Out to vote (photo: Michael Appleton/Mayoral Photography Office)

With Election Day arriving, the tightening race for governor of New York has been one of the 2022 election cycle's biggest surprises.

In the long-time calculus of New York elections, any Republican would need stars to align across the map to win statewide, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans two to one. Even party-unaffiliated voters are now a larger group in New York than registered Republicans. 

The math includes running up the score upstate, winning by a sizable margin in the New York City suburbs, and getting above 30% of the vote in the five boroughs. It means juicing GOP turnout and hoping many Democrats stay home, while pulling conservative Democrats and a large share of independents.

Though it’s been 20 years since a Republican won statewide, the whimsy of that prospect has diminished significantly in recent months as Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul's sizable polling lead, and to a lesser extent her funding lead, over GOP U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin has narrowed.

Experts say Zeldin has a chance of eking out a victory based on several factors: public attention largely focused on crime and inflation, pandemic era frustrations with government, and tepid enthusiasm for Hochul. The state’s first female governor is running for the first time for an office she has held for little over a year, but did limited campaigning until the race’s final weeks.

This appears to be the closest a race for governor has been since 1994, when Republican George Pataki – the last of his party to hold statewide office in New York – beat three-term Democratic incumbent Governor Mario Cuomo on a platform of restoring the death penalty and cutting income taxes amidst a Republican wave around the nation. That year Democratic turnout was low and Republican turnout was high, more independents voted Republican, along with a crucial number of registered Democrats.

The state has become more Democratic in enrollment since then, or even Pataki’s third and final win in 2002, but Zeldin's proximity to Hochul in the polls and the strength of Republican support throughout the country has rattled Democrats.

Democrats now make up nearly half of all New York State registered voters. Independent voters account for 23% and Republicans just 22%.

Most recent polling shows Hochul with a lead somewhere between four and eleven points over Zeldin in the final weeks of campaigning. In the most recent three gubernatorial elections, Andrew Cuomo beat Republicans by 23, 14, and nearly 30 points, respectively. In the final two races, Hochul was his lieutenant governor running-mate, but she has never been at the top of the ticket herself, and does not have Cuomo's name recognition or deep ties to voters, especially in New York City.

Election experts typically divide New York State into three distinct regions: upstate, New York City, the city’s suburbs – Long Island and Westchester and Rockland counties. New York City, which makes up nearly 40% of the state's registered voters and where Democrats enjoy a seven-to-one voter enrollment advantage, is sure to go for Hochul. Long Island and the Hudson Valley are toss-ups, and upstate typically favors the Republican.

The questions that will determine the race are: to what extent voters in each region will turn out and which direction the swing voters swing. The turnout question is also one of which constituencies each party and its state standard-bearer can motivate to the polls — part of the reason that Hochul has called in help from a long list of major Democratic Party figures in recent weeks, including Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Barack Obama, and Bill and Hillary Clinton. Zeldin has also called in Republican governors Ron DeSantis of Florida and Glenn Youngkin of Virgina for rallies.

For Zeldin to win, experts say he would need a trifecta: strong turnout upstate, low turnout in the city while pulling his weight there, and a suburban sweep.

Observers typically say that in order to win the governor's race, a Republican needs to win a share of the New York City vote roughly proportional to the city’s share of the statewide vote. That usually means around a third of New York City voters, who typically come far short of turning out in a representative share of their percentage of registered voters.

"Zeldin has to do much better than the last few Republicans have done in the city," said Jerry Skurnik, a longtime political consultant. "Plus he has to hope that there's less enthusiasm for the Democrats and the city represents a lower percentage of the vote than they normally do."

In 2018, when then Governor Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat, ran against Republican Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro – who now finds himself in a tight race for Congress that will contribute to the battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives – New York City accounted for 35% of the statewide vote. Cuomo won handily in the boroughs and won a third term with 60% of the overall vote. Molinaro received less than 15% of the New York City vote that year, a wave election for Democrats in the first major Trump era election.

Zeldin is hoping to win over 30% in the city, in part based on pulling moderate and conservative Democrats to his side, with a particular focus on Orthodox Jewish, Latino, and Asian voters. Even if he overperforms recent GOP nominees in the five boroughs, Zeldin will need to carry upstate New York and the suburbs by a sizable margin if he is going to combat his likely losses in the city. "Not as much as he's going to lose the city by, but he has to hope [upstate voters] outvote the city by enough of a margin to make a difference," Skurnik said.

Experts think Hochul has a chance of buffering some of Zeldin's runaway lead upstate, with the Buffalo native having a slight homefield boost and months of headlines for pumping major state and federal funding into regional development projects. That puts more pressure on Zeldin to take the suburbs, and by wide margins, and even try to gain ground in New York City, where he has held many campaign events.

For Hochul to stem his late-stage momentum, she needs to boost turnout in New York City and temper his lead upstate.

"A Democrat statewide can do very well even if they don't carry Erie, Monroe, Onondaga counties, as long as they can win big in Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse and keep those counties close," said Steven Greenberg, Siena College’s lead pollster, in an interview.

While greater turnout upstate relative to New York City is widely seen as a boon for Zeldin, higher turnout on Long Island – where Democrats have an enrollment advantage even as Republican candidates tend to get an outsized share of votes – and in Westchester, which has trended more Democratic recently, could be a toss-up. 

"More turnout is still a Democratic advantage," said Gerald Benjamin, founder of the Benjamin Center for Public Policy Initiatives at SUNY New Paltz, in an interview. "Republicans as a general matter need smaller electorates to win.”

In the suburbs, Republicans "need to turn out their voters but real increases in turnout don't benefit them," he said.

Turnout in New York City and the swing of the suburbs may hinge on how well each candidate engaged key constituencies in the run-up to Election Day.

"Her path to victory is clear, should she choose to take it – and that means building a coalition that spans Latino voters being courted by Zeldin, progressives disenchanted after [the] primary and voters who refuse to be treated as a monolith," wrote Camille Rivera, a progressive Democratic strategist, in a recent City & State op-ed. "That also means standing firm on issues that appeal to the entirety of the Democratic tent, from passing a universal fair wage for tipped service workers to expanding health care access across the state."

But this race differs from 2018, when Democrats saw record turnout, a response to the Trump presidency and the competitive midterm elections that year. While the first midterms of a new presidency historically yield gains to the opposing party, Democrats have held out hope they could hold onto their slim majority in one or both houses of Congress, particularly given outrage over the Supreme Court ruling overturning federal abortion protections. But the election comes at a time when Biden's approval rating is low, amid frustration over inflation and questions about whether Democrats have sold their major accomplishments. And the impact of Trump as a foil appears to have dimmed without him in office.

"Is anyone suggesting voters are eager to pull the lever for Democrats this year? Absolutely not," wrote Republican City Council Member Joe Borelli, a major Zeldin supporter, in a companion City & State column. According to Borelli, Hochul has failed to keep the conversation focused on her priority issues and lacks the name recognition, "political acumen," and New York City-origin that Cuomo had.

Polling from mid-October shows strong support for Hochul among women, Black voters, and to a lesser extent, Latino voters. Zeldin is polling better among men and party-unaffiliated voters. White voters and suburban voters are more evenly divided, the polling shows.

But polling does not necessarily equate to turnout at the ballot box. "That's a completely different question. Thus campaigns have the imperative to find their supporters and get them to the polls," Greenberg said.

That could come down to several factors but elections experts are watching one in particular: how well the candidates engaged voters on the issues they care about.

"I'm not looking for waves, I'm looking for riptides and these riptides could hit different parties in different ways in different regions," said Bruce Gyory, a long-time political consultant at Manatt, a major lobbying firm, in a recent Gotham Gazette podcast, forecasting less a wave year for Republicans and more localized outcomes based on certain issues, candidates, and voter pools.

With a national, pandemic-era increase in crime, Zeldin and Republicans appear to have successfully made crime the top issue of the race in New York and beyond.

Republicans do better when crime is on the ballot and this race appears to be no exception. Voters’ anxiety over reproductive rights and the integrity of democratic institutions that dominated summer primaries and some special elections, and which Democrats were counting on, has largely ceded to crime and the economy, according to polling.

Some polling has continued to show "threats to democracy" as a key issue for many voters, and no one on either side of the aisle is discounting abortion rights as a major issue in this election.

Messaging on crime and economic woes appear to resonate among suburban voters. Whether it will be enough to win over key constituencies – like suburban white women, who have been a particular target of Democrats nationally in recent election cycles and could be essential to a Hochul victory – is an open question.

The Siena College poll of likely voters in mid-October showed Hochul leading women 61-32% and trailing overall in the suburbs 45-49%. Another Quinnipiac University poll from the same time had Hochul up among women 57-39% and nearly tied in the suburbs. The suburbs are not monolithic, which is why the race there is not a game of boosting or lowering turnout but of reaching partisans and swing voters who could be swayed by the right message.

Voters in the Hudson Valley have trended more Democratic in recent years. Long Island, home to Zeldin and a large population of law enforcement officials from New York City, Nassau, and Suffolk, disproportionately votes Republican compared to its balance of registered Democrats.

In New York City, turnout may come down to enthusiasm for Hochul in traditional Democratic strongholds, particularly communities of color. While the Siena College survey has Hochul polling 92-2% among African Americans, there are questions about how well she has made inroads in Black communities where her predecessor, Cuomo, enjoyed reliable support.

"A lot of African Americans did like Andrew Cuomo. They thought he was tough, he was a solid leader at a time of crisis," said Basil Smikle, a longtime Democratic strategist. "They might just not like the fact that he is gone and not necessarily be energized to go out and support Kathy."

He questioned whether the candidates, and Hochul in particular, have made enough of an effort to engage Black voters on critical issues.

"Have any of the candidates gone into those communities and really talked about how their rights are going to be protected going forward, what they're going to provide to provide more safety and security for those neighborhoods?" he said, adding, "Black folks care about crime, too, we care about the economy, too."

"My gut tells me that if you don't have strong Black turnout in New York City she's going to have a huge problem," Smikle said.

Some potential primary challengers to Hochul "convinced themselves that she was unbeatable because she controlled the executive branch, she controlled the budget, she could attract enormous campaign contributions," said Benjamin. "She turns out to be a candidate who doesn't come in with relationships in the population centers…And maybe there's a reason why we never nominate people from upstate – it's just harder for them to win."

Latino and Asian American voters are another factor in New York City turnout and the swing in the suburbs. While Latinos, in particular, have historically been a reliable part of the Democratic base, Democratic watchers are concerned the party is losing ground.

In heavily Latino sections of the Bronx and Queens, in particular, Trump won a larger share of the vote in 2020 than he did in 2016.

"If Zeldin can get 40% of the Hispanic vote like Pataki did against [State Comptroller Carl] McCall in 2002, that's a huge factor," Gyory said, of Pataki's last election, when he won a three-way race with 49% of the vote. "If it's closer to 70-30 in favor of Hochul, that's a major factor." 

Recent polling indicates Hochul may be less popular than Cuomo among Latinos. "It may be the case that Latinos are not happy with Hochul’s handling of crime, which typically hits communities of color harder than other demographic groups," wrote political analyst Eli Valentin in a recent Gotham Gazette column.

Her potential challenges with some Latino voters may also be the result of a lack of "sustained retail politics" in Latino communities throughout the state, Valentin wrote. He also argues Hochul has not invested enough in Latino communities in her time as governor (something Democratic City Council Member Diana Ayala disputed in a response column), and that there are far too few Latinos among State Democratic Party leadership.

"She may win their vote,” Valentin wrote, “but it’ll likely be with a smaller margin than that of any of her Democratic predecessors.”

Democrats rallying (photo: @PatRyanUC)

UPDATE: On election night, results showed the Working Families Party achieve enough votes on its ballot line for Kathy Hochul to retain its political party status and ballot line in upcoming elections. In response to the New York gubernatorial election results, Director of the New York Working Families Party Sochie Nnaemeka released the following celebratory statement:

“The Working Families Party is proud to have secured more than enough votes to maintain our ballot line and continue fighting for working New Yorkers. Our grassroots volunteers mobilized voters from across the state to reject far-right extremism and vote for a New York that invests in working people by casting their ballot for Kathy Hochul and Antonio Delgado on the WFP ballot line. Against enormous obstacles—including an onslaught of spending from billionaires and dark money PACs—we once again beat the odds and showed the strength of our progressive movement. With a focus on the real issues facing working New Yorkers, we were able to turn out voters in every corner of the state. Now Governor Hochul and our statewide leaders must act—and act swiftly—to deliver for the working New Yorkers and communities of color who carried them to victory. Our state can provide much-needed relief to working families by making deep investments in affordable housing, lowering utility costs through publicly-owned utilities, investing in our SUNY and public college system, and moving meaningfully toward universal child care and health care. New Yorkers want leadership that will have their backs, and we’re ready to partner with our statewide leaders to chart a bold path forward.”

***

Leaders of the Working Families and Conservative parties are again pushing New Yorkers to cast votes for their top-of-the-ticket nominees in high enough numbers to keep their ballot lines in future elections.

Thanks to state rules adopted in 2020, every political party nominee for President and Governor must receive the greater of 2% of the statewide vote total or 130,000 votes in order for the party to keep a guaranteed spot on the ballot. Previously, political parties had to garner just 50,000 votes for their nominee for governor every four years.

This year as in other recent general elections, the Conservative Party has nominated the Republican ticket – U.S. Rep Lee Zeldin for governor and his lieutenant governor running-mate Alison Esposito, a recently-retired NYPD deputy inspector – thanks to a system called fusion voting, which allows candidates to run on multiple ballot lines. The Working Families Party likewise has nominated the Democratic ticket – Governor Kathy Hochul and Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado, as it has done in previous election cycles, even after backing other candidates in the Democratic primary.

"I anticipate a banner year. I would not at all be shocked if we ended up with 300,000 votes," said Conservative Party Chair Gerard Kassar in an interview with Gotham Gazette. "We are certainly going to end up well over the 130,000 and I feel very good about us surpassing the Working Families Party in votes too."

The party is banking on the momentum Zeldin has built over the course of his campaign, as well as many competitive races for Congress and State Senate, and frustrations with government under Democratic leadership.

The Working Families Party is hoping to remain on the ballot as a more progressive check on the State Democratic Party. According to WFP New York Chair Sochie Nnaemeka, the party is aiming to get 200,000 votes this year – fewer than in the high-turnout 2020 presidential election and more than the 2018 gubernatorial election, which also saw higher-than-usual turnout.

"We are not taking anything for granted in this moment because we have to protect our progressive party in New York State, and we have to defeat right wing extremism in New York," Nnaemeka said in a recent podcast interview with Gotham Gazette. "We are progressives. We can chew gum and walk at the same time."

In New York State, where Democrats outnumber Republicans two-to-one, staving off a Zeldin victory will largely come down to Democrats' ability to boost turnout, especially in downstate population centers – New York City and the surrounding suburbs. That could raise the vote threshold needed to keep the ballot line.

"We are really pushing for turnout to be higher, even if it might kind of negatively affect this threshold that was put on us," Nnaemeka said.

The new ballot thresholds are the result of a push from then-Governor Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat, that would kneecap third parties, particularly the Working Families Party, which had become a thorn in his side. The new rules had previously been enacted by a commission, appointed by Cuomo and the Democrat-controlled State Legislature to create a new campaign finance system, and were later thrown out by a State Supreme Court judge. Cuomo and legislators adopted the rules again as part of 2020 state budget legislation to the outrage of third-party supporters and some democracy advocates.

With the higher and more frequent threshold, the state's smaller parties have had to scrape to survive. Several of them didn't make it in the 2020 general election, losing their ballot lines and relying on the vanishingly small write-in turnout to make any mark in the election. Among the now-defunct lines are those of the Green, Libertarian, Reform, and Independence parties.

The Conservative Party was the only camp outside of the Democratic and Republican parties to consistently attract voters at the higher vote threshold before it went into effect in the spring of 2020. In the general election that year, the first race under the new rules, both the Conservative and Working Families parties crossed the finish line with enough votes to preserve their place on the ballot in the 2021 municipal elections and this year's state and congressional contests.

In 2020, 296,000 New York voters for President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence selected their names on the Conservative Party line. That was 3.4% of statewide votes. The Working Families Party, which nominated then-U.S. Senators Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, received 387,000 votes, or 4.5%.

That election marked an unusually high turnout year in New York, spurred in part by opposition to Trump in the heavily Democratic state. In total, roughly 8.7 million New Yorkers, or 64% of registered voters, cast ballots. This year's general election is expected to have far lower turnout overall, creating a less forgiving environment for small parties to earn big vote tallies.

The last time the governorship was on the ballot in the 2018 midterm elections, Marc Molinaro, the Republican Dutchess County Executive, received 254,000 votes on the Conservative Party line, or 4.2% of the vote – well above the current threshold. That year the WFP got just shy of 114,000 votes for Cuomo and his running-mate, Lieutenant Governor Kathy Hochul, or 1.9% of the vote. Had the new rules been in place, the party would have lost its automatic spot on the ballot by about 8,000 votes.

"Our focus right now really is to get progressives, to get young people, get voters of color maybe who might feel disengaged by the Democratic Party to put their lot in with the Democrats on top of the ticket right now and to do so while also voting their values," Nnaemeka said.

In the Democratic gubernatorial primary earlier this year, the WFP endorsed New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams for Governor and his running-mate, progressive activist Ana María Archila, for lieutenant governor. Now, there are few signs that it has built significant bridges with Hochul beyond endorsing her in the general election. There has been no unity event and no indication that Hochul’s campaign is working to help the party reach its ballot minimum, but the party is mobilizing its followers to vote for Hochul on its ballot line, which could help both survive.

"Should she be asked, she'll say that she's on the Working Families Party line," Nnaemeka said when asked what the governor is doing to support the WFP.

The WFP is pushing for state legislation to change the ballot-access rules once again, Nnaemeka said on the podcast. Under the proposal, parties would need to receive the lesser of 130,000 votes and 2% of the overall vote share for any statewide office every four years, not the current greater every two years.

"We know that we can meet these numbers, which I think is why the urgency perhaps has been lessened from a legislative standpoint. However, we believe that these laws are bad for democracy," Nnaemeka said.

Out of 13.1 million registered voters, there were 163,000 enrolled Conservative Party members and 51,000 WFP members, as of November 1. At 6.5 million, Democrats make up close to half of all registered voters compared with 2.8 million Republicans, or 22% of potential voters. Unaffiliated New Yorkers account for 23% of enrolled voters.

[LISTEN: Max Politics Podcast: Sochie Nnaemeka on the Working Families Party's Bid for Survival, Influence]

Lee Zeldin, left, and John Burnett (photo: @IamJohnBurnett)

November 4, 2022 - Max Politics Podcast: High Hopes for the New York GOP

John Burnett, Executive Vice Chairman of the New York State Republican Party, joined the show to discuss the GOP's high hopes for this year's elections, especially in the race for Governor where Republican U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin is running against Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul and appears within striking distance.

Listen to the conversation and let us know what you think, on Twitter @TweetBenMax. You can listen to the show through the embedded audio below or download the episode wherever you get your podcasts at Max Politics.

The New York State Capitol (photo: Darren McGee/Governor's Office)

November 3, 2022 - Max Politics Podcast: Understanding the Numbers Game in the Governor's Race

Bruce Gyory, a political scientist and strategist, joined the show to lay out key numbers in the race for Governor; break down racial, ethnic, regional, and other demographic trends; and explain paths to victory for Kathy Hochul and Lee Zeldin.

Listen to the conversation and let us know what you think, on Twitter @TweetBenMax. You can listen to the show through the embedded audio below or download the episode wherever you get your podcasts at Max Politics.

Voter registration (photo: Michael Appleton/Mayoral Photography Office)

New York State added over 400,000 voters to the rolls since the last gubernatorial election in 2018, a 3% increase in total enrollment, according to the latest data released by the State Board of Elections on Tuesday.

The 424,000 net additional voters since 2018 bring the total to 13.1 million registered voters statewide, roughly the number of those eligible to vote in this month’s major 2022 elections for Governor and other statewide positions, seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and the State Legislature, and other posts on the ballot, as well as the statewide ballot referendum on an environmental bond act. How many and which voters actually cast ballots in a state where gubernatorial turnout has struggled to hit 40% in most recent cycles will be determinative.

The balance of party enrollment changed by only fractions of a percent, with modest declines in Democratic and Republican enrollment and a slight uptick in the number of party-unaffiliated voters, also known as “blanks” or “independents.”

Democrats now make up just under half of all New York State voters, while Republicans account for 22% and party-unaffiliated voters 23%. The rest are registered with smaller parties like the Working Families Party, Conservative Party, and others. (In practice, the ranks of “independent” voters is even higher given that hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers have registered with the mostly-defunct Independence Party, apparently thinking they were registering to be party-independent.)

As of the updated numbers, there are now 6.5 million registered Democrats in New York State, 2.9 million Republicans, and 3 million party-unaffiliated voters. There are 163,000 voters registered with the Conservative Party and 51,000 with the Working Families Party. Given new political party ballot requirements that went into effect in 2020, there are only four recognized political parties in the state. The Green Party, Libertarian Party, and Independence Party were among those that lost their ballot status in the 2020 election under new thresholds.

New York City had a small net gain of 61,000 registered voters, and the city now accounts for 39% of the state’s registered voters and 43% of the state's population.

It is unclear what these small shifts in voter enrollment will mean for the race for governor between incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul and Republican U.S. Rep Lee Zeldin, other statewide races, or the numerous competitive congressional and state legislative contests.

Hochul enjoys the advantages of incumbency, significant fundraising, and being a Democrat in a heavily blue state. Zeldin, like Hochul, is benefiting from major outside spending in the race and has some wind at his back in what is expected to be a wave year for Republicans across the country. No Republican has won statewide in New York since Governor George Pataki secured a third term in 2002, but polling has shown Zeldin within striking distance, though Hochul remains the favorite.

Conventional wisdom suggests Zeldin needs a combination of a very strong showing in the conservative bastions of upstate New York and relatively low turnout in New York City, where Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly seven to one. On top of that, experts say he will likely need to sweep the New York City suburbs – Suffolk, Nassau, and Westchester Counties – where the numbers of registered Democrats, Republicans, and unaffiliated voters are closer together. And, of those who do come to the polls in the five boroughs, conventional wisdom is that in order to win statewide, the Republican must get at least 30% of the New York City vote.

While the enrollment increase represents a small bump since the last time a governor was on the ballot four years ago, it is a decline from a highwater mark of 13.6 million registered voters during the 2020 presidential election, in which record numbers turned out in the contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

New York City, which lost about 366,000 voters since 2020, accounted for 86% of the decline. Despite the city's major Democratic enrollment advantage, the shift spurred only a blip in the statewide party-enrollment balance with Republicans and unaffiliated voters making slight gains at Democrats' expense.

The recent decline represents a shift from the previous post-presidential election period, between the 2016 presidential race between Trump and Hillary Clinton and the 2018 gubernatorial race, in which Andrew Cuomo won a third term. In that two-year period, statewide enrollment increased and Democrats reached 50% of total registered voters while the proportion of Republicans and independent voters shrank by less than a percent each.

"There is usually a jump in enrollment in the presidential year," said Jerry Skurnik, a veteran political consultant who specializes in voter trends, in an interview with Gotham Gazette.

In 2020 that leap was likely exaggerated by opposition to Trump, Skurnik estimated, which spurred a slight boost in Democrats' voter enrollment advantage that has since shrunk without the former president's name on the ballot.

"People who are now Democrats, some of them were motivated to become Democrats as a reaction to Trump, I think, and you didn't have that after Biden won," Skurnik said. "My guess is you had an abnormal jump there as a reaction to Trump."

Since Pataki’s 2002 win, the number of registered voters in New York State has increased by more than 2 million voters, or close to 19% growth. At the time, the state had a larger share of Republican voters, who accounted for 28% of registered voters compared with Democrats' 47%. About a quarter of voters were independent or registered with third parties. Republicans are now down to 22% of the state total and have dropped below independents, and Democrats are up to about 50%.

New York City
New York City gained 61,000 voters since the 2018 gubernatorial race. That year, Democrat Andrew Cuomo won with 60% of the vote over Republican Marc Molinaro, including 80% in New York City.

Two in five registered voters now hail from New York City. That balance has fluctuated less than two percentage points over the last four years.

Democrats added just 6,000 city voters to their rolls since 2018. Republicans added just 3,000 voters in the five boroughs (a significantly larger share of total party members than Democrats added, but still a limited sum). The number of unaffiliated voters in New York City, which grew by 41,000 since 2018, now account for nearly a fifth of all registered city voters.

Since the last presidential election in 2020, New York City lost 366,000 registered voters, though the distribution of Democrats, Republicans, and independent voters was roughly unchanged.

Suffolk
Suffolk County on Long Island, a swing region and one of the state's most populous counties, gained 72,000 enrolled voters since 2018 and accounts for 8% of all registered voters in the state, or 1,109,000 voters.

The county -- Zeldin’s home district -- is slightly more Democratic and independent (party-unaffiliated) than it was in 2018, and less Republican, with shifts within two percentage points of 2018 figures. But Republican turnout there and in many other parts of the state often outruns Democratic turnout, especially in non-presidential years, and the direction independent voters go can be determinative.

In 2018, Cuomo received 50.7% of the Suffolk County vote, compared to 45.6% for Molinaro.

While seeing enrollment gains over four years, like much of the rest of the state the county on the eastern side of Long Island lost voters since the 2020 presidential election. Suffolk lost 15,000 registered voters since 2020 with the party balance going mostly unchanged.

Nassau
Nassau County, another populous swing county, on Long Island’s western end abutting Queens, added 36,000 voters since 2018, reaching 1,068,000 registered voters or 8% of the statewide total.

The number of Democrats and party-unaffiliated voters increased and the number of Republicans declined since 2018. Democrats now make up nearly 40% of registered voters in Nassau, compared to Republicans' 30% and the 26% of voters who are not registered with any party.

In 2018, Cuomo beat Molinaro in Nassau County with 55.4% of the vote.

Part of the statewide trend, Nassau lost registered voters since the 2020 presidential election. Nassau lost 21,000 voters, mostly among Democrats and Republicans with growth among unaffiliated voters.

Westchester
In Westchester County, voter enrollment increased by 22,000 registered voters from 2018 to 2022 to 665,000.

Westchester is home to roughly 5% of the state's registered voters.

Democrats and unaffiliated voters accounted for almost all of that increase, gaining 20,000 and 14,000, respectively, while Republicans lost 9,000 members. Democrats now account for 50% of registered voters in the county, which has been voting more Democratic in recent years, while independent voters make up roughly 25% and Republicans close to 20%.

In 2018, Cuomo beat Molinaro in Westchester County with 65.5% of the vote.

Since 2020, Westchester lost a net 11,000 registered voters, with the number of Republicans and Democrats decreasing and unaffiliated voters increasing.

Then-Lt. Gov. Hochul opens a solar farm (photo: Philip Kamrass/ New York Power Authority)

On the back of every New Yorker's ballot this fall is a question: whether or not to allow the state to borrow $4.2 billion to pay for major clean environment and climate change mitigation infrastructure.

The provision, known as the "Clean Water, Clean Air, and Green Jobs Environmental Bond Act," would authorize the state comptroller to sell bonds on behalf of the State of New York to pay for projects related to greenhouse gas emissions, flood risk, clean water, land conservation, and other climate-related matters.

After having passed the Legislature at the Governor's urging, the question is now before voters amid increasingly extreme weather events, high pollution, and lost biodiversity, and as the state makes strides toward carbon emission reduction and clean energy production goals. It also comes one year after New York voters approved a statewide referendum guaranteeing a new constitutional right to clean air and water and a healthy environment.

Governor Kathy Hochul and the Legislature passed the Environmental Bond Act as part of the state budget earlier this year and, because it involves increasing the state’s general obligation bonding, requires voter approval to go into effect.

It is the lone statewide ballot referendum this year, and voters across New York can vote “yes” or “no” when casting a ballot in the general election, which also includes races for statewide, congressional, state legislative, and judicial offices. In New York City, there are three other ballot referendum questions dealing with proposals from a racial justice commission that would alter the City Charter.

The bond act ballot measure has the support of the state Democratic Party and hundreds of local leaders, advocacy groups, and community organizations throughout the state. It faces criticism from some fiscal watchdogs and conservative groups, like the state Conservative Party, which opposes adding to state debt on matters like the environment while the economy shows signs of contracting. While there is a large, connected movement in support of the proposal, there appears to be limited organized opposition.

A Siena College poll of likely voters in mid-October found 54% supported the referendum and 26% opposed it; while 20% said they were either undecided or did not intend to vote on the measure. Of likely Democratic voters, the poll found 78% supported the referendum, while only 6% were against it (15% were undecided or not planning to weigh in). Republicans had a different perspective, with 52% against the measure, 23% in favor, and 18% undecided (7% did not plan to vote).

What’s In It
The Environmental Bond Act includes $1.5 billion for climate change mitigation. Of that sum, $500 million would go to cover the cost of electrifying the state’s school bus fleet, and at least $400 million is earmarked for renewable-energy and efficiency upgrades in state-owned buildings. The act includes a "Clean Green Schools" initiative​ energy and air quality upgrades in 1,000 public schools. Other funding in this category would go toward pollution mitigation in marginalized communities and projects to blunt the effects of climate change.

The act also contains $1.1 billion for flood risk reduction. If approved, state agencies would get another $650 million to purchase land for conservation and rehabilitation. And $650 million would go to water infrastructure and pollution control initiatives. Outside of these categories, the state would have leeway to spend an additional $300 million that hasn't been specifically earmarked.

At least 35% of the total $4.2 billion would have to go toward improvements in areas disproportionately impacted by climate change and pollution.

The act was originally proposed as a smaller $3 billion bond by Governor Andrew Cuomo in 2019, the same year lawmakers passed the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA), which set state goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 40% by 2030 and 85% by 2050. Seventy percent of the state's electricity must come from renewable sources by 2030 and all electricity must come from renewables by 2040. The bond act's champions in Albany have said the bill is necessary to reach those ambitious targets, part of a larger effort to meet the CLCPA that includes a “scoping plan” in development by the state’s Climate Action Council.

The state delayed moving the bond act to a voter referendum previously due to the onset of the pandemic.

Hochul, who is seeking her first full term as governor, secured the proposal in the state budget this year, expanding it to $4.2 billion in the process. ​The budget also included $400 million for an Environmental Protection Fund, $500 million for offshore wind development, and another $500 million in clean water infrastructure, among other environment-related spending.

Arguments For and Against the Environmental Bond Act
"I need to have everybody who cares about human life on this planet and lives in the State of New York to mobilize to make sure the vote gets out in support of this bond act," the governor said at a September 21 press conference on the state's efforts to solicit new large-scale renewable energy projects.

“The Environmental Bond Act exemplifies the New York State Democratic Party’s commitment to fighting climate change while providing environmental equity and economic opportunity for all New Yorkers," said New York State Democratic Party Chair Jay Jacobs in a statement to Gotham Gazette. "The Act is a crucial step in guaranteeing New York State can lead the nation by creating green jobs, ensuring environmental resiliency, and reducing our dependency on fossil fuels."

Democrats were dealt an unexpected blow last November when three other referenda the party backed failed after an organized campaign from Republicans and virtually no rebuttal. A spokesperson for Jacobs would not say what the party was doing or how much it has spent to promote the ballot question.

Hochul’s campaign did not return requests for comment about what it was doing to promote the referendum and to respond to the most common criticisms of the measure.

The state Republican Party did not return requests for comment for this story. GOP gubernatorial nominee Rep. Lee Zeldin has not taken a public position on the Environmental Bond Act, and his campaign did not respond to multiple Gotham Gazette inquiries seeking his stance. The last state environmental bond act was passed under the last Republican governor, George Pataki, in 1996.

There is wide agreement on the necessity of many of the spending planks in the bond act, even among fiscal conservatives who recognize the threats of climate change to the health of New York and its economy.

Supporters of the act say the investment in the environment is critical and long overdue.

"This is the first time in a generation that New Yorkers have had this opportunity to vote for environmental funding," said Jessica Ottney Mahar, director of policy and strategy at The Nature Conservancy, in an interview with Gotham Gazette. "The bond act is focused on really big issues facing all of our communities."

The Nature Conservancy is a member of a coalition known as "New Yorkers for Clean Water & Jobs," which has attracted hundreds of member organizations and raised $4.8 million to support a yes-vote campaign, of which it has spent $398,000 as of October 24, according to campaign finance filings.

"It's good debt," said Julie Tighe, president of the New York League of Conservation Voters, in a recent podcast interview with Gotham Gazette, referring to the relatively high return on investment experts say comes from funding environmental mitigation projects and those that promise both good jobs and resilient infrastructure. "This is something, we know it's not going to increase any taxes for New Yorkers.”

A report from the international engineering firm AECOM and Rebuild by Design, an environmental consultancy group created in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy, estimates the bond act would create 84,000 jobs. "There are rippling effects for spending that $4.2 billion. You might be creating economic development, you might be creating tourism," said Amy Chester, managing director of Rebuild by Design, in the same interview as Tighe. "It ends up being really a home run."

Some opponents of the referendum argue the state should not be increasing its already sizable debt at a time when interest rates have been rising.

“New Yorkers do not need another $4.2 billion in public debt, together with its resulting debt service," said state Conservative Party Chair Gerard Kassar in a statement.

Comptroller Tom DiNapoli, a Democrat who is also seeking reelection this year, disagreed with the argument that the state cannot afford to take on this debt. "By approving it, it doesn't mean automatically the state's going to go out and borrow $4.2 billion," he told Gotham Gazette in a recent podcast interview. "I mean, bond acts take years, if not decades to be spent out. And because New York does have a high debt burden, this will be factored in before the state goes out to borrow."

DiNapoli said that his office has not examined the bond act but that he, in his personal capacity and as a candidate, is supporting it and urging New Yorkers to vote to approve it. His Republican opponent, Paul Rodriguez, has opposed the Environmental Bond Act. In the lone debate between the two, DiNapoli asked Rodriguez for his stance on the measure, to which Rodriguez said, “I think we are not at a time right now where we should be adding more debt to the balance sheet of the state.”

New York currently has roughly $67 billion in outstanding debt backed by the state, according to the state financial plan. The state's financial plan projects both that the new debt from a potential Environmental Bond Act and the resulting debt service costs will fall below the statutory debt and debt service caps. That outlook can change over time.

"In five years' time, the State expects to be approaching its statutory debt cap, primarily due to growth in outstanding debt from areas other than the bond act," wrote Patrick Orecki, director of state studies at Citizens Budget Commission, a fiscal watchdog group, in an email to Gotham Gazette. "Still, the State will need to continue to manage debt from all sources in future years to continue to adhere to its cap." CBC has not taken a position on Question 1.

Opponents also argue new debt shouldn't be issued while money from a previous environmental bond act, passed in 1996 remains unspent.

“The Act and arguments in favor reference a number of projects that appear to warrant consideration,” Kassar continued in his statement. “However, The Conservative Party maintains that a full review and application of all funds that remains from previous state actions should be used before an additional $4.2 billion is incurred."

The last time an environmental bond referendum was on the ballot was in 1996, when a $1.75 billion bond, backed by then-Governor Pataki, came before voters, who approved it with 55% of the vote. Ninety-five percent of those funds have been spent on drinking water projects, replacing coal-based heating systems in New York City schools, pollution remediation, shuttering landfills, and other programs, according to an Albany Times Union report, with about $82 million leftover and another $100 million in authorized borrowing still on the table.

According to Ottney Mahar, that money has been tied up in negotiations between the executive and legislative branches but is still moving out the door, however slowly.

"Yes, there are bits of money left over from 1996. That money should be spent too. But that's not a reason not to move forward with this exciting program," she told Gotham Gazette.

The Empire Center for Public Policy, a conservative think tank, has argued that while the bond would help fund many worthy projects, its provisions to require prevailing wages for labor on bond act-funded projects and requirements to buy resources domestically when possible make it less cost effective and detract from its mission.

"What these provisions mean is that the money allocated doesn’t go as far as it could go – less can be accomplished than if the act exempted all projects from these financially destructive requirements," wrote James Hanley, an Empire Center fellow, in a recent blog post on its website.

Hanley also argued that some measures in the bond act were questionable, like a $500 million allocation to help achieve zero-emission school buses by 2035. That funding would be a drop in the $10 billion bucket he estimates would be needed to convert the entire fleet, a sum he wrote amounts to a mere "talking point for the Hochul administration."

Ottney Mahar agreed the funding wasn't enough but counters Hanley's ultimate conclusion.

"What's exciting about the bond act is that it's not necessarily a silver bullet alone, but it's creating an opportunity for leverage," she told Gotham Gazette. "It could be the keystone in a larger funding pie that really helps us advance solutions."

The federal Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act include significant funding for purposes similar to the current bond act, and which often require states and localities to match spending. The bond act can help New York meet those requirements, proponents regularly note.

"The leverage potential for this bond act is just enormous,” said Ottney Mahar. “The timing is perfect."

Early voting in the 2022 general election, including “prop 1” is underway, running from Saturday, October 29 through Sunday, November 6. Election Day is November 8.

Chuck Schumer, left, and Joe Pinion

Senator Chuck Schumer, a Democratic and the majority leader of the U.S. Senate, is running for reelection for another six-year term this year, facing Republican and Conservative Party nominee Joe Pinion, a political news commentator. 

Schumer, who has been in office since 1999, has only risen to prominence since ascending to majority leader when Democrats took the Senate through the 2020 election. He holds commanding leads in polls and fundraising against his relatively unknown opponent, often faring far better in polling than his fellow Democratic incumbents in this year’s statewide contests.

Pinion and Schumer faced each other Sunday night in the only debate of the race, on Spectrum News and moderated by anchors Errol Louis and Susan Arbetter at Union College in Schenectady. During the hour-long debate, the two candidates offered differing perspectives on a wide variety of issues and political dynamics.

Schumer, who hails from Brooklyn and was previously in the U.S. House of Representatives, is one of New York’s most popular elected officials and an omnipresent one, known for his annual tour of every one of the state’s 62 counties, now 23 years in a row.

When Democrats took control of the 50-50 U.S. Senate given the vice president’s tie-breaking vote when needed, Schumer became the first Jewish official and the first New Yorker to become majority leader. Since then, he has delivered a series of major victories for the party, including several high-profile and big-dollar bills that have benefited his home state. Though he once described himself as an “angry centrist” and was viewed with suspicion from some on the left who believe he may be too moderate or aligned with business interests, he has since championed many progressive priorities including fighting for climate action, strengthening the social safety net, forgiving student loan debt, decriminalizing marijuana, reforming the immigration system, and more.

Under Schumer’s leadership, in partnership with President Joe Biden and the U.S. House majority, Democrats have passed a slew of major bills — occasionally with some Republican support — that have had or are projected to have significant impact on the country and state. Some of them have faced fierce criticism from Republicans, of course.

That list includes the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan to provide economic stimulus and relief from the Covid-19 pandemic, the bipartisan $1.2 trillion Bipartisan Infrastructure Law enacted in November last year, which will send about $27 billion to New York State alone, and the Safer Communities Act, the first major gun control legislation in decades. Schumer also negotiated the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, the strongest piece of legislation to tackle climate change to ever pass Congress and one that is bound to assist in New York’s own climate goals. Pinion, like other Republicans, has criticized Schumer, Biden, and Democrats for what they call overspending, and not doing enough to combat inflation.

Schumer also successfully championed the CHIPS & Science legislation, to provide federal semiconductor manufacturing incentives, which facilitated Governor Kathy Hochul’s Green CHIPS program that will create thousands of jobs in the state. (Following those actions, Micron Technology announced it would make a massive investment in New York to build the largest semiconductor fabrication facility in the country, creating tens of thousands of jobs.)

Schumer’s reelection ads often focus on his effort to “Save Our Stages,” the major federal funding that he secured to buoy performance venues from Broadway to comedy clubs and beyond.

A Yonkers native, Pinion is the first Black person to be a major party’s Senate nominee in New York. He has been a nonprofit worker, entrepreneur, and television news commentator. Most recently, he hosted his own show, “Saturday Agenda,” on the conservative cable channel Newsmax.

According to his Linkedin profile, after graduating from Colgate University in 2006, he co-founded Fandome.com, a sports video and news platform where he served as director of content acquisition till 2011. In 2013, he became director of youth development at Morris Heights Health Center in the Bronx, working there till 2016. Since then, he has been a national spokesperson for RePublicEN, a right-leaning group that promotes free market ideas to tackle climate change. He has been a board member of the Listen First Project since 2018 and, in 2018, he launched the Pinion Media Group, a digital multimedia company.

Pinion’s campaign website lists no accomplishments, agenda, or priorities. But in an October interview with WENY News, he said that if elected his main focus areas will be improving education, creating a constitutional right to literacy, establishing school choice in law nationwide, reducing disparities in rural health care, and tackling the flow of illegal drugs into the country. He’s run against Schumer with a significant focus on school choice and his support for charter schools, which Democrats often oppose.

Pinion also seemed confident that his challenge has Schumer worried. “The reason we haven't elected a Republican to the United States Senate? It is because we haven't really tried," Pinion told WENY News. “Chuck Schumer is running ads right now in Syracuse, in Utica, in Elmira, all across Chemung. He's not doing it because he just wants to spend money. He's doing it because he recognizes that he has a real fight.”

Debate Differences
At Sunday’s Spectrum News debate, Schumer and Pinion differed on a variety of issues, including the success of Schumer’s record as Senate Majority Leader, the position he has held for nearly two years.

Schumer touted his work leading the Senate and working with a Democratic House majority and president, including bringing massive amounts of federal funding back to New York, “the most important climate change bill ever,” including help for home energy cost-reduction, the bipartisan gun safety legislation, student debt relief he said he pressured President Biden to order, and more.

Pinion took on what he called the Schumer “legend,” saying while the long-time New York senator “an exceptional politician” but not all he’s cracked up to be in terms of delivering for the state. He criticized Schumer over high costs of living and limited economic opportunity, among other issues.

At the debate, Schumer pointed to the covid pandemic as the key driver of supply chain problems and inflation across the globe, and outlined steps that he and the federal government have taken to bring down costs, such as movement on job-creation, capping prescription drug costs, and building renewable energy. Pinion, on the other hand, pointed to the trillions of dollars in federal pandemic-response as a key driver of inflation.

Pinion vowed to protect Social Security and said that if Republicans are to pass further tax cuts, they should focus on the middle class, calling for completely redoing the tax code.

Schumer said Sunday night that if President Biden runs again in 2024 he plans to support him. Pinion, asked about former President Trump running again, sidestepped the question to discuss his signature issue of education.

In their ‘cross-examination round,’ Schumer referenced the racist Buffalo massacre earlier this year and asked Pinion about whether he would join him in supporting an assault weapons ban. Pinion said “no” and focused his answer on removing “illegal guns” from the streets, finding the points where legal guns become illegal guns and crafting solutions.

After mentioning the crises of poverty, crime, and educational failure in New York, Pinion asked Schumer about why he hasn’t prioritized “standing up for New Yorkers.” Schumer discussed measures he has led on to address the issues Pinion mentioned, including, for example, the expanded child tax credit that he said he and many Democrats wanted to make permanent but Republicans were against.

Pinion, who is anti-abortion, has repeatedly called reproductive rights a states issue, indicating he does not think it should be legislated at the federal level in the wake of the Supreme Court overturnng Roe v. Wade. At Sunday’s debate, Pinion repeatedly declined to give his stance on abortion rights, instead calling it “settled law in New York state” and saying “I do not support a national ban.”

Schumer is staunchly pro-choice and hopes to see Democrats retain and grow their House and Senate majorities in order to codify Roe abortion rights into federal law in 2023. “If people don’t want that national ban [on abortion], which would overrule New York’s law, they have to elect Democrats to the Senate because we want to preserve a woman’s right to choose with Roe and all its protections.”

Polling, Money, and the State of the Race
A Siena College poll of 707 likely voters released October 18 had Schumer leading with 57% of the vote compared to Pinion’s 37%. In the poll, 53% gave Schumer a favorable rating, 40% gave him an unfavorable rating while only 7% either didn’t know him or refused to answer either way.

For Pinion, his favorable and unfavorable rating was matched, at just 8%, while 84% did not know him or did not weigh in.

Schumer has raised more than $36 million since January 2020 for his reelection campaign, and has spent about $26.5 million. As of September 30, he had more than $20 million in cash on hand. Seeing little threat to his own chances, Schumer has been funneling funds from those deep coffers into Democratic races across the country to defend the party’s precarious hold on the Senate.

Pinion has raised just under $400,000 for his campaign and has spent nearly all of it. As of September 30, he had just $7,533 left and owed nearly $65,000 in campaign debt.

Pinion defeating Schumer would be nothing short of a miracle in deep blue New York, especially given Schumer's fundraising, name recognition, and popularity. The state hasn’t elected a Republican Senator in 30 years, since Al D'Amato served three terms in office and lost to Schumer in 1998, and no GOP nominee has won any statewide race since 2002 (a streak gubernatorial hopeful Rep. Lee Zeldin appears to have the best chance to break of any Republican nominee this year).

Election Day is November 8; early voting runs October 29-November 6.

Ben Max contributed to this article.

Sochie Nnaemeka (photo: @MaketheRoadAct)

October 26, 2022 - Max Politics Podcast: The Working Families Party Works to Keep Its Ballot Line, Win Key Races

Sochie Nnaemeka, director of the New York Working Families Party, joined the show to discuss the WFP's campaign to keep its ballot line, key races it is focused on in the 2022 election, its relationship with Gov. Kathy Hochul, and more.

Listen to the conversation and let us know what you think, on Twitter @TweetBenMax. You can listen to the show through the embedded audio below or download the episode wherever you get your podcasts at Max Politics.

Letitia James and Michael Henry

Since Attorney General Letitia James dropped her short run for Governor and announced her bid for a second term as New York State’s top legal official, she has spent limited time on the campaign trail. James, a Democrat whose work as attorney general has elevated her to national prominence, has had commanding polling and fundraising leads over her little-known opponent and, in a break from her fellow statewide incumbents, has declined to even debate him.

Her Republican challenger, commercial litigator Michael Henry from Queens, is running as a political outsider on a platform based on fighting street crime, corruption in Albany, and the rising cost of living.

James is seeking four more years based on what she sees as a series of accomplishments including defending the state's gun laws, abortion access, and environmental protections, as well as taking on former President Donald Trump and Governor Andrew Cuomo.

After more than two years of pandemic life and crime increases, typically-secure Democrats, including Governor Kathy Hochul and a host of congressional candidates, are feeling heat from their Republican opponents. While polling in the attorney general race has been limited, there is some indication that it has narrowed as well. The race has proceeded with relatively little public attention for a statewide office even for a contest with an incumbent running.

James has led in fundraising and polling throughout the election cycle against Henry, an unknown name in New York politics who is riding a wave of public dissatisfaction that has made Democrats uneasy. Hochul, James, and other Democratic incumbents have been seeking to shape the narrative around reproductive rights and the health of democracy while responding to anxiety around guns and violence.

The Attorney General is tasked with leading the state Department of Law and the hundreds of lawyers it employs to advise government decisions, defend the state in legal proceedings, and uphold the rights of New Yorkers. The role as the state's attorney involves the day to day protection of individuals as wage-earners, consumers, investors, and philanthropists, and litigation on issues relating to civil rights, public health, and the environment.

James became the first woman to be elected New York Attorney General and first woman of color elected statewide in New York when she won an open race in 2018. She won that election after a term as New York City Public Advocate, when she was the first woman of color to win citywide, and a decade representing part of Brooklyn in the City Council. Running on the Democratic and Working Families lines, James is backed by some of the state's biggest labor unions, civic organizations, and a host of moderate and progressive Democratic elected officials.

Henry owns a New York City-based law firm that deals in creditor bankruptcy and federal Perishable Agricultural Culture Commodities Act claims. He has garnered relatively little institutional support outside of securing the Republican and Conservative Party ballot lines, and endorsements from many Republican officials and law enforcement unions.

As Attorney General, James has used the office to investigate and sue former President Donald Trump, the NRA, and pharmaceutical companies fueling the opioid epidemic, among others. A report her office released last year found then-Governor Andrew Cuomo had serially sexually harassed members of his staff and others and helped lead to his resignation shortly after.

On the campaign trail, James has touted her work to curtail gun proliferation, lawsuits attempting to dissolve the NRA and hold gun companies liable for shootings. She recently sued Trump, his businesses, and members of his family for alleged fraud. While Trump was president, James initiated cases to block a number of his administration’s policies, including attempts to roll back environmental protections, abortion coverage, public benefits for immigrants, and many others. And James sued the NYPD after widespread brutality during racial justice protests in the summer of 2020.

As the state's attorney, James is also working with Hochul to defend new restrictions on concealed gun carry, recent absentee ballot expansions, and other policies.

Many of these cases will become the responsibility of the winner of this year’s election.

"I've spent my career fighting to make life better for New Yorkers," James said in a campaign ad released last week, "whether it's taking down violent gun and drug rings to keep our streets safe, protecting the rights of women, putting money back into our communities, ravaged by opioids, or standing up to corrupt politicians."

Her opponent has criticized her for backing changes to the state's bail law in 2019, which he blames for an increase in crime in recent years. That refrain is common among Republicans and moderate Democrats, including GOP gubernatorial nominee U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin and Democratic New York City Mayor Eric Adams, though there is no evidence linking bail reforms with increases in violent crime.

"You got what you wanted, it failed," Henry said of James' support for 2019 bail changes in an interview Monday on Fox 5 New York.

He also chastised James for not cracking down on pay-to-play politics, particularly involving Governor Kathy Hochul, who has raked in millions of dollars in campaign donations from entities with state business.

"Public corruption needs to be treated like the crime that it is," he said.

James' advantage as an incumbent with name-recognition is heightened in the deep-blue state, where Democrats hold all statewide offices and supermajorities in both houses of the Legislature.

Those dynamics, along with Democrats' significant voter-enrollment advantage, have only strengthened since 2002, the last time a Republican was elected to statewide office.

Through early October, James has raised roughly $10 million and spent $7 million, according to the latest filings, significantly more than the $400,000 Henry raised and $257,000 he's spent.

But recent polling has shown the gulf between Democrats and Republicans narrowing ahead of this election, and Henry, by some accounts, appears to be in the vicinity of striking distance.

A Siena College poll of likely voters in October showed James' lead narrow to 11 points, down from 16 in a September poll.

While Henry himself is not a known quantity, the topics he is campaigning on – crime and rising costs – are among the issues voters are most concerned with, according to recent polls. Meanwhile, both Trump and Cuomo have repeatedly criticized James, attacks that could impact her standing among some voters, even if she retains a strong Democratic base.

"I've been focused on my message discipline, I focus on the issues that are important to the people," he said on Fox. "In addition to crime, corruption and cost of living, in our ethnic communities education is a big issue. So I focus on what transcends party affiliation."

As he’s assailed James and her fellow Democrats, Henry has offered little in the way of policy specifics or ideas for how he would run the Attorney General’s Office differently.

Henry said he would use the office's bully pulpit to advocate the repeal of the 2019 bail reforms and the Less is More Act, a parole reform that limits incarceration for technical violations. He also said he'd introduce program bills in the State Legislature and ally with district attorneys and federal task forces to crack down on crime, without offering details.

The issues discussed on his campaign website are crime, corruption, and the deaths of nursing home residents from COVID-19.

The site lists few details on how he would use the powers of the Attorney General's Office to address his priority issues. His campaign would not provide further details on his crime, government ethics, or economic agenda, nor share information on his positions in any other areas.

"Of course, he has positions," wrote Candice Giove, Henry's campaign spokesperson, in an email response to a Gotham Gazette inquiry.

When asked to elaborate, Giove reiterated one of Henry's other grievances with James: her refusal, so far, to agree to a debate.

"Letitia James doesn't want New Yorkers to see the clear contrast between Michael Henry's vision to focus on New York's crime, corruption and cost-of-living crises and hers, which has been to focus on her own political future," Giove wrote.

Indeed, James is the only statewide official running for reelection this year who has not agreed to a general election debate with their opponent. She has made few media appearances, and declined an interview invitation from Gotham Gazette (Henry's campaign expressed interest in an interview but has yet to schedule one).

Like Hochul and other Democrats, James has appeared to respond to polling with overtures to voters concerned about crime. On Monday, she and Hochul appeared side by side to announce an increase in the use of the state's Red Flag Laws, which had passed under Cuomo but were criticized for being underutilized and strengthened by Hochul and the Legislature this year. The announcement came with a $4.6 million increase in the Attorney General's budget to support state police seeking extreme risk protection orders.

Last week, James indicated bail reform was among a range of issues that should be examined in the next legislative session to address public safety concerns. Standing next to Hochul on Monday, James reiterated that she believes it is appropriate to examine bail reform and all other pieces of the criminal justice system as needed, but clarified her position.

"To be fixated on bail reform without regards to looking at data, I think, is a misstep," she said.

Early voting is from Saturday October 29 to Sunday, November 6. Election Day is November 8.

Tom DiNapoli, left, and Paul Rodriguez

The State Comptroller is New York’s top fiscal officer, a position that has been held by Tom DiNapoli, a Democrat, for nearly 15 years. As DiNapoli seeks a fourth full-term in office this year, he is being challenged in the general election by Paul Rodriguez, the nominee of the Republican and Conservative parties and a veteran of several Wall Street financial firms.

A relatively obscure position from a public point of view, the comptroller’s office acts as a watchdog over the state’s $220 billion budget, auditing the work and spending of state agencies and public benefit corporations, reviewing and approving state contracts, managing state debt, administering the $16.7 billion payroll for state workers, and overseeing the $272 billion state pension system, one of the largest in the country. 

As New York recovers from the economic devastation of the COVID-19 pandemic, the comptroller’s office has a crucial role to play. The threat of a recession is looming on the horizon, which could hurt state revenue and stagger that recovery, which has already lagged behind other states and the country. 

DiNapoli, a former state Assemblymember, was first appointed as comptroller by the State Legislature in February 2007, shortly after the resignation of his predecessor, Alan Hevesi, under a cloud of scandal. DiNapoli went on to win statewide election three times, winning in 2014 and 2018 with the most votes of any statewide candidate. Polls show him with a commanding lead over his opponent this year in a race where New York Republicans have put very few resources as they mostly focus on the governor’s office.

DiNapoli’s Pitch
As he runs for reelection, DiNapoli, who is also running on the Working Families Party line, has touted himself as a “steady hand” in helping mind the state’s finances, even though he hasn’t always been the loudest voice in the room. “I've proven from when I first started, that I've had a steady hand at the job,” he said in an October 20 interview on Gotham Gazette’s Max Politics podcast. “I'm not the flashiest guy in politics, this isn't the flashiest office in politics. But…we are so fundamental in our work to keeping New York State moving in the right direction.”

In his time in office, DiNapoli has slowly taken a more “activist investor” approach to the state’s pension fund, using his position to encourage companies to diversify their boards, urging them to take action to tackle climate change, investing in green industries, and methodically divesting funds from the fossil fuel industry. In June 2019, he released a Climate Action Plan for the pension fund, which included a $20 billion commitment to sustainable investments and a goal of reaching net zero emissions in its portfolio by 2040. 

DiNapoli, who hails from Long Island, has insisted that he brings a “mainstream New York” perspective to his strategy and not a partisan one. “The comptroller’s office is not going to be the place that you do the potshots, you throw the bombs, that's not what the job is about,” he said on the podcast, responding to frequent criticism, including from Rodriguez in this year’s election, that he is not outspoken enough in holding his fellow Democrats to account. “If you start doing that, you really lose credibility, you then just become a partisan. So I think we strike the right balance.”

DiNapoli has sought to strengthen his office’s oversight powers and called for more anti-corruption legislation. He has supported bills to fully restore his office’s authority to review certain state contracts in advance, power stripped under former Governor Andrew Cuomo, and also to ban companies seeking state contracts from making campaign contributions in certain periods. 

DiNapoli has also supported campaign finance reform, long calling for public financing of elections and significantly lower contribution limits for statewide officials (In 2020, the State Legislature finally approved a public financing system that will go into effect for the next election cycle.)

Though he does not have a direct hand in approving the state budget, DiNapoli’s office affords him a bully pulpit from which he has called for more prudent fiscal management by successive gubernatorial administrations and the Legislature. He has been a consistent proponent of building up the state’s rainy day funds while also pushing for greater transparency in a budget that is often filled with pork barrel spending.  

DiNapoli said that the pandemic has informed his recent work, as he has directed his office to focus on New York City trends, tracking federal relief funds, reporting on crucial revenue streams, auditing the MTA, and assessing inequities in housing affordability, food insecurity, and health outcomes. His office has issued a number of reports in recent years that have impacted the public policy discussion in notable ways, especially its examination of MTA finances.

DiNapoli’s campaign also boasts other accomplishments, including exposing corruption and theft of taxpayer dollars that led to almost 300 arrests and recovering more than $80 million in taxpayer money; working with the attorney general to create a Joint Task Force on Public Integrity, which led to recovering millions of dollars and the arrests of dozens of officials and contractors who stole or misused public funds; creating a new school accountability initiative to audit schools and Boards of Cooperative Educational Services statewide; creating a new Fiscal Stress Monitoring System to assess local government financial conditions; and developing a program to give women and minority asset managers the opportunity to partner with the state pension fund.

“I'm certainly mindful that I'm not a legislator. I'm not the governor. So in terms of making decisions on policy or budget, that's not the comptroller's role,” he said on the podcast, “but I do think we have an important opportunity to provide a thoughtful analysis and information to help guide policymakers, elected officials, and I think, equally important, having the public be informed.”

Rodriguez’s Pitch
Rodriguez is running because he believes that DiNapoli has sat on the sidelines as the state has been plagued by corruption and wasteful spending over the last 15 years. His campaign platform is focused on tackling pay-to-play politics, exposing fraud and waste in state spending, professionalizing the management of the state pension fund, enhancing transparency about state debt and pension obligations, increasing oversight of the budget, and investing in New York businesses. 

Rodriguez is banking on his experience as a Wall Street investor for more than 25 years, which included stints at major firms including Salomon Brothers, Merrill Lynch, UBS, BBVA, and Morgan Stanley. He has previously served as an executive board member of the Manhattan Hispanic Chamber of Commerce and the Brooklyn-Kings County Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, and as president of the New York Young Republican Club. Currently, Rodriguez works in fundraising and development for the ​​Archdiocese of New York.

This isn’t Rodriguez’s first run for office. In 2004, he unsuccessfully challenged U.S. Rep. Nydia Velazquez, a Democrat, and he was the Conservative Party nominee for New York City Comptroller last year.  

Though Rodriguez has expressed personal respect for DiNapoli, he has been critical of his tenure. The comptroller, he argues, has turned a blind eye to corruption in Albany, failed to adequately use his oversight authority to rein in state spending, and has taken an inappropriately ideological approach to pension investments. 

“The unfortunate truth is that during the 15 years that Mr. DiNapoli has been in office, it has coincided with…one of the worst waves of corruption in state government,” he said during an October 20 appearance on Gotham Gazette’s Max Politics podcast. He said DiNapoli was first assigned the office because, “He's not going to rock the boat, he's not going to really stick his neck out.” 

Though Rodriguez concedes that the comptroller doesn’t have authority over the state budget, he has said he will be a louder voice for accountability. “Yes, there are limitations but there's no limitations on that bully pulpit and how you utilize it and how you call out the people in power,” he said.

He has even called for either banning or severely limiting political contributions from companies or individuals seeking state business, rather than a blackout period that DiNapoli has supported. “If you want to instill confidence in New Yorkers that they have a government that is clean and that is accountable to its people, you can't have this sort of thing,” he said. 

As with other Republican candidates, Rodriguez has also been focused on public safety, which he says is essential to ensuring that New York remains a competitive business environment. “​​One of the necessary pillars for economic development for the city or for the state is public safety because you don't want to work, invest or or live in a place where you don't feel safe,” he said. 

Rodriguez has raised concerns about the state’s high tax rates, particularly with inflation at record highs and the specter of a looming recession. He has, for instance, opposed the congestion pricing system set to be instituted in New York City, which he said will punish drivers as it helps raise capital funds for the MTA. “You can only squeeze blood from a stone only so far,” he said. “You can’t expect to simply solve all your problems with higher taxation.” But, he did not offer an alternative for the $15 billion in capital funds for MTA repairs and upgrades that congestion pricing is set to fund.

Among Rodriguez’s criticisms of DiNapoli is his reliance on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) investing in guiding the pension fund. Rodriguez has noted that the concept originated on Wall Street but has “degenerated over the years from a consideration or a tool in part of your investment management decisions to sort of an end game in and of itself, and to what I maybe crudely call a box-checking exercise.”

He also questioned DiNapoli’s focus on climate-related investments. “I certainly think that the whole issue of climate change as a whole should not be the primary driving force behind all the investment decisions that are made in the portfolio,” he said.

Rodriguez faces somewhat overwhelming odds in the race. Not only is he far behind in the polls, his campaign has shown almost no fundraising or spending. 

Key Differences Between DiNapoli & Rodriguez
The differences between the two candidates were apparent at the sole debate in the race on October 19, hosted by Spectrum News. It was a relatively civil affair, as neither candidate tried to harshly attack the other and they even shared moments of agreement. 

“When the comptroller's office was mired in scandal, a bipartisan coalition of Republicans and Democrats came together selected me to restore integrity and credibility to the office,” DiNapoli said in his opening remarks, arguing through the debate that he had accomplished that goal and that his experience matters in the trying times the state now faces. 

Rodriguez said the public is barely aware of the comptroller’s office or the role he plays in state government. “I think part of this reason is because the office has for several years prioritized political activism through its pension plan, rather than its oversight powers to go after real corruption…I think we need a new direction and new leadership,” he said.

The candidates weighed in on a range of issues from their approach to preparing for a potential fiscal downturn and their pension investment strategies to taxes, economic development, ethics, gambling revenue, marijuana industry subsidies, the Buffalo Bills stadium deal, and more.  

DiNapoli expressed optimism in shepherding the state pension fund through a possible recession with his current investment strategy. “We've weathered tough storms before…I’m confident that even if there's a downturn, short term for the markets, we'll be able to weather it,” he said. “The retirement security that we have guaranteed to our public workers, to our public retirees, we can deliver on that.” 

He also later defended his activist investing practices. “I'm not interested in short-term quarterly results,” he said. “That's kind of the Wall Street mentality that got us in trouble when the Great Recession happened. I'm interested in long-term results and good corporate practices.”

Rodriguez, however, cautioned against DiNapoli’s approach, insisting that pension returns are being overshadowed by inflation. “I don't believe that public pension plans should be managed like private activist hedge funds,” he said. 

When asked by the debate moderators, Rodriguez said he would support an extension of the state’s temporary gas tax suspension, which was approved earlier this year to limit the effects of inflation. DiNapoli did not take a definitive position on the issue. “I think that's a decision the governor and the Legislature are going to have to make,” he said. 

Both candidates promised to closely monitor and audit the Buffalo Bills stadium deal, which was a last-minute addition to the state budget and will award $600 million in state subsidies to the stadium along with $250 million more from Erie County.  

“[A]s we've done with other economic development programs, I'm sure this will be a part of our consideration when we do future audits when it's actually implemented,” said DiNapoli, who has been particularly critical of the state’s economic development strategy under former Governor Andrew Cuomo and now into Hochul’s tenure. “Hopefully with the Hochul administration, we'll see an improvement in that regard,” he added. 

“[O]bviously it is the taxpayers who are basically getting the short end of the stick for this,” said Rodriguez. “We want to keep the Bills here, but we want to do it in a proper way, not just simply giving taxpayer money away to billionaires.”

The two were also on the same page in criticizing the governor and Legislature for awarding $350 million in economic development funds to Long Island in the state budget without specific purposes. “When has giving a politician or a bureaucrat just cash unallocated for unaccounted for, with no oversight, when has that made them or behave in a way that's more honest or ethical? It really hasn't,” Rodriguez said. 

“There should not be these large lump sums that have no definition as part of the state budget process. It's not the proper way to do business,” said DiNapoli, who added that the proper way to allocate such funds is to determine projects ahead of time and line out the expenses in the budget agreement.

With the state having legalized mobile sports betting, they both agreed that the state needs to set aside revenue raised from it to help those with gambling addictions, which is part of the law. And they both expressed some concern about the state’s support for the marijuana industry. 

“I don't think it's the right thing for us to be involved in,” Rodriguez said. “If we think gambling is bad, how is investing in cannabis any better, and particularly when we've divested in many instances from tobacco?” 

“I don't want to see the state become the major subsidizer of the industry,” DiNapoli said, referring to some of the ways in which the state law legalizing adult use marijuana includes start-up funding for businesses.

There were other key areas of disagreement. While DiNapoli supported prevailing wage requirements for all state economic development deals, Rodriguez did not.

DiNapoli is a strong supporter of the $4.2 billion environmental bond act, which is going to be on the November ballot for voter approval. Rodriguez opposes it. “I think we are not at a time right now where we should be adding more debt to the balance sheet of the state,” Rodriguez said. 

Polls and Money
Polls currently show DiNapoli sailing to reelection. A Siena College poll released October 18 had him in the lead with 54% of the vote to Rodriguez’s 30%, remaining steady from a previous poll that had him leading 52-29%. He had an overwhelming lead among Democratic voters (82-6%) and was also ahead with independent voters (44-32%). He was favored by New York City residents as well as by voters upstate and in the suburbs. 

Though he still remains largely unknown to voters, 66% of them, he nonetheless fared better than Rodriguez, who was unknown to 86% of voters. 

One of the benefits of incumbency is that DiNapoli also has a massive campaign finance  advantage. He has raised a total of $3.6 million this election cycle and has spent nearly $2.4 million. He had about $2 million in cash on hand, as of October 7.

Meanwhile, according to the State Board of Elections, Rodriguez has reported only $3,184 in campaign donations, and has spent less than $11. Rodriguez’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment seeking clarity on his fundraising.

Election Day is November 8; absentee balloting has begun and early voting will be October 29-November 6.