person who is just going to bring them gay marriage. It is stupid. What they are doing is making me stronger."

He has "strength," an "army."

"Come to my church on Saturday," he said. "You will see."

Two Kinds of Politics

The Democratic primary for the Bronx's 32^nd senate district is a battle between old politics and new, the new techniques of targeting and outreach versus one on one old-fashioned street events and handshakes.

Diaz's challenger, Ramos, is no stranger to politics. He has organized grassroots campaigns in New York and across the country. Most recently he was the Bronx liaison to former City Comptroller William Thompson during his unsuccessful run for mayor last year.

But during the last week in July and early August Ramos has not been on the campaign trail. Instead his time has been spent at the Board of Elections offices in Manhattan and the Bronx and in court. Diaz's camp is trying to knock Ramos off the ballot by claiming a number of his signatures are invalid. Meanwhile, Ramos has mounted his own challenge, alleging that the man in charge of organizing Diaz's campaign is not a citizen and yet has voted in several elections. Ramos said that would constitute fraud and hopes it would invalidate Diaz's signatures.

Diaz said he can withstand any challenge. "I had most signatures in the state except for Cuomo. They are not going to be invalid," he said.

The challenges have taken a toll on Ramos. "You spend so much time tied up at the Board of Elections, and you end up only having three weeks to run." Ramos said once things are settled in court he will hit the train stations in the morning and senior citizen centers for lunch and the train stations again for rush hour.

Why is Ramos running? He said he would like to provide an alternative for voters who have had a "limited menu" and offer an option for people who support gay marriage and a woman's right to choose.

Charlie Ramos

He also thinks the district needs more jobs and better schools. He is looking into the idea of creating duty free zones in Hunts Point and would like to teach kids in Bronx schools how to organize campaigns, run for office and navigate the kind of legal challenges he is facing.

"We aren't bringing up the next generation of leadership in the Bronx. I want to help cultivate that," says Ramos. "I want to try to enfranchise voters. Only a small percentage of the district votes. If we could get more people, out victory would be easy."

As of July 1, Diaz had $163,100 on hand for the race. Ramos estimates he has about $6,000. Ramos relies on small contributions of $50 to $75, a good percentage of which have come from across the country. He says his backing for same-sex marriage -- and Diaz's fervent opposition to it -- has given him support from outside the state. Diaz has received large contributions, in the thousands of dollars, from businesses, industry groups and political action committees.

On the Road with Diaz

On a Saturday late last month, it is a party wherever Diaz goes in the Bronx. He shakes his hips to salsa music, blows and or applies kisses to all the women he encounters and poses for pictures. Three times during the sweltering afternoon Diaz orders the caravan to circle the street while he squeezes the hands of community members at block parties sponsored by him and his son, Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr.

Senator Ruben Diaz

Big white banners with blue and red lettering wave over the streets. On one block the sign reads, "Sponsored by Christian Community Benevolent Assoc. Inc. Hon. Rev Ruben Diaz Hon. Ruben Diaz Jr., Hon. Marcos Crespo." There are hot dogs, chicken and rice, burgers, soda, bouncy ball rides for kids. Staffers guide Diaz toward outstretched hands.

Despite all the activity, Diaz insists he is less than concerned about his challenger. "This is a good way to get out and talk to the people," he says.

Diaz is running with Albany dysfunction as a backdrop -- and some of the blame is aimed directly at the four-term senator. He is one of the "four amigos" who held out for rewards from the Democrats in exchange for supporting Sen. Malcolm Smith as majority leader in the winter of 2008. It has been reported that Diaz asked Smith to promise he would not allow same-sex marriage to come to a vote. Diaz proudly says that he "only asked for one thing. I asked for no gay marriage."

Diaz cares little about the effect his actions might have had on the Democratic majority. "The Democrats are hurting housing, education, health care. For years the Democrats blamed Republicans, but it is time to stop blaming Republicans. It is time to blame the Democrats. The Democratic party is doing this to blacks and Latino," said Diaz.

Blurring the Boundaries

Ramos, though, believes Diaz is one of the major offenders. "I think he has been part of the problem. He has been obsessed with blocking gay marriage when there are a host of issues that have not been addressed," Ramos said

"Diaz has no problem blurring the lines between the work of his ministry and his political work," says Gary Axelbank, the host of BronxTalk. Axelbank says the borough's issues are fairly clear: unemployment, health care, housing and schools. He said, though, that Diaz probably would put gay marriage and abortion on the top of his list despite all the problems the district faces. He blends his role as a man of faith with his political life. In fact, on Saturday Diaz, in his cowboy hat, musters his campaign vehicles out of his church's parking lot, where they had been corralled. There is no separation between his campaign and his church.

A Split on Marriage

On the previous Friday afternoon, at the Manhattan Board of Elections, Ramos waited patiently for his case to be called. He says that despite gaining multiple endorsements from progressive groups and the LGBT community, including the Empire State Pride Agenda, Pro-Choice NY and Democracy for NYC, he has had trouble drumming up support in the community. He says it’s because people are afraid to anger Diaz. "I'm going against the machine. Folks sit me down behind closed doors and say, 'I can't support you in public but I support you.' They don't want to do anything to upset the reverend or his son, the borough president." Ramos says he has "silent supporters."

It has been reported that Ramos wavered between a run against Diaz and a challenge to Bronx Assemblymember Marcos Crespo. Ramos says Diaz's stance on a number of issues made him decide to challenge the reverend. Diaz's vote against a bill that would have increased support for people with HIV was icing on the cake, said Ramos. "I have family members who have died of the disease, so it's close to me."

Crespo, who was campaigning with Diaz on the Saturday in July, said that he thinks Ramos chose to challenge Diaz because he knew he would be able to raise money through the LGBT community.

Ramos says he appreciates support from the Fight Back New York PAC but he doesn't exactly coordinate with them -- that would be illegal. And it isn't exactly clear that that PAC is going to do anything besides "hire expert political researchers to find every piece of information we can on Ruben Diaz."

"There are enough progressive people who care about gay marriage and reproductive rights to unseat Diaz," said Axelbank. "It is just about having the kind of candidate with the resources. They need to reach them all."

As the day goes on, Diaz's pace begins to slow. He sips water and sits on a curb to eat some rice and chicken. A few children splash about in the puddles next to him. When he rises, he finally begins to open up about the race and his feelings on gay marriage.

"I have an army," he says. "I got 40,000 people to show up in front of Paterson's office on a Sunday. Who else can do that? Barack Obama, that's who -- or at least he could have. Probably not anymore. They took a stand against gay marriage."

Diaz looks around at the street, at the children playing in the spraying water of an open hydrant, at the families gathered around small grills.

"Do they want housing or do they want gay marriage?" he asks. "Fight Back is using Ruben Diaz statewide to raise money. It is a nice way to raise money for them, but not for Charlie. They don't care about Charlie. Charlie is no one."

Diaz says that many groups and candidates have tried to raise money off his opposition to gay marriage. "They should thank me, because without me they can't raise money. When I quit," Diaz says, then corrects himself, "When I am no longer there, they will have no way to raise money."

The tactic does not make sense, he said, "to come here to the Bronx and use gay marriage in the Latino community. That is stupid."

Helping the Community

Diaz finally has had enough. The caravan wings its way back to his church on Longfellow Avenue. The drivers navigate the narrow streets with double parked cars on both sides.

Diaz sees a small woman standing on the street near the corner of Bryant and 172nd Street. He does his signature double arm point and flashes a wide smile. The woman smiles back and holds up a jack and tire iron; she wants help. The caravan continues on its way, Diaz continues to smile and point, the music blares. Diaz's voice blazes out of the speakers on his truck and the van behind him, though not in sync. "Este reverendo y el senador Rubén Díaz," spews from the loudspeaker and echoes off the walls. "Votar, votar, votar," blasts from one of the vans.

The woman stops looking at Diaz and waits for the caravan to pass so she can safely change the tire. Diaz continues on, smiling.

On Wednesday August 5, Ramos calls to talk about the last few days he has spent in court. He is on his way to a rally to celebrate a judge's ruling that has temporarily struck down Proposition 8 banning same sex marriage in California. He seems slightly optimistic, slightly wary and tired. He says his court challenge to Diaz's signatures "is a bit of a long shot."

"They don't want me on the ballot," Ramos said, "because they don't want people to have options. If I run and get 40 percent of the vote, if all the people who don't like how he behaves vote for me, it would show that he is vulnerable."

If people in the district had an option, he said, they might begin to see that there is an alternative to the way Diaz conducts himself, an alternative to Diaz's combination of belief and politics.

On Thursday Ramos finds out that a judge will likely soon rule that he has enough petitions to be on the ballot. He decides to abandon his fraud charges against Diaz so that he can get out of the court room and have more time to actually campaign.