Gov. Hochul with electric vehicles (photo: office of Governor Kathy Hochul)

In a race with many clear differences, there may be no issue on which Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul and Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin are offering more divergent visions in this year’s New York gubernatorial election than on climate and environmental policy.

While Hochul seeks a full term to continue implementation of New York’s sweeping shift to renewable energy and advance many policies related to environmental protection, Zeldin has been critical of many of the climate policies underway, has little to say about moving toward a greener grid, and instead wants to rollback the state’s prohibition on fracking.

New York State is pursuing an ambitious overarching climate policy, moving towards a fully green energy grid and economy, building out renewable energy infrastructure, investing in resilience against extreme weather events and in environmental justice for communities hardest hit by pollution and climate change.

The state’s climate policy has been set by Democrats who have held the executive and legislative branches together in recent years. The State Legislature advanced an aggressive climate law, 2019’s Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, that mandates greenhouse gas emission reductions and shifts to renewable energy, as well as many other related policies, working with former Governor Andrew Cuomo and his successor, Hochul.

As Hochul, a moderate liberal from Western New York, runs for her first full term as governor this year, she has touted her record on climate, environmental, and energy policies, made major announcements, and approved additional investments in climate action. That includes her championing of the $4.2 billion environmental bond act that is also on the fall ballot for voters to approve or disapprove.

Zeldin, however, has a barebones climate agenda and has threatened to reverse several of the steps the state has taken towards a greener future. He has instead focused on the economic and home-grown energy benefits of fracking, which the state banned by executive action in 2015 and legislatively in 2020. And Zeldin, a Long Island conservative, has been critical of other state climate policies, whether enacted or proposed, that seek to move New York away from fossil fuels and towards electric cars and buildings powered by wind, solar, hydro, and other renewable energies.

As with other areas where Democrats have moved the state in recent years, Zeldin has called their climate policies overreach that threaten to make it more expensive for New Yorkers to live here.

Though Hochul has not advanced a new climate vision during the governor’s race, she has continued the significant work that is already underway. She is pitching voters on both her climate-related decisions in her year-plus as governor and plans to move aggressively on climate policies if given a full term.

The state is in the process of implementing the 2019 climate law, a monumental piece of legislation that sets the state on the road to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by requiring a 40% reduction in emissions by 2030 and an 85% reduction by 2050. It also mandates that 70% of the state’s energy should come from renewable sources by 2030, and 100% by 2040. The state Climate Action Council created by the law is set to release its plan for achieving those goals by January next year, and is currently in the process of taking feedback and revising its draft scoping plan.

Questions remain about what that plan will and should look like, especially how the state will fund the implementation of the CLCPA. Progressives want to see the state move as quickly as possible, investing in green jobs and setting strict carbon restrictions, while conservatives have questioned the pace of the energy transition which, as the Empire Center argues, the state “cannot do so cheaply or maintain grid reliability.”

“The goal is inexpensive, reliable and non-polluting electricity production. But we can’t have all three,” said James Hanley, senior policy analyst at the Empire Center. “The practical options are either inexpensive and reliable or reliable and non-polluting.” Some advocates have called for, among other things, new taxes on the uber wealthy to support the legislation, which Hochul has resisted.  

Hochul, for her part, included several significant climate action measures in the $220 billion state budget passed earlier this year, her lone budget as governor thus far. That included allocating a $500 million investment to offshore wind energy infrastructure and $400 million to the Environmental Protection Fund, among other items.

The budget also included the $4.2 billion Clean Water, Clean Air, Green Jobs Environmental Bond Act, which was first proposed by Cuomo and then increased by $1.2 billion by Hochul. The Act is headed to a ballot referendum in the November general election and has broad support in public polling – a September 28 Siena College poll showed that 55% of voters said they would vote for it and only 26% said they would vote against it. About $500 million of the Bond Act will be dedicated to support the purchase of zero-emissions school buses by school districts statewide, while other spending it funds would go to clean water, storm resiliency, and other projects.

"Under Governor Hochul, New York has led the nation in implementing the most aggressive plan to combat climate change and create good-paying clean energy jobs,” said Jen Goodman, a Hochul spokesperson, in a statement. “With climate change being our nations’ greatest threat, Lee Zeldin has promised to roll back the progress Governor Hochul has made, putting the health and safety of our environment and communities at risk.”

Among her many climate-related moves as governor, Hochul has advanced two major transmission line projects that will bring renewable energy from Canada and Upstate New York, and moved ahead on offshore wind energy infrastructure and enacting regulations mandating only zero-emissions passenger vehicles are sold in the state by 2035. Hochul has been clear that she has no intentions of rolling back the state's fracking ban.

According to the governor’s office, the state has more than 120 solar, land-based wind, and offshore wind projects under development that will be able to power more than 66% of the state’s electricity once completed. Renewable energy projects underway will power 5.5 million out of 7 million homes in the state. Earlier this year, Hochul announced a new framework for the state to achieve at least ten gigawatts of distributed solar energy by 2030, enough to annually power almost 700,000 homes, the state says. She has announced more than $1 billion in investments in water infrastructure over the last year, including hundreds of millions for municipalities to improve water quality and public health.

Hochul has also worked with the Public Service Commission and New York State Energy Research and Development Authority to direct utilities to invest about $1 billion in 2022 toward decarbonizing New York’s building stock. And she successfully championed legislation to update the New York State Energy Conservation Construction Code to increase energy efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In July, the Department of Environmental Conservation launched a statewide mobile air monitoring initiative to map air pollution.

Hochul’s record has earned her the endorsement of the New York League of Conservation Voters (NYLCV) and the Sierra Club Atlantic Chapter. “We need a Governor who knows that a healthy environment, fighting climate change and clean energy go hand in glove with a strong economy and vibrant communities and Kathy Hochul has been delivering on that promise,” said Julie Tighe, President of the NYLCV, in a statement accompanying the endorsement. 

[Read: What is Kathy Hochul's Gubernatorial Campaign Platform?]

But many environmental advocates say that the governor and the state need to act faster and at a greater scale. Ahead of the end of the legislative session this year, the Climate Can’t Wait coalition, composed of 43 groups from across the state, demanded movement on a slate of climate action bills, most of which ultimately failed to pass. Some of them Hochul had included in her 2022 agenda but not advanced through the Legislature, while others Hochul has yet to embrace, a source of criticism from her left in the Democratic primary earlier this year that she won handily.

Among them was the All Electric Buildings Act, which would ban new gas and oil hookups in new buildings statewide starting in 2024 (Hochul has promised to revisit the bill next year) and the Build Public Renewables Act, which would, among other things, allow the New York Power Authority to own and build new renewable energy infrastructure (Hochul has not expressed support for the bill). 

Advocates have also pushed Hochul to sign a bill passed by the Legislature that placed a two-year moratorium on “proof of work” cryptocurrency mining, an energy-intensive virtual currency process that has been broadly criticized for its adverse effects on the environment. The bill would specifically put a two-year hold on re-commissioning shuttered fossil-fuel plants to support cryptomining. Hochul has refused to say whether she will sign it, while also denying that her lack of a decision has been influenced by massive campaign contributions from the cryptocurrency industry. That has been one of the main lines of attack against Hochul from progressives, including her primary opponent, New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, who put forward a detailed climate action plan in his unsuccessful campaign against her. 

Zeldin, on the other hand, has a long record of opposing environmental legislation and even questioning the scope of climate change. “It would be productive if we could get to what is real and what is not real…I'm not sold yet on the whole argument that we have as serious a problem as other people are,” he said in a 2014 interview with the Newsday editorial board. Meanwhile, Zeldin has touted some of his record in terms of securing or supporting some local anti-pollution or environmental cleanup measures that related to his Long Island district. Still, Zeldin has received a great deal of criticism from environmental groups for his voting record. 

In his 2022 campaign for governor, Zeldin has proposed a three-point plan to lower energy costs, which includes reversing the state’s moratorium on fracking, building new gas pipelines, and suspending the state gas tax. Fracking, or hydraulic fracturing, to extract oil and gas has been banned in New York State since 2015, when Governor Cuomo passed an executive order to that effect, which was codified by the state Legislature in 2020. 

“By safely extracting natural resources and approving new pipelines, new jobs would be created, our state would become energy independent, new revenue would be generated, communities would be revitalized, and energy costs would be reduced,” his campaign website states on the page dedicated to “Protecting Your Wallets.” Zeldin’s campaign website has no page for climate or environmental policy, and makes no mention of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, building renewable energy, or any other efforts to fight or adapt to climate change.

Zeldin has also opposed the All Electric Building Act and regulatory action by Hochul to require only zero-emissions vehicles be sold by 2035. “Temperatures are DROPPING & 1-party rule in Albany is trying to RAISE the cost of heating your home by banning natural gas hookups & pushing through more of their far-left climate agenda with S6843A to deny permits for new buildings constructed after 2023 unless it’s electric,” he tweeted in January. 

“Another of Hochul's out-of-touch ideas is to force NYers to only buy electric cars,” he also tweeted at the time. “She signed a bill that would ban the sale of cars with combustion engines by 2035. What does she have to say to the swath of everyday NYers who can’t afford or just don’t want an electric car?” 

When Hochul was headed to a news conference for her zero-emission vehicles announcement on September 30, Zeldin again criticized her. “Such a hypocrite. @KathyHochul flies around New York in a gas guzzling, taxpayer funded plane to then get in a gas guzzling SUV to drive her to a photo op in an electric car that she doesn’t actually use,” he tweeted. 

He has also come out against congestion pricing in New York City, which Hochul supports and is leading implementation of, and he is seeking to use it as something of a wedge issue in the election.  

Zeldin hasn’t taken a position on the Environmental Bond Act and has not responded to several Gotham Gazette inquiries over the course of months seeking more information about his stance on that, other climate policies, or any semblance of an agenda on renewable energy development and related issues. Notably, the last environmental bond act, approved by 55% of voters in 1996, was championed by Republican Governor George Pataki, and provided $1.75 billion to protect the state’s air, water and natural resources. [Update: when asked about the bond act the day before Election Day, Zeldin told WNYC's Jon Campbell that he is supportive of it.]

[Read: What Is Lee Zeldin's Gubernatorial Campaign Platform?]

Zeldin, who has been in Congress since 2015 after a stint in the State Senate, has repeatedly railed against Democratic efforts to tackle climate change and has a lengthy record of voting against environmental legislation. The League of Conservation Voters, in its annual scorecard of congressional votes, gave Zeldin a 17% score in 2021 for his votes on pro-environment legislation, and a 14% lifetime score for voting in favor for just 31 out of 215 bills (which also include some bills on broader goals identified by the environmental group, including several pro-democracy measures opposed by Zeldin, who voted against certifying Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential election). 

Zeldin recently voted against the Inflation Reduction Act, which passed Congress in August and has been hailed as the strongest piece of legislation dealing with climate change ever to be approved by the federal government. For New York, the legislation could mean billions in funding for clean energy infrastructure and significant aid in accomplishing the goals of the CLCPA.

When criticized by Hochul for opposing the Inflation Reduction Act, Zeldin said on Twitter, “CORRECTION ‘Governor’: I just voted NO because the bill sucks. Being that it raises taxes, adds 87,000 new IRS agents, & spends hundreds of billions of dollars our country doesn’t have on far-left policies our country can’t afford, I’m not surprised you’d blindly endorse it.”

As noted by Zeldin’s Record, a website purportedly created by Zeldin constituents, the congressman has voted against clean water and air standards even though the Long Island region has been found to have some of the highest rates of contaminants in its drinking water and Suffolk County has been rated as among the worst air quality in the state.

Assemblymember Mike Lawler (photo: campaign of Mike Lawler)

October 11, 2022 - Max Politics Podcast: Mike Lawler on His Campaign to Flip NY-17, Unseat DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney

Republican Mike Lawler joined the show to discuss his campaign for Congress in the new NY-17, a Hudson Valley district where he is seeking to not only flip a seat blue to red but unseat Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair.

Listen to the conversation and let us know what you think, on Twitter @TweetBenMax. You can listen to the show through the embedded audio below or download the episode wherever you get your podcasts at Max Politics.

Get ready to vote (photo: Michael Appleton/Mayoral Photography Office)

September 29, 2022 - Max Politics Podcast: Resetting the 2022 Race for New York Governor with Under 6 Weeks To Go

Bob Hardt, New York Political Director for Spectrum News, joined the show to discuss where the 2022 race for New York Governor stands with under six weeks until Election Day, what the latest polling says, how Gov. Hochul and Rep. Lee Zeldin are positioning themselves, whether there will be a debate, and more.

Listen to the conversation and let us know what you think, on Twitter @TweetBenMax. You can listen to the show through the embedded audio below or download the episode wherever you get your podcasts at Max Politics.

A ground-breaking (photo: Ed Reed/Mayoral Photography Office)

New York City has an acute housing shortage, with emergency-level lows in apartment vacancies, especially for units affordable to most New Yorkers, and astronomical rents, a homelessness crisis, and halting recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

At the core of the city’s housing supply deficit is a lengthy and cumbersome land use decision-making process, a bureaucratic maze of local and state regulations combined with political dynamics that have often hampered housing production. The challenges to both housing and economic development, with recommendations for how to overcome them, were newly-examined in a recently-released report from the nonprofit Citizens Budget Commission (CBC).

On Wednesday, CBC assembled government officials and other experts to analyze the major obstacles to achieving needed growth and offer various solutions to tackle housing scarcity and the related pressures it causes. During the morning event held over zoom, nearly 200 audience members heard from CBC report author Sean Campion, New York City Deputy Mayor Maria Torres-Springer, and a panel of current and former government officials and land-use experts.

The panel featured Vicki Been, faculty director of the NYU Furman Center and former deputy mayor for housing and economic development; Dan Garodnick, chair of the New York City Planning Commission and Commissioner of the Department of City Planning; RuthAnne Visnauskas, president and CEO of New York State Homes and Community Renewal; former City Council Member Margaret Chin; Jacob Elghanayan, senior vice president of TF Cornerstone, a real estate development firm; and Michelle de la Uz, executive director of the Fifth Avenue Committee, an affordable housing developer. Ben Max, executive editor of Gotham Gazette, moderated the panel.

Torres-Springer, the Deputy Mayor for Economic and Workforce Development and former city housing commissioner, spoke about the city’s housing crisis, one on which there is broad consensus, and how the administration of Mayor Eric Adams has begun tackling it.

“I think that this crisis is manmade,” she said. “It is a casualty of institutional failures and a status quo that is calcified by a regulatory environment that costs too much in time and money, a political environment that allows people to say, ‘Well, it's not my problem,’ and a civic environment that too often condones finger-pointing, hand-wringing, and pearl-clutching.”

The solution, she said, requires “a whole-of-society approach.”

CBC identified several issues with the land use-decision making process in its report authored by Campion, ​the organization’s Director of Housing and Economic Development Studies. Among them were that 40% of discretionary land use applications are either rejected or withdrawn, the median approval time for an application is about two-and-a-half years (longer than other comparable municipalities), and that the long approval process increases development costs 11-16%, adding about $67,000 to the cost of each new apartment unit. 

Those issues arise from, among other things, the State Environmental Quality Review Act (SEQRA), which requires environmental reviews of projects, lawsuits from private citizens that can challenge those reviews, an increasingly complex process of conducting those reviews at the city level, and the local political landscape that incentivizes City Council members to prioritize their short-term interests and local concerns (often of a loud minority) over long-term and citywide needs. 

Referencing shootings in the city, Torres-Springer emphasized that the housing crisis is its own form of “silent violence” that affects New Yorkers. “Far too many people in our city are suffering in silence,” she said. “It is a violence that causes people to make unfathomable decisions about whether to pay rent or to eat, to keep a roof over their heads or to get needed medication. A violence that causes the children, the sick, the elderly to wonder where they are going to sleep at night.”

She laid out some of the efforts that the Adams administration has taken to tackle inefficiencies in housing production since the mayor announced his housing plan in June. She said the administration has launched a Building and Land use Approval Streamlining Task force (BLAST) that is spearheading an effort by 15 different city agencies to examine changes in internal city processes that will expedite the land use review and approval process. She also said the administration is crafting proposals for the State Legislature, which will return to session in Albany in January, and that it will unveil a report on all those efforts “in just a few weeks.”

Among the main items for which the city is seeking state help is a replacement for the expired 421-a affordable housing tax credit, “the loss of which is already creating a decline in applications for new rental housing construction in our city,” Torres-Springer said.

[Read: 'Housing Cannot Be A Privilege': Mayor Adams Releases Highly-Anticipated Housing Plan]

The panelists broadly agreed on the importance of speeding up land-use decision-making and tackling New York’s housing crisis (which extends beyond the five boroughs), including issues identified in CBC’s report. They differed somewhat on what they see as the largest obstacles to development, particularly housing production, in the city.

“We're really trying to control something, in some ways, that is multifactored and many of them are sort of uncontrollable,” said Visnauskas, the state housing commissioner, noting that besides the state environmental review hurdles, housing construction costs and other regulatory costs have also increased. She said that the state is working to expedite the development process to reduce costs, but she did not specify how exactly. 

“The biggest problem from my perspective is that the environmental review and land use process overall makes it easier to opt for ‘no,’” said Garodnick, insisting that the City Environmental Quality Review (CEQR) process is “too long and too expensive” and that the city can and will simplify the CEQR manual for developers. He also pledged other fixes within the city’s control to speed up processes, some of which will come from the BLAST process Torres-Springer mentioned.

Garodnick noted the “City of Yes” citywide zoning amendments that Mayor Adams announced a sketch of earlier this year and the Department of City Planning, with other administration partners, is now working to flesh out before entering them into the city’s review process. Among other changes, they will seek to make it easier to build more housing units without seeking special permits.

Been, who was also once the city’s housing commissioner, turned her eye to the difficulty in approving large-scale neighborhood rezonings initiated by the city and said it is essential for city officials to pursue more of them. Been oversaw several such rezonings, all of which are controversial in New York City, under former Mayor Bill de Blasio to varying degrees of success. She pointed to the Furman Center’s 2021 report showing that 25% of multi-family homes constructed between 2010 and 2020 were in such rezoned areas, which only accounted for 3% of the city’s land.

“But neighborhood rezonings are increasingly difficult to get through,” she said, in reference to City Council buy-in. “They represent change and risk while processes like SEQRA privilege the status quo.”

She said the city needs to more closely tie the overall citywide goals of creating housing with those rezonings while also being more transparent and data-driven in how those rezonings are initiated. “We could be asking through a regular review of all of the community districts within the city, which ones are lagging behind in meeting the needs of a growing city,” she said. 

Elghanayan agreed with Been that the city needs to undertake neighborhood rezonings. “As-of-right [development] is clearly what every developer…wants to focus on. So to me, keeping that part of New York's land use process is essential,” he said, in reference to the much-maligned challenges with the discretionary approval system. “I think continuing to expand the…quantum of as-of-right sites through area-wide rezonings is the best way to ultimately build the most housing,” he said. 

He said that every local rezoning is like a “little mini political campaign,” which is easier for larger, well-resourced developers like his own firm than for smaller developers in the city, and “why the citywide rezonings are important.”

Elghanayan also added that one big fix to the system, from his perspective, would be shifting the city's elections to open primaries, which he believes would help local politics better reflect the will of the majority, who often support development projects. He referenced the scuttled Amazon 'HQ2' plan for Queens that his company was involved in as something that succumbed to opposition from local officials but was a job-creating project supporters by the majority of New Yorkers.

De la Uz, whose organization is involved with the Gowanus rezoning passed last year, said the city isn’t doing enough rezonings in high-opportunity neighborhoods, “which predominantly are wealthier and whiter.” And she pointed to a “mismatch” between community perceptions and neighborhood and citywide needs. It takes a lot of effort, she said, for “every-day residents in the neighborhood [to] understand, really, their responsibility, their community's responsibility and obligation to help make the city more equitable, more fair, more inclusive, more sustainable.” 

She later stressed the need for educating local residents, particularly community board members, about the technicalities of the land use process to ensure that their participation in it is more meaningful. 

“I think the biggest thing is really getting the information early on to Council members and to the community so people understand what is at stake, and for the Council member to be able to balance local need and citywide need,” said Chin, citing her own experience in overseeing rezonings in her Lower Manhattan district as a City Council member for 12 years.

Chin also said that City Council leadership has a responsibility to ensure that worthy projects are approved without giving undue power to the traditional practice of ‘member deference’ that allows local Council members to override projects. She repeatedly said it is essential for the Council Speaker and land use committee chair to be involved, to offer help to local members, including resources from the Council’s land use division.

Garodnick, a former City Council member himself, echoed Chin’s perspective. “I think it has to be a balance,” he said. “I think what happens too frequently, unfortunately, is that the local concerns predominate and the citywide concerns get lost in the mix.” 

He said the Council and its Speaker and the mayoral administration should all be able to clearly articulate citywide interests in advancing projects, whether they’re smaller rezonings like the Bruckner Boulevard rezoning in Throggs Neck in the Bronx or larger neighborhood ones like the rezoning of parts of Atlantic Avenue in Brooklyn or the rezonings around four planned Metro North stations in the East Bronx. 

CBC’s report recommends many potential changes to the land use process at both the state and city levels, and breaks them up into different categories based on how achievable they may be and on what timelines they could be tackled.

It urges the state to amend environmental review laws while setting clear and objective standards for local governments to contribute to housing production. It encourages the city to improve the process of advisory reviews of land use applications, streamline environmental reviews, assess applications based on how they align with larger citywide goals, and create an appeals process for applications rejected by the City Council or require a supermajority of Council members to reject any land use application. 

Visnauskas said there are a “myriad of solutions” that include, besides changes to process, other incentives to encourage production including tax incentives and authorization of accessory dwelling units, for instance. “There isn't really one solution to all these things. We really need five or six tools that communities across the state can be using to get at greater housing production,” she said. Some of those solutions were proposed by Governor Kathy Hochul this year and not passed by the Legislature, but Visnauskas said the governor will likely revisit them next year if she is elected to a full term in November. “I think that economic growth and housing and affordable housing are very core issues for the governor,” she said. 

“I think you'd expect to see housing as a big focus as we go into the governor’s State of the State [agenda in January] and at this moment, we're pretty optimistic and trying to be smart,” she added.

Been said there are key lessons the city can take from other jurisdictions, some of which CBC identified in its report. For instance, objective standards for rejecting a proposed project, allowing affordable housing on previously restricted land, exemptions from environmental reviews in certain cases or protection from legal challenges, and more. 

Garodnick said that along with rezonings and the citywide zoning text amendments, the Adams administration is pursuing other ideas including expanding the types of projects exempt from environmental reviews and streamlining the application process to make it easier for those without significant resources.

“We need to make this easier and more standardized. We want to urge applicants to pursue the simplest set of actions to facilitate their projects,” he said. He said the Department of City Planning is working to make it easier to receive public comment on projects and is working on accurately measuring the timeline of projects. He also floated the prospect of a mobile app “that would allow for the maximum automation” that could help potential land use applicants determine their environmental review requirements without relying on in-person help from DCP.

“The result we hope is that people do not default to ‘no’ and they do not come to that conclusion that this process is too hairy, complicated, long, volatile for them to want to pursue and instead enable for us to be able to move more projects consistent with the public policy through the system,” he said.

Chin disagreed with CBC’s recommendation of an appeals process for developers to potentially override Council decisions. “I think it is a City Council issue…The process should be within the Council,” she said, again stressing the importance of a Council culture of getting projects across the finish line to add needed growth. “The goal is really how you get to the approval process…and to make sure that the local Council member is being supported,” she said.

Watch the full Citizens Budget Commission event here:

How New York Can Improve Its Land Use Decision-Making Process from Citizens Budget Commission on Vimeo.

Kathy Hochul and Lee Zeldin

This is Part 2 of a two-part article on the issues dominating the 2022 general election for New York Governor between Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul and Republican U.S. Representative Lee Zeldin. Read Part 1 here.

As Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul and Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin face off in this year’s election for Governor of New York, several top issues have emerged based on what the candidates are focused on and polling shows matters most to New Yorkers.

Those issues include the economy and cost of living, crime and public safety, abortion rights, and gun control.

One or both of the two candidates have also shown at least some attention to education, climate, transit, and government reform and other democracy issues.

They have also been on the attack against each other, whether on the aforementioned issues or other political allegiances, including Hochul’s relationships with former Governor Andrew Cuomo and former Lieutenant Governor Brian Benjamin, both of whom resigned amid scandal, or Zeldin’s relationships with former President Donald Trump and others who attempted to stop the peaceful transfer of power based on the 2020 presidential election.

In part one of this two-part article, Gotham Gazette outlined in more detail the Hochul-Zeldin matchup and those key issues of the 2022 race for Governor of New York. Below, in part two, a closer look at the top issues of the race, where each candidate stands on them, and what polling shows New Yorkers think.

SCOTUS Rulings
In the aftermath of public uproar over the Supreme Court’s two recent decisions, protecting abortion rights and gun control appear to be key issues among voters, along with others like crime, the economy, and more.

In the span of a June week, the court overturned both Roe v. Wade – a 1973 ruling that created a federal right to abortion care across the country – and a century-old New York State law that required applicants for a concealed carry permit to provide “proper cause” distinguishable from the general public.

Hochul has opposed the rulings, and made policy and budget moves to counteract them, while Zeldin has supported both rulings and criticized some of Hochul’s response, especially around new gun laws.

But likely reacting to his unfavorable stances on both issues in a state like New York, Zeldin has also called both issues a distraction from what he says New Yorkers are more concerned about, predominantly crime and inflation. Zeldin’s reactions, including downplaying the idea of changing New York’s abortion laws that enshrined Roe protections as of 2019, indicate he hopes to avoid such issues in a state that hasn’t supported a GOP presidential nominee since 1984.

The Siena polling from early June and late July showed that New Yorkers widely oppose both of the rulings, with the majority of voters from every party, region, gender, and race saying both that they belive abortion should be always or mostly legal and that they are supportive of new laws that place limits on firearm use.

With job numbers improving and the price of gas and other goods and services prices down for the second month in a row, those issues seem to have become even more pressing as voters – particularly independents, who are essential to Zeldin’s chances for an upset – are worrying less about the economy, says Bruce Gyory. A political scientist, Democratic strategist, and senior advisor at Manatt, Phelps & Phillips, LLP, Gyory closely studies polling, voting trends, and the demographics of the electorate.

According to Gyory, all of the focus on possible economic recession and challenges with inflation have at least in part been overshadowed by abortion rights in the wake of the Supreme Court’s ruling.

“And now all of a sudden independent voters, who seemed to be driven by crime and inflation, seem to be quite worried about [reproductive] choice and the excesses of the ‘right to life’ movement,” Gyory told Gotham Gazette.

Recent Emerson College/PIX-11/The Hill polling showed New York independents identifying abortion access and gun control as the third (9.8%) and fourth (8.6%) most important issues to them when deciding who to vote for in the race, respectively, following only the economy (37.7%) and healthcare (19.3%).

Abortion Rights
New York State is a liberal bastion that has never elected an anti-abortion candidate since it became a critical talking point in the 1970s, and no Republican in it has won statewide in two decades.

When respondents in the SurveyUSA poll were asked to rank how important the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade will be in the fall election on a scale of 1 to 10 (where 10 means the single most important issue impacting their vote and 1 means not important to their vote at all), the average response among all voters was 7. Among Democrats it was 7.9, Republicans 5.6, and independents 6.9.

The most recent polling from Emerson College/PIX-11/The Hill found that 83% of New York voters think that abortion should be legal in the third trimester of pregnancy, in line with New York law that allows for such choice based on the health of the mother. 

If there is a risk to the mother’s life, 50% of voters in the poll said abortion should be allowed in the third trimester, including 46.4% of Republicans, 60% of independents, and 46.5% of Democrats.

Conversely, nearly 20% of voters – including 44.5% of Republicans, 11.2% of Democrats, and 14.7% of independents – think abortion should not be allowed in the third trimester.

According to the Siena poll conducted in late July, protecting abotion rights is widely popular across the state, with the majority of respondents saying that abortion should be always or mostly legal and that they oppose the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe. 

“Prior to the Supreme Court decision in Dobbs, New Yorkers said they wanted the Court to uphold Roe 60-24%. Today, 68% say they oppose the decision to overturn Roe, eliminating the constitutional right to abortion,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said in a press release announcing the late July survey results. “Although a small majority of Republicans support the Dobbs decision, it is opposed by 89% of Democrats, 60% of independents, and at least 62% of voters from every region, age group, gender, and race.

The survey found support for abortion being always or mostly legal to be even more robust in New York, with agreement from 88% of Democrats, 75% of independents, and 50% of Republicans, as well as at least two-thirds of voters from every region, age group, gender, race, and religion surveyed.

In the June Siena poll, by 63%-19% New York residents were also found to be in favor of enhanced legal protections for abortion, including a majority of voters from every region, gender, religion, and age group surveyed, as well as Democrats and independents. Among Republicans, 44-34% favored increased abortion protections.

Hochul
Hochul has long championed abortion and other reproductive rights, and taken several steps as governor to build on actions taken in New York when she was lieutenant governor, which included the 2019 Reproductive Health Act, which enshrined Roe protections into state law.

More recently, she allocated tens of millions of dollars in additional funding to abortion providers across the state and said New York welcomes those from elsewhere who need reproductive care here (though she opposed using state funds to help pay for transportation). And she has sought to expand abortion care via tele-health, pills, and other avenues.

She also advocated for the first passage of a state Equal Rights Amendment, which would add a right to abortion, among many other protections, into the State Constitution. That amendment will need to pass another legislative class and be approved by voters in order to become part of the state constitution as early as the end of 2023.

Zeldin
Anti-abortion throughout his political career, Zeldin was critical of New York’s Reproductive Health Act of 2019, floated the idea of appointing an anti-abortion health commissioner during this year’s primary, and expressed approval for the Supreme Court overturning Roe in a campaign statement. He supports enhancing adoption avaibility across the state and often stresses need for parental consent or informed consent when looking for abortion care.

“The reality is, we’re gonna have a balance of power in January. The State Assembly is going to be Democrat,” he said in May when pressed by reporters about how he would change the state’s abortion laws, referring to the potential for his holding office after winning this year’s election and the possibility of a Republican takeover of the State Senate, which is unlikely any time soon. “The Democratic control of the New York State Assembly is not going to be sending me a bill that is going to be rolling this stuff back,” he added of abortion protections, in an apparent effort to diffuse some of the potential unpopularity of his position on the issue.

When later asked how he might use the governor’s signifigant leverage over the state budget to influence issues like abortion, same-sex marriage, and more, Zeldin did not directly offer an answer. Meanwhile, he has pledged to change the state’s bail laws through the budget process.

Zeldin was among those who voted against New York’s Marriage Equality Act of 2011 when he was in the State Senate, but he recently voted in favor of marriage equality during a House vote in July of this year. 

Also in July, Zeldin voted against the Women’s Health Protection Act of 2022, which prohibits restrictions on abortion services, and the Ensuring Access to Abortion Act of 2022. He also voted against the Right to Contraception Act, which would federally protect access to birth control.

Abortion and gun restrictions are secondary to more important issues in the race like crime and the economy, Zeldin argues.

“No matter what distractions anyone throws up to try and take us off of that conversation that matters most to New Yorkers…I’m going to continue to talk about crime and public safety,” Zeldin told NY1. “I’m going to continue to talk about the economy and lost opportunities. I’m gonna continue to talk about what is never-ending scandal and dishonor coming out of the state capital.”

Gun Laws
New York voters widely say that they are supportive of measures that limit firearm ownership and use, such as new laws that require permits to obtain semi-automatic rifles and expand eligibility requirements to carry concealed weapons. 

The Siena survey conducted in late July found that more than three-quarters of voters, ​​including at least 65% of every demographic group, support the new gun laws, with approval for them strong among even conservatives and gun owners. 

The recent Emerson College/PIX-11/The Hill poll found that gun violence was top of mind for 9.3% of voters when deciding how to cast their vote in November, including among 12.7% of Democrats, 2.6% of Republicans, and 8.6% of independents. 

In the SurveyUSA poll, 9% of respondents said that “guns” were the most important issue to them in deciding how they would vote for Governor this fall, including 5% of Republicans, 11% of Democrats, and 12% of independents.

“You know, it's just hard that every day you see another shooting,” said Republican political consultant Tom Doherty, a partner at Mercury Public Affairs and former aide to Gov. George Pataki. “I think that people are just tired of guns being out there.”

In different ways, Hochul and Zeldin each believes that their gun-related stances will appeal to voters. Hochul is focused on local gun violence prevention measures and broader gun control policies, while offering funding and support for the police. Zeldin opposes most gun control policies but otherwise offers a tougher “law and order” stance wherein he pledges to jail more defendants pre-trial and reverse what he calls an anti-police culture in state government. Polling shows some support for both of their stances, but it is clear that New Yorkers are in support of fairly strict gun control measures championed by Hochul.

The Supreme Court’s June decision -- supported by Zeldin and opposed by Hochul -- to strike down the century-old New York-specific law requiring a special license to carry a concealed handgun was hugely unpopular across the state, according to the June Siena poll. By a 79%-15% margin, those surveyed in the poll said that they wanted the Court to uphold the New York law that placed special restrictions on concealed carry permits, including 72% of gun owners, 79% of Republicans, and 77% of independents. 

Hochul
Governor Hochul responded to the Supreme Court decision striking down New York’s concealed carry permitting process by working with the Legislature to pass a new law with several elements related to gun permits and carry restrictions. It sets up a new system of requirements for New Yorkers to obtain a concealed carry permit, including an in-person interview and exam, a review of social media accounts, and a minimum of 16 hours of training and two hours of firing range practice.

It also gives some discretion to local judges in the application process, prevents guns from being carried into many “sensitive areas” – such as subways, buses, parks, hospitals, stadiums, daycares, and Times Square – and expands body armor and safe storage laws. The full specifics of the sensitive areas will largely be left to localities. Meanwhile, the law also prohibits concealed carry in private businesses like restaurants unless the business explicitly posts a sign saying that concealed carry is welcome inside.

Debate has ensued about whether these laws will actually prevent more gun violence from occurring, as Hochul has guaranteed. Critics like Zeldin say that it is only infringing on the legal rights of law-abiding citizens under the Second Amendment. Hochul has referenced the possibility of public shoot-outs or other chaos that could occur with more people carrying guns amid perceived threats. She and other supporters of stricter gun laws have also noted that legal guns are often lost or stolen, and become illegal guns that are eventually used to commit gun violence.

The vast majority of New York voters approve of the law, according to the Siena poll taken in July. “Support for the new law expanding eligibility requirements to obtain a permit to carry a concealed weapon – background checks with character references and firearms safety training courses – is through the roof with all demographic groups. In fact, the ‘lowest’ support is with conservatives, who favor the new law 71-27%,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg.

 “There is also strong support for prohibiting concealed weapons in sensitive locations, 60-34%, and requiring private businesses to have a sign if they allow concealed weapons on their premises, 63-32%.”

The most recent polling from Emerson College/PIX-11/The Hill shows 38% of New York voters saying that that new gun law that adds eligibility requirements to concealed carry permit applications and restrict the carrying of concealed weapons in “sensitive locations” will have no impact on the amount of crime, compared to 32% who think the new law will increase crime, and 30% who think it will decrease crime.

Support is also high for gun restrictions included in a prior package of bills Hochul signed into law in June, which included setting a requirement to obtain a license that includes being at minimum 21 years old, passing a background check, and taking a safety course before purchasing a semi-automatic rifle, according to the June Siena poll. More than a third of voters and at least 65% of every demographic group approved of the law, including 67% of Republicans and 73% of gun owners, according to the poll.

By 58%-24% voters said that they also supported outlawing certain types of body armor for civilians, including three-quarters of Democrats, half of Republicans, and 54% of gun owners. 

“Four years ago, marking the fifth anniversary of New York’s Safe Act – at the time, one of the strictest gun control measures in the nation – voters supported the Safe Act by a wide 61-28% margin,” Greenberg said in June. “Now, support for needing both a permit for acquiring a semi-automatic weapon and a license for carrying a concealed weapon is even higher – across the ideological spectrum.”

Zeldin
Zeldin discussed the state's concealed carry permitting process in interviews after his primary win. “I believe that the Supreme Court made the correct decision,” he told NY1. “If a law-abiding citizen wants to safely and securely carry a firearm for their personal self-defense, we should not treat that the same way as the criminal who seeks to harm others.” 

Zeldin opposes gun-free zones and the NY SAFE Act, a 2013 gun regulation package that banned new sales of most assault weapons. He holds an ‘A’ rating from the NRA.

Despite backtracking somewhat, he has also been critical of red flag laws, which allow courts to restrict firearms access among people deemed a risk to themselves or others. And Zeldin has said that he is against raising the age necessary to buy firearms to 21, a requirement that Hochul has signed into law in New York.

Zeldin recently missed the House vote on the federal Bipartisan Safer Communities Act – an agreement between Democrats and Republicans that aims to make it harder for some potentially dangerous individuals to obtain firearms and allocates more federal funding for crisis intervention and mental health services. The bill was signed into law by President Joe Biden in late June, making it the first federal gun safety legislation passed in three decades. 

Zeldin recently voted against the Active Shooter Alert bill, which proposes setting up a system to alert people in case of a nearby active shooter, and an Assault Weapons Ban, which makes it a crime to knowingly import, sell, manufacture, transfer, or possess a semiautomatic assault weapon or large capacity ammunition feeding device. Both bills passed the House but have not yet been brought up for a vote in the Senate.

Along with many other Republican politicians across the country, Zeldin has said that the root of endemic gun violence is violent criminals who need to be locked up and those suffering from mental health issues. He has pledged to make investments in prisons to bolster support for mental health patients and those suffering from addiction.

“Going after crimes committed with illegal firearms is very different than going after law-abiding citizens and denying them the right to be able to safely and securely carry their personal self-defense,” he said in a June 28 interview on 1010 WINS. “That is a right that I agree with, I support, I defend.”

Crime and Public Safety 
Voters across every party, region, gender, and race are all deeply concerned about crime and public safety in New York, according to the June Siena poll. Those concerns were higher across the board in the June survey over a previous poll conducted in February, with fears highest among New York Metropolitan Area and Black voters. (The Siena poll conducted in late July did not ask respondents about crime.)

The recent Emerson College/PIX-11/The Hill poll found that crime may have become somewhat less top-of-mind for voters, with 12.4% of Republicans, 5.6% of Democrats, and 5.7% of independents saying it was the most important issue to them when deciding who to vote for in November. 

The SurveyUSA poll did not ask explicitly about public safety, though it did find that 12% of all respondents identified criminal justice reform as the top issue for them in the November election, with 16% of Republicans, 8% of Democrats, and 14% of independents.

To combat rising crime rates of the last two-plus years, Hochul has worked to increase funding for law enforcement and community groups, enhance the social safety net, toughen the bail law, and take other steps.

Zeldin proposes repealing bail reforms altogether and giving judges more discretion to jail defendants pre-trial, hiring more police officers, attempting to oust prosecutors he claims fail to adequately pursue criminal cases, and more.

From every party, region, gender, and race surveyed by Siena in June, at least 90% of voters said that crime is a serious problem in the state, with at least 57% saying it’s a very serious problem. Those numbers drop some when respondents were asked about their own communities, with 65% saying that crime in their community is a serious problem and 27% saying it is very serious; 60% said that they are concerned they could be a victim of crime, with 26% very concerned – up from 57% and 22% in February.

“New Yorkers said crime was a problem in February and they continue to see it a major problem in June,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said in June. “A majority of voters of every region, party, race, and gender say they are concerned they could be victims of crime.” 

Hochul
Hochul pushed legislators to tighten bail laws through her first and only state budget but has argued against going to much broader discretion for judges, despite calls from Democratic New York City Mayor Eric Adams, Zeldin, and others to do that. She has instead said touted the targeted changes to the law, which do include several aspects related to a defendant’s past record and perceived dangerousness to society. Hochul says that if implemented well, the changes will work to reduce crime and recidivism.

As governor Hochul has also focused on several other efforts to prevent gun violence. 

In the wake of a racist mass shooting in Buffalo in May, she worked with the Legislature to pass a package of ten laws that expanded the state’s red flag law, raised the minimum age to purchase a semi-automatic weapon from 18 to 21, will eventually help police forensically trace bullets, and more.

In response to the Supreme Court ruling, the governor and legislators then passed laws to address gun licenses, concealed carry permits, and the aforementioned “sensitive locations.” Hochul also directed police to increase their visibility in schools after the Uvalde school massacre. 

And she took the steps she says will improve the state’s bail law and public safety, an apparent attempt to undercut perhaps the chief criticism being leveled by Republicans against her and other Democrats in this year’s elections. The updates to the law allow in many more cases for the arrest and pre-trial detention of alleged repeat offenders, including on violations that are on their own typically not bail eligible under the law.

“You’ll never hear this from my opponent, but the fact is, we did toughen the bail laws,” Hochul said in an interview with 1010 Wins radio. “The fact is the bail laws were changed, they were strengthened, and now we’re starting to see the effect that people now know that the police, the district attorneys, and the judges have what they need to do their jobs.”

The governor prefaced her comment by saying that “there’s a larger picture than bail reform” and that she is more focused on addressing gun violence and amending the state’s concealed carry permitting process. She has also increased state funding for local law enforcement and for community nonprofit groups that do outreach work to prevent gun violence and other crime.

According to the Emerson College/PiX-11/The Hill poll, New York voters think the current bail reform policy has increased crime rather than decreased crime (61%-11%), while 28% think it has had no impact on crime in New York. Available criminal justice system data has shown a limited impact, with very similar percentages of defendants rearrested pre-trial before and after the reforms.

“Republican and independent voters think the current bail reform policy and new gun laws regarding eligibility requirements have increased and will increase crime, whereas the plurality of Democratic voters think the measures had no impact and will have no impact on crime” said Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling.

If elected to a full term, Hochul has indicated her focus will be implementation of what she has passed, including stronger enforcement of the red flag law, and additional funding for community interventions like violence interrupters. She has also pledged greater cooperation with various partners, including New York City Mayor Eric Adams, on several fronts, such as the interstate gun trafficking task force, which she has touted in recent months for helping to remove thousands of illegal guns from society.

Zeldin
Zeldin frequently emphasizes that he hopes to repeal “cashless bail,” meaning the 2019 bail reform package that eliminated cash bail for most cases involving alleged nonviolent felonies and misdemeanors. He claims that the law has driven up crime rates, despite a lack of definitive evidence. 

Among other evaluations and reporting, The Brennan Center for Justice published a report in March in which its authors found that “there is no clear connection between recent crime increases and the bail reform law enacted in 2019, and the data does not currently support further revisions to the legislation.”

“The data is stories,” Zeldin said as he announced his “Secure Our Streets” crime plan in February, referencing anecdotes.

Zeldin says he would give judges more autonomy when setting bail. He proposes entirely repealing the bail changes as well as the Less is More Act – which ended the practice of automatically sending parolees back to jail for some minor violations, like breaking a curfew or missing an appointment with a parole officer – and the HALT Solitary Confinement Act, which prohibits certain types and lengths of isolation and solitary confinement in state prison and jails across the state. 

He also promises if elected Governor to hire more police officers and increase police funding, in addition to increasing penalties on looting, toughening the parole process, and upholding qualified immunity (which protects police officers from civil liability).

Zeldin has made his plan to immediately seek to remove Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg from office a key campaign pillar, though there is also no definitive evidence that Bragg’s policies have had any impact on crime rates. “He’s refusing to enforce the law across the board,” Zeldin said of Bragg in an interview with NY1. “If you believe that DA stands for Defense Attorney instead of District Attorney, then go be a defense attorney.”

Climate 
Gyory said that climate change and efforts to combat it, including a green energy transition, could still become a key issue in the race, especially as hurricane season continues amid the campaign. If severe weather ends up putting New Yorkers at risk, foreshadowing what may happen if more action is not taken to protect the climate, they may vote on the issue, he said.

About 6% of all respondents in the SurveyUSA poll said that climate change was the most important issue to them in deciding who to vote for in the November election, including 4% of Republicans, 8% of Democrats, and 5% of independents.

Here again, the two candidates take very different approaches.

Hochul is already running on her efforts around climate and the environment, having promised to achieve the goals of the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act of 2019, which sets the state toward net-zero emissions by 2050. The state budget included $500 million for offshore wind energy infrastructure and $400 million in the Environmental Protection Fund, among other investments.

Hochul and the Legislature have also advanced $1.3 billion to increase the Clean Water, Clean Air, and the $4.2 billion Green Jobs Environmental Bond Act, which will go before voters on the general election ballot this fall for approval or disapproval. Hochul will likely focus her run in part on the push to have voters approve the bond act, which has earned her some support from environmental and climate activists. And the governor touts having signed recent bills to reduce greenhouse emissions by enacting new energy codes and implementing regulations affecting utilities and heating and cooling.

To lower energy costs and bolster the state economy, Zeldin proposes repealing the state ban on fracking for natural gas, approving new gas pipelines, and suspending energy taxes. When asked by Gotham Gazette to comment on the environmental impact of those initiatives and whether he had a plan to combat climate change or advance the state’s renewable energy mandates, his campaign did not provide a response.

Cost of Living and Affordable Housing
Polling conducted by the Regional Plan Association (RPA) and Global Strategy Group (GSG) of 800 residents in the New York Metro area in April showed the high cost of living – 46% – and the ability to find affordable housing – 28% – were top issues of concern for residents, trumped only by crime at 48%. It also found that a third of residents feared eviction – up to 42% among those that were Black and Latino – and that 67% supported policies like approving accessory dwelling units to address the area's dearth of housing.

To address inequality, the April RPA and GSG survey also found that residents prioritized addressing affordable housing (42%) and racial discrimination (24%), and increasing wages (33%). A majority of residents – 56% – also said they were worried about their financial situations, up from 47% in October, while 87% said that inflation has had some impact on their spending habits. 

A survey conducted by NYC Speaks in April– which was the largest known survey of New York City residents, with 62,000 respondents – found that city residents see affordable housing as the top public safety issue. When asked to pick three public safety priorities, the survey's respondents most often selected affordable housing and reducing homelessness. 

The recent Emerson College/PIX-11/The Hill poll found that housing affordability was somewhat less of a priority than other issues for voters when deciding how to cast their ballots, with only 3% of respondents saying it was their top issue, including 5% of Democrats and 1.6% of independents. No Republicans said that housing affordability was a priority.

Meanwhile, the poll found that inflation was the biggest consideration for voters across the board, with 38.4% of voters saying it was their biggest consideration when deciding how to vote, including 37.7% of independents, 54.1% of Republicans, and 31.7% of Democrats.

The SurveyUSA poll did not ask about cost of living and affordable housing, but did find that 33% of respondents said that inflation was the most important issue when deciding who to vote for in November, while 10% said that jobs were top of mind.

On the campaign trail, Hochul has touted her $25 billion, five-year affordable housing plan, building off Cuomo’s plans and passed in the April state budget, that she says will fund the creation or preservation of 100,000 units, including 10,000 supportive housing. 

Zeldin’s campaign did not respond to multiple requests to provide his assessment of New York’s affordable housing crisis and what he proposes to do about it if elected Governor. To lower the high cost of living in the state, he has instead focused on making what he calls an “across-the-board” tax cut, though he has not provided a plan outlining more specific details yet.

Political Reform
A March survey of 1,000 New Yorkers from John Zogby strategies suggests that voters are interested in seeing a pathway to structural change in Albany. The survey found that majorities support term limits for elected officials and a chance for third parties to nominate candidates in the general election, among other reforms, and that pluralities support allowing ballot referendums, open primaries, and more.

Of the respondents in the survey, 60% said that they are more likely to support a candidate who advocates term limits and that they wanted it to be easier for third parties to get on the ballot (those rules were significantly tightened in recent years under Cuomo, leading to several political parties losing their automatic ballot lines); 49% said they were more likely to support candidates seeking ballot referendums, while 43% said they were more likely to support candidates calling for open primaries. 

Some two-thirds of respondents said they wanted to see voters “more empowered than party leaders,” while 59% said they wanted to “abolish dark money in politics” – referring to political spendings from undisclosed sources, like nonprofits and shell companies. 51% of respondents said they supported ranked-choice voting, 54% (including 37% of Republicans) that they support no-excuse absentee voting, among support for other changes.

To end what he calls a "toxic culture" in state government, Zeldin offers a 10-point “Reform Albany" plan, which proposes enacting term limits for statewide officials, appointing a special prosecutor to investigate the Cuomo administration’s skewed reporting of nursing home deaths during the covid pandemic, and more.

Zeldin’s focus on government ethics and criticism of Hochul have been mocked by some as hypocritical given his allegiance to Trump, who has repeatedly undermined the country’s democracy, including with Zeldin’s help.

Hochul came into office promising to improve transparency and ethics, and she proposed instituting term limits for statewide officials but the measure did not make it into the adopted budget. While Hochul has almost universally been praised for ushering in a more collegial environment in state government than under Cuomo, she has also faced a number of questions about ethics and transparency.

Those have included the scandal around her initial Lieutenant Governor, Brian Benjamin, who resigned over federal corruption charges from his time as a state senator and Hochul did not properly vet before selecting. She also presided over a typically secretive state budget negotiation and secretly agreed to a major state incentive package for a new Buffalo Bills stadium.

Mayor Adams rides the subway (photo: Mayor's Office)

When Mayor Eric Adams was on the campaign trail last year, he repeatedly called for city and state officials to step up the use of Kendra's Law – a state law that allows court-ordered outpatient mental health treatment for people deemed dangerous to themselves or others.

"We must strengthen Kendra’s Law,” Adams told the press outside a subway station in May 2021.

“Judges, do your job. It’s time to use Kendra’s Law to deal with the mental health crisis that we’re seeing,” he said.

Adams came into office in January and, with Governor Kathy Hochul, trained his sights on "subway safety," homelessness, and untreated mental illness. With the presence of people with serious mental illness more visible on the subways and streets of some parts of the city, the crisis was further elevated by high-profile incidents, particularly the January killing of Michelle Go, who was pushed in front of a train by a man with schizophrenia. Earlier this year, Hochul, with Adams' support, strengthened Kendra's Law in the state budget and both made it a focus of public pronouncements. 

That messaging appears to have reached the city's pool of law enforcement and social service agencies.

The number of Kendra's Law orders statewide increased modestly in August, from roughly 3,400 to 3,500, and has remained elevated through much of September. While the increase statewide is slight, it is driven almost entirely by New York City, which has seen a significant jump in treatment orders across the five boroughs whereas there have been declines in most of the rest of the state.

The Adams administration and the city’s Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (DOHMH), which administers the orders, has pointed to few official directives related to the use of AOT petitions or to Kendra's Law at all.

Asked to respond to the figures, the Adams administration did not point to specific efforts to increase the use of Kendra's Law and AOT.

"The Adams administration is laser focused on keeping New Yorkers safe and caring for the most vulnerable among us. We will continue to make sure people get the help they need, including AOT when appropriate," wrote a City Hall spokesperson in an email.

To be placed under what's known as "assisted outpatient treatment" (AOT), a person must be demonstrating violent behavior or have been hospitalized repeatedly for not complying with a treatment regimen in the past. AOT often entails taking psychotropic drugs and various forms of therapy. If a person doesn't comply they can be involuntarily held for evaluation and ultimately committed to a psychiatric hospital.

Typically, a county health department -- in this case the NYC DOHMH -- petitions the court after receiving a referral, often from an outreach worker, outpatient provider, or family member, or from other city agencies like the Department of Social Services. Over the last 12 months (since September 2021), judges in New York City have granted 90% of AOT petitions (down slightly from 96% of petitions granted since 1999).

Proponents, like Adams' senior advisor for serious mental illness, Brian Stettin, a lawyer who helped write Kendra's Law in 1999 as a assistant attorney general, say the law helps a subset of people with mental illness receive expedited care and avoid unnecessary hospitalization and criminal-legal involvement. Some civil rights advocates and advocates for those with serious mental illness call the system coercive, with language that is overly broad and often used to violate constitutional rights.

In New York City, 44% of current AOT recipients are Black and 32% are Latino, according to state data. About a quarter have experienced homelessness, incarceration, or both. More than half have alcohol or substance use issues. Current rates suggest a quarter of AOT orders will result in hospitalization.

As of September 22, the number of individuals under AOT in New York City had risen to 1,655, close to half of the state total, and a remarkable 19% increase over the same day last year. Long Island was the only other region in the state to see an increase, dwarfed by both the pace and volume in the city. Every region north of the Bronx saw declines in AOTs year-over-year.

The uptick came on the heels of a surge in new AOTs in New York City from April through July, despite falling rates elsewhere in the state. That has raised questions about what emphasis the Adams administration is placing on using Kendra's Law outside his bully pulpit.

In February, a few weeks after Go was fatally pushed in front of a moving train, Adams unveiled his Subway Safety Plan. The centerpiece of the campaign included flooding the subways with outreach workers and police officers, and pushing state legislators to change Kendra's Law.

“It is cruel and inhumane to allow unhoused people to live on the subway, and unfair to paying passengers and transit workers who deserve a clean, orderly, and safe environment,” Adams said in a statement at the time.

“The days of turning a blind eye to this growing problem are over, and I look forward to collaborating with the state, the federal government, TWU, advocates, and law enforcement to solve this challenge,” the new Democratic mayor said.

Adams’ plan called for an inter-agency review of the entire AOT system, to "identify efficiencies and ensure clients are placed in the best-care pathway for their needs."

A City Hall spokesperson said that review is ongoing but declined to provide any details about its status or findings so far.

In April, after a push from Hochul echoing calls from Adams to expand Kendra's Law, state lawmakers broadened the statute to make it easier to renew orders after they've expired. The amendment made it possible for local health departments to extend mandated treatment within six months of expiration without meeting previous criteria (i.e. evidence of violent behavior or hospitalization) within the statutory window, as long as an individual is unable to carry out "one or more major life activities" due to mental illness.

“Governor Hochul's top priority is protecting New Yorkers, and she has made the development of a comprehensive behavioral health crisis system in New York State a key initiative in her administration," said Justin Mason, an Executive Chamber spokesperson, in response to the latest increase in AOT.

"Governor Hochul worked with the Legislature to implement the most substantial amendments to Kendra’s Law in two decades in order to strengthen the use of the law and outcomes," Mason continued. "By investing millions of dollars in mental health services and working closely with providers, local government, and law enforcement to help vulnerable individuals get the care they need, Governor Hochul is taking meaningful action to protect the health and safety of New Yorkers in need.”

The state's Office of Mental Health (OMH), has met with county health departments, the state courts and state-appointed legal counsel around the state to educate them on changes to the law, Mason said. OMH has also updated the guidance documents available on its website.

According to the mayor's office, the city has trained officials at DOHMH, New York City Health + Hospitals, and the Department of Social Services in the changes to the law.

The administration also sent city agencies a February guidance letter from OMH Commissioner Anne Marie Sullivan, an appointee of former Governor Andrew Cuomo, that said police and front-line crisis responders may remove a person to a hospital under a danger standard that included self-neglect, similar to the change codified in the expanded Kendra's Law this spring.

But according to OMH, the more expansive language hasn't been the basis of any new orders.

From April to July, while the number of new orders jumped, the overall number of people under AOT remained steady around 3,400, indicating people were coming off AOT as quickly as they were going on.

The reason, according to a spokesperson for the city's Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, which handles almost all AOT petitions in the five boroughs, "is that during the latter part of the pandemic, some AOT orders lapsed without renewal due to pandemic related issues with the court system," causing a reduction in the AOT census.

"Many of these lapsed cases were reopened as investigations and, as the courts began functioning better, were placed back on AOT," the city health department spokesperson told Gotham Gazette. "These, in addition to the usual new referrals each month, allowed the AOT census to recover."

Asked why the courts were able to process new orders so quickly but couldn't keep up with lapsing orders, another DOHMH spokesperson explained that the courts could not review expiring orders "when their operation reduced during the pandemic," leaving it to DOHMH to resubmit AOT petitions after the fact.

Lucian Chalfen, a spokesperson for the state court system, appeared to deny the claim that court functions had halted. "We continued to do hearings throughout the pandemic as we had been set up for virtual appearances previous to March 2020," he wrote to Gotham Gazette in an email response to the DOHMH statement.

Amid the current spike in AOTs, the biggest jump has been in Manhattan, which saw a 25% year-over-year increase, followed by Queens, Brooklyn, the Bronx, and, modestly, Staten Island. The particular uptick in Manhattan appears to align with Adams' and Hochul's focus on targeting police and outreach services to the epicenter of public transit hubs. The NYPD recently reported interacting with more than 40,000 people experiencing homelessness in the transit system this year, of whom 7,700 accepted services.

In mid-September, representatives from OCA and Mental Hygiene Legal Services, a branch of the court system, DOHMH's legal division, and over a dozen other stakeholders, including AOT providers, met to discuss ways to expedite mental health cases. It was "a regular meeting," according to Chalfen. The second item on the agenda was "Treatment Orders," he said. 

Neither Chalfen, DOHMH, nor City Hall will comment on what was discussed or who was present. A City Hall spokesperson confirmed the meeting took place, focused on court calendaring. The spokesperson said it was not specific to AOT orders but did not deny the orders were discussed.

This article has been updated in a few locations for clarity.

Kathy Hochul and Lee Zeldin

This is Part 1 of a two-part article on the issues dominating the 2022 race for New York Governor.

After winning their respective primaries, Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul and Republican Congressional Representative Lee Zeldin are now competing in the general election to become New York Governor from 2023 through 2026.

The favorites from the start, Hochul and Zeldin both won by comfortable margins in the June primaries. Hochul, a moderate from the Buffalo area and the state’s first female governor, is seeking to win election to the role after having succeeded disgraced former Governor Andrew Cuomo upon his August 2021 resignation. Zeldin, a conservative from Long Island who gave up his congressional seat to seek the governor’s office, is hoping to become the first Republican to win statewide in New York since Governor George Pataki won a third term 20 years ago, in 2002.

As the June primaries concluded, the issues that appear set to dominate the general election for Governor of New York and many other offices on the ballot this year took shape, whether from what the winning candidates’ focused their campaigns on or from forces outside their control. Though there have been some shifts in emphasis since, those issues remain the focus as the race enters its final six weeks.

The New York political conversation is being dominated in part by reactions to major U.S. Supreme Court decisions issued in June, as well as other national trends and their local impacts, and how New York policy-makers are responding on issues including abortion rights and gun control, crime and public safety, inflation and the economy.

There are also other long-standing issues that Hochul, Zeldin, or both appear set to campaign on, from schools to how the state is attempting to mitigate the impacts of climate change to how it has handled the COVID-19 pandemic to population declines in parts of New York.

The sitting governor, Hochul has been championing her achievements over the past year, including in response to the Supreme Court rulings overturning Roe v. Wade abortion rights and a New York-specific concealed carry gun law. Zeldin has largely been criticizing Hochul, blaming her for not doing enough about increased crime and cost of living, tying her to Cuomo, with whom she served as Lieutenant Governor from 2015 to 2021, and more.

The General Election Matchup
Only two names will appear on the gubernatorial ballot this year after the Board of Elections rejected petitions from the Green and Libertarian Parties, which both lost automatic ballot status in 2020 and subsequently fought unsuccessful legal battles to enter the general election.

Hochul mostly coasted through the Democratic primary, spending a massive $26 million in fending off challenges from New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams and Congressional Representative Tom Suozzi.

Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado will join her ticket in the general election after overcoming progressive activist Ana Maria Archila and moderate former New York City Council Member Diana Reyna by a sizable margin in his primary. Delgado left Congress to accept the position as Hochul’s lieutenant governor, her second such appointment in a short time after Brian Benjamin took the post and subsequently resigned after being arrested on public corruption charges from his tenure as a state senator — a scandal that Zeldin is using against Hochul in questioning her judgment and readiness for the job.

The Democratic nominees will also appear on the Working Families Party ballot line in the general election after the WFP-endorsed Williams and Archila were defeated and moved to vacate that nomination so as to not play a ‘spoiler’ role in the fall election.

Hochul’s campaign platform has largely centered around touting what she’s done in just over a year as governor. She is also offering a few agenda items that she backed but did not get accomplished in her lone state budget and legislative session as governor thus far. Hochul has not laid out an agenda for a full term as governor or even for next year.

But Hochul has thus far run on what she has passed and is implementing on healthcare, infrastructure and economic development, gun violence prevention, education, childcare, renewable energy, and more. She made the bulk of her achievements during the April state budget, as well as the rest of the legislative session that ended in June and a brief special session that followed, when the state passed enhanced gun laws and abortion protections in the wake of the Supreme Court rulings.

Both candidates are on the attack. Hochul and her fellow Democrats paint Zeldin as a “far-right extremist,” drawing upon his anti-abortion and pro-gun stances and ties to former President Donald Trump that include his vote against certifying the 2020 presidential elections on the night of January 6, 2021, just hours after the pro-Trump mob ransacked the Capitol.

Zeldin said during this year’s primary that he would accept an endorsement from Trump and that he would support him if he became the Republican nominee in the 2024 presidential election. He almost entirely aligned himself with Trump when he was president, voting with his agenda 88.8% of the time, according to a FiveThirtyEight analysis. Trump recently helped Zeldin raise money for the gubernatorial contest.

“Everybody knows that we cannot have Lee Zeldin as our governor,” Hochul said in an interview with NY1 on June 29, the morning after winning the primary. “This is not an ordinary Republican – this is a Trump extremist.”

“Zeldin backs the Big Lie, voted to overturn the 2020 election, repeatedly supported abortion bans, and would make our state less safe by rolling back common-sense gun safety laws,” said Hochul Campaign Communications Director Jerrel Harvey in a statement after Zeldin secured the GOP nomination. “He is so far out of the mainstream it’s hard to believe that he’s even a New Yorker — much less one that wants to represent all of us as governor.”

While Hochul emphasizes Zeldin’s stances on guns and abortion that are significantly out of step with what public opinion polling shows of New Yorkers’ sentiments, the Republican nominee plans to make his case largely by trying to focus voters on two issues.

“No matter how hard Kathy Hochul tries changing the subject, the top 2 issues of this campaign for Governor are Crime & the Economy,” Zeldin tweeted on July 2.

Zeldin, who represents New York’s 1st Congressional District on Long Island, prevailed in a competitive four-way gubernatorial primary with solid fundraising, an aggressive campaign schedule, and a wide range of endorsements from Republican leaders. He defeated Andrew Giuliani, son of former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, businessman Harry Wilson, and former Westchester Executive Rob Astorino.

That the Republican candidates had a primary this year was unusual – the party generally unites around a single candidate – and may have pushed Zeldin to articulate conservative stances that could hurt him in the general election as he had to appeal to a deeply conservative and largely upstate voter base. He will appear on both the Conservative and Republican Party ballot lines in the general alongside Alison Esposito, a former NYPD Deputy Inspector who ran unopposed in the primary for Lieutenant Governor.

The pair were denied an additional spot on the ballot via the Independence Party after submitting apparently fraudulent photocopied petition signatures that are the subject of ongoing investigations and Zeldin has tried to distance himself from. 

“New Yorkers in every corner of our state are hitting their breaking points," Zeldin said in a June statement. "They're tired of the attacks on their wallets, safety, freedom, and kids' education. The reality is Kathy Hochul doesn't want to talk about these issues that matter most to New Yorkers. Instead, she's busy pandering to the far left and she's going to pay a price for that at the ballot box in November."

“More than any other state right now we’re seeing this population loss,” Zeldin added in his primary night victory speech. “Our campaign is a campaign to try to convince you to stay, to make sure that your family who has left will want to come back.”

The four-term congressman champions a tough-on-crime agenda and promises to boost the state economy through initiatives like fracking, tax cuts, and business deregulation. He has released somewhat detailed policy plans relating to crime, political reform, education, energy, and helping military veterans. But he has not provided much about how he plans to address the state’s economy beyond cutting taxes and regulations, and has no clear plans for the state’s affordable housing crisis, health care system, public transit, public university systems, or climate issues. Notwithstanding multiple requests from Gotham Gazette asking the campaign to clarify his stances on these issues, Zeldin’s campaign did not respond.

Based on Cuomo’s many scandals, Zeldin frequently criticizes Hochul for her time as Lieutenant Governor. He also regularly points to Hochul’s selection of Brian Benjamin as her first Lieutenant Governor and his subsequent resignation over federal public corruption charges from his time as a state senator.

“Kathy Hochul is in over her head. She’s a walking identity crisis, to be honest,” Zeldin said in his victory speech on the night of June 28 – language he has used repeatedly and some have called misogynistic.

In his own interview on NY1 after winning the GOP primary, Zeldin pushed back against Hochul’s depiction of him as a “far-right extremist," and reaffirming his commitments to repealing sweeping bail reforms passed by Democrats in 2019 and since toughened twice (including this year upon Hochul’s urging) and to “firing” Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, whom Republicans have made a boogeyman based on his reform policies.

“Well, if it’s extremist to want our streets to be safe by repealing cashless bail and holding rogue DAs accountable for their refusal to enforce the law, well, so be it,” he said.

Focus Issues - What the Polling Says
The key issues in the gubernatorial race have taken shape, with public opinion surveys showing that the economy, crime, and the Supreme Court’s two recent decisions are top of mind for many New Yorkers. On the ‘horse-race’ of the election, in most cases polls show Hochul with a commanding double-digit lead over Zeldin.

Polling from Emerson College/PIX-11/The Hill conducted in early September found the economy to be the most important issue to 38% of 1,000 ‘somewhat likely’ and ‘very likely’ New York voters who were polled, followed by abortion access (14%), healthcare (10%), gun violence (9%), crime (7%), and immigration (5%). Among voters under 35, the survey found that healthcare was the most important issue (with 21.8%), whereas 54.6% of voters over 35 said the economy.

An online poll conducted by SurveyUSA in August identified inflation as the most pressing issue among of 1,200 New Yorkers (among whom 715 were determined to be ‘likely voters’ in November) when deciding how to cast their ballot in November, with 33% of respondents saying it was the most important issue in the race, including 47% of Republicans, 29% of Democrats, and 26% of independents. Healthcare (12%), criminal justice reform (12%), jobs (10%), and abortion access (10%) were also found to be priorities for likely voters in the survey.

Siena Research Institute polling in early June and late July gleaned that voters widely oppose the Court’s rulings overturning New York’s century-old concealed carry requirement and the federal right to an abortion, and they are widely supportive of protecting abortion rights and enacting laws that place significant safeguards on firearm ownership and carry.

Earlier polling in April and March suggested that voters are also worried about affordable housing and the state's high cost of living, and that they are supportive of reforming Albany’s political structure to increase government ethics and transparency as the capital reels from the scandal and corruption of the Cuomo years.

A John Zogby Strategies poll released in March suggests that some voters are considering leaving the state in search of better economic opportunities, while a Regional Plan Association/Global Strategy Group poll released in March and NYC Speaks poll released in April both show that, among New York Metropolitan Area voters, the state’s high cost of living and finding affordable housing are key concerns.

Climate, education, and covid policies are all also likely to be top issues of the general election, which will conclude on Election Day, November 8. Early voting will be October 29 through November 6, with absentee balloting throughout.

As of September 26, Hochul and Zeldin are still debating if and when they will actually meet for one or more general election debate(s).

Read Part 2 of this article, with a closer look at these issues dominating the race for New York Governor and where Hochul and Zeldin stand on them.

A look at the voting ahead (photo: Michael Appleton/Mayoral Photography Office)

Election Day 2022 is less than two months away and there’s much at stake in New York, both at the state and national levels. After a messy redistricting process led to a bifurcated primary, the general election is well underway for statewide, state legislative, and congressional seats.

At the top of the ballot are the races for Governor and Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, and Comptroller, as well as one U.S. Senate seat (currently held by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who is seeking reelection). Democrats are running to hold all five positions, while the party is seeking to hold its super-majorities in both houses of the State Legislature and the vast majority of the state’s seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Election Day is Tuesday, November 8, 2022. Absentee voting by mail is set to begin in late September and early voting will be available from October 29 through November 6.

While Democrats dominate in New York, the party continues to face the possibility of a backlash to rising inflation and crime, while the potential for a Republican wave also threatens the Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate. New York will be among the states with the most House races in play to influence which party holds the chamber come January.

Around 10 to 12 of New York’s 26 House districts appear competitive for the general election. Democrats’ narrow U.S. House and Senate majorities are both vulnerable in these midterm elections, where the president’s party almost always loses quite a few congressional seats.

But Democrats in New York and beyond feel some wind at their backs politically after the U.S. Supreme Court’s unpopular decision to overturn Roe v. Wade abortion protections and amid ongoing Republican efforts to undermine American democracy, which are being led by former President Donald Trump, who remains deeply unliked in the state where he made his name. While forecasters continue to predict a Republican takeover of the House majority, recent polling has shown movement toward Democrats and a path to the party keeping its narrow majorities in both houses of Congress.

Though Democratic majorities in the New York State Senate and Assembly are secure, Republicans are hoping to win back several seats in the Senate especially. The top of the ticket, where Governor Kathy Hochul looks to win her first election to the position, could be vulnerable given some national and local trends, but polling, fundraising, and voter registration numbers all tilt heavily in her favor.

Democrats enjoy a heavy voter enrollment advantage across many parts of the state and in sum, making Democratic nominees favored in statewide and many legislative races. But, several general election contests will be competitive, hard-fought, and worth watching, and anything can happen in politics.

Along with elections for many seats in government, voters across the state will be able to vote for or against a ballot proposal for the $4.2 billion Environmental Bond Act advanced by Governor Hochul and the State Legislature; and voters in New York City will weigh three additional ballot questions related to potential additions to the City Charter put forward by a Racial Justice Commission assembled by former Mayor Bill de Blasio.

Along with statewide races, all 26 House seats from New York, all 150 State Assembly, and all 63 State Senate seats are up for election this year, and will be on the fall ballot but for where one candidate is uncontested in the general election.

Here is a rundown of races to watch state-wide and for House and state legislative seats:

Statewide Races
Governor Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, is running for her first full-term with Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado as her running-mate. They form a ticket against Republican gubernatorial nominee U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin of Long Island and his running-mate, Alison Esposito, a former NYPD deputy inspector. Most polling has shown Hochul with double-digit leads, and no Republican has won any statewide office since Governor George Pataki won a third term in 2002.

Zeldin is hoping to break that two-decade streak by barnstorming the state, regularly attacking Hochul on a variety of issues, including her connection to disgraced former Governor Andrew Cuomo, and offering a vision for a tougher “law and order” approach, lower taxes, and fewer business and environmental regulations.

Hochul’s pitch for reelection centers on her accomplishments in just over one year as governor and positioning herself and the state as bulwarks against an extreme Republican Party agenda that threatens abortion rights, voting rights, and the broader democratic process.

She has moved quickly to tighten gun restrictions and expand abortion access in the wake of two recent Supreme Court rulings. And she has repeatedly hammered Zeldin for embracing Trump and voting against the certification of the 2020 presidential election.

Zeldin has been extremely critical of criminal justice reforms passed in recent years by Democrats in Albany, particularly the elimination of cash bail in many cases. And he has sought to paint Hochul as a continuation of her predecessor who is not up to the task of leading the state. But his campaign appears to be eschewing a broader effort to reach the large number of independents, moderates, and disaffected Democrats he will need to win.

Emblematic of most polling in the race, a Siena College survey released in early August showed Hochul leading Zeldin 53% to 39%. An Emerson College/PIX11/The Hill poll released September 9 showed Hochul leading 50%-35% and a Data For Progress poll released September 15 showed her leading 52%-39%.

In other statewide races, Democrats face nominal opposition and have commanding leads over Republicans with little name recognition among voters.

U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer, the Democratic Senate majority leader, is running for reelection for a fifth six-year term against Republican Joe Pinion, a conservative TV news commentator. In the Siena College poll released August 2, Schumer led Pinion 56%-35%.

State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli, a Democrat, is running for his fourth full term in office and faces Republican Paul Rodriguez, a Wall Street veteran who unsuccessfully ran for New York City comptroller last year. In the Siena poll, DiNapoli had 51% of the vote against Rodriguez’s 30%.

Attorney General Letitia James, a first-term Democrat, is running for reelection against Republican Michael Henry, a commercial litigation attorney. In the Siena poll, James led Henry by 50%-36%.

House Races
Based on the 2020 Census count, New York lost a congressional seat in the latest round of redistricting. There are currently 27 seats – 19 held by Democrats and eight by Republicans – which falls to 26 beginning with the next Congress in January, which will be based on the new district lines now in place and this year’s elections.

Of those 26 new districts, according to the latest FiveThirtyEight forecast, two were toss-up races, in the new 19th and 22nd congressional districts.

Fourteen districts are ranked solid blue (Democratic), three were ranked likely blue, and one ranked as leaning blue, while four were solid red (Republican), one was likely red, and one leaning red. The “lean” districts are seen as especially in play, with hopes and there are contested races across the state, including in New York City’s one Republican-held congressional district.

The Cook Political Report, meanwhile, has two New York ‘open’ races as toss-ups, in the new 19th and 22nd congressional districts.

Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney is running in the Hudson Valley’s new 17th district, leaving an open race for the new 18th district in the Mid-Hudson Valley, where Ulster County Executive Pat Ryan won the August 23 primary against two opponents. Ryan is facing Republican Assemblymember Colin Schmitt in the general election. (Ryan also won a special election against Republican Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro for current, expiring 19th district, slated the same day as the primary, and will serve as the congressional representative of the current 19th district until the end of the year. That seat was vacated by Antonio Delgado when he became Lieutenant Governor.)

There was also an open Democratic primary for the new 19th district, which covers parts of the Southern Tier, Catskills, and Hudson Valley. Attorney Josh Riley won the Democratic primary and will face Molinaro in the general election.

U.S. Rep. Claudia Tenney, a Republican who represents the 22nd district, is running for reelection within the new 24th district. That left an open primary on both sides of the aisle in the new 22nd. Republican nominee Brandon Williams, a Navy veteran and entrepreneur, is running against Democratic nominee Francis Conole, a Navy veteran and ​​former national security adviser, in a race that is being eyed by both parties as a major battleground contest.

Both the 19th and 22nd are among the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Red to Blue” list of districts that they hope to flip in November. Other New York districts on that list include the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd districts on Long Island and the 11th district in New York City.

In that 11th district, the only New York City congressional district represented by a Republican, Rep. Nicole Malliotakis is favored to keep her Staten Island and Southern Brooklyn seat. But, former Rep. Max Rose is hopeful that recent Democratic momentum is a good harbinger for his bid to pull off an upset while focusing on abortion and democracy.

For the National Republican Congressional Committee, the 3rd, 4th, 18th, 19th, and 20th districts are all targets for their offensive in House races. Many Republicans are also looking at the 17th in hopes of unseating Rep. Maloney, especially given his national campaign role, where Republican Assemblymember Michael Lawler is his general election opponent.

Gotham Gazette will have a more detailed rundown on New York congressional races to watch in the coming weeks.

State Senate Races
Democrats have a 42-20 majority in the 63-member State Senate, with one vacancy, giving them a comfortable cushion as they head into the general election. But Republicans, who held a slim Senate majority as recently as 2018, are hoping to make some gains by capitalizing on the ‘law and order’ message being offered by Zeldin and other candidates down ballot. That message helped Republicans win some recent local races on Long Island, which is always a battleground area.

The redistricting process created several new open seats and while Democrats have enrollment advantages, more moderate and independent voters can prove decisive in general elections.

Redistricting effectively created two new open seats in New York City – the 17th district in Brooklyn and the 59th district spanning parts of Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens – that are likely to go to Democrats considering the sheer overwhelming majority of their voter enrollment in the city.

In the 17th district, there was no primary and Democratic nominee Iwen Chu is running against Republican Vito LaBella in what is at least a somewhat competitive race. (The current District 17 is represented by State Senator Simcha Felder, a conservative Democrat, who is running for reelection in the new District 22.)

In the 59th, Democrat Kristen Gonzalez won a crowded primary to secure the nomination and very likely the seat. She is running against independent candidate Josh Bowen. Gonzalez, a democratic socialist, will likely grow the ranks of state legislators affiliated with the Democratic Socialists of America - New York City.

Republicans are playing defense in at least two seats, in State Senate Districts 41 and 61, where the races appear competitive, while they are on the offensive in districts across the state.

Their arguments are, broadly speaking, the same as the top of the ticket and they are hoping that voter concerns about inflation and public safety, among other issues, will help them flip several seats and potentially end the Democratic supermajority in the chamber.

“After years of one-party rule in Albany, New Yorkers are energized to change the direction of our state,” said State Senator Pam Helming, chair of the Senate Republican Campaign Committee, in a statement to Gotham Gazette. “Voters have seen the disastrous policies of the Senate Democrats that have made New York more expensive and less safe. The Senate Republican [sic] will make it clear to the people of this state that there is a viable alternative to pro-criminal, tax and spend Albany agenda. We will deliver our vision of a stronger, safer and more affordable New York to help us take back seats from Long Island to Buffalo and all parts in between.”

As a product of redistricting, the new Senate District 41 covers large parts of both the old District 41, represented by Republican State Senator Sue Serino, and the old District 46, represented by Democratic State Senator Michelle Hinchey. The two are now facing off in the general election in one of the two races where Republicans are defending a seat. The new district covers parts of Greene, Ulster, Dutchess, and Columbia counties.

Similarly, in western New York, incumbent Republican State Senator Ed Rath, who represents District 61, saw a significant westward shift in his district. Half of the new District 61 is what has been District 60, represented by Democratic State Senator Sean Ryan, setting up the two to face each other in the general election.

On Long Island, where more moderate Democrats were able to flip Republican seats in 2018, Republicans see an opportunity this year to make gains. 

In District 7, in northern Nassau County, Democratic State Senator Anna Kaplan is being challenged by Republican Jack Martins, a former state Senator who left office in 2017 after unsuccessfully running for Congress.

Democratic State Senator John Brooks, who currently represents District 8, declined to run for reelection after the redistricting process carved out most of his district, but soon changed his mind an is now running in the new District 5. He is facing off against Republican candidate Steve Rhoads.

In the new District 8, which covers the southwestern waterfront of Suffolk County, Republican Alexis Weik and Democrat John Alberts are running in the general election to fill the open seat.

In District 9, which covers the southwestern corner of Nassau County, Democratic State Senator Todd Kaminsky resigned this year to take a job with a lobbying firm, leaving an open race for his seat. Democrat Michael Pernick and Republican Patricia Canzoneri-Fitzpatrick are running to succeed him.

In several races, Republicans believe they have a strong shot of challenging sitting Democrats, some of which include areas home to current districts that Democrats have flipped in the last two election cycles.

In District 38, Democratic State Senator Elijah Reichlin-Melnick is being challenged by Republican William Weber Jr., who unsuccessfully challenged the senator in 2020. The new district covers most of Rockland County.

In District 40, Democratic State Senator Pete Harckham is being challenged by Republican Gina Arena. The new district covers parts of Rockland, Putnam, and Westchester counties.

In District 42, Democratic State Senator James Skoufis is being challenged by Republican Dorey Houle. The new district covers parts of Dutchess, Orange, and Putnam counties.

In District 50, Democratic State Senator John Mannion is being challenged by Republican Rebecca Shiroff. The district covers parts of Onondaga and Oswego counties.

Republicans have other prospects as well.

Democratic State Senator Rachel May, who represents District 53, is running for reelection in the new District 48 after redistricting. She faces two opponents in the general election: Republican candidate Julie Abbott and Conservative Party candidate Justin Coretti.

Republican State Senator Joseph Griffo, who represents District 47, is now running in the new District 53, which covers parts of Chenango, Madison, and Oneida counties. Griffo is unopposed in the general election.

"While a midterm election is historically difficult for the party in power, we remain confident that voters will recognize the need to fight against Republican extremism that threatens reproductive freedom and so many of the rights we’ve come to hold dear,” said State Senator Michael Gianaris, the Democratic deputy majority leader and chair of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee.

There are several other open seats as well including in Districts 3, 4, 23, 34, 39, 43, and 52, some of which are expected to be competitive.

In District 3 in Suffolk County on Long Island, Republican nominee Dean Murray is running against Democratic nominee Farzeen Bham. The district covers areas that are heavily Republican, spanning parts of three existing Senate districts represented by Republicans.

In District 4, which covers the southern parts of Suffolk County, Democrat Monica Martinez – a former state senator who lost reelection in 2020 – is running against Republican nominee Wendy Rodriguez. The district looks to be a toss up, composed of parts of three existing Senate districts represented by a Democrat and two Republicans.

In District 23, which covers parts of Brooklyn’s southern waterfront and the North Shore waterfront of Staten Island, Democratic State Senator Diane Savino did not run for reelection this year, giving Republicans hope of picking up a seat in the city. Democrat Jessica Scarcella-Spanton is running against Republican Joseph Tirone for the seat. Voters in the district tend to vote for Democrats, likely giving Scarcella-Spanton an advantage.

In District 34, which covers the East Bronx and parts of Westchester, Democrat Nathalia Fernandez faces Republican nominee Samantha Zherka. It is a heavily Democratic district and Fernandez is likely to be the winner.

In District 39, which spans parts of Dutchess, Putnam, and Orange counties, Republican nominee Robert Rolison is running against Democratic nominee Julie Shiroishi. Most of the new district falls within the confines of existing district 41, which is represented by Republican Sue Serino, which could signal a significant shift in voting patterns this year.

Republican State Senator Daphne Jordan represents District 43 but, after redistricting, ran in the new District 44 before withdrawing from that race. In the new District 43, which covers parts of Rensselaer and Washington counties, Democrat Andrea Smyth is running against Republican Jacob Ashby in the general election for the open seat. The new district spans parts of existing Senate districts that are both represented by Republicans, which could mean that Ashby has an edge heading into the general election.

In District 52, which covers Cortland, Tompkins, and parts of Broome counties, Democrat Lea Webb is running against Republican nominee Richard David. The new district covers parts of three existing Senate districts that all elected Republicans in the past.

Gotham Gazette will have a more detailed rundown on New York State Senate to watch in the coming weeks.

State Assembly Races
Democrats practically have a stranglehold on the Assembly and currently hold 107 out of 150 seats, with the remaining 43 held by Republicans. The state’s chaotic redistricting process led to a judge throwing out the new Assembly map but not in time for the June primary, which means that Assembly districts are set to change again for the next election in 2024.

There are some races that could be competitive this fall.

Republican Assemblymember Michael Lawler, who narrowly flipped the District 97 seat in 2020 against incumbent Democrat Ellen Jaffee, is his party’s general election nominee for the 17th congressional district. Republican John McGowan and Democrat Eudson Francois are running to replace him in the Assembly.

In District 103, which includes parts of Dutchess and Ulster counties, Sarahana Shrestha, a climate organizer and Ulster County co-chair of the Democratic Socialists of America, defeated incumbent Democrat Kevin Cahill in the June primary. Shrestha now faces Republican Patrick Sheehan in the general election.

In District 135 outside Rochester, Democratic Assemblymember Jen Lunsford defeated incumbent Republican Mark Johns in 2020 by a slim margin. This year, she is being challenged by Republican Joseph Chenelly in the general election.

There are several other races where incumbents are not running for reelection, which means there will be a new Assembly member from that district, likely a Democrat in most cases. They include Districts 30, 37, 63, 65, 73, and 75.

In District 30, which covers parts of Woodside and Elmhurst in Queens, Democrat Steven Raga is running against Republican Sean Lally. In the heavily Democratic borough, Raga is the apparent favorite, though the new district lines are drastically different than when represented by a Democrat previously.

In District 37, which covers Long Island City, most of Sunnyside and Maspeth in Queens, Democrat Juan Ardila is running unopposed. The district is currently represented by Assemblymember Cathy Nolan, who is retiring after 37 years in office.

In District 46, which covers Fort Hamilton, parts of Bay Ridge and Dyker Heights, Coney Island and Sea Gate in South Brooklyn, Assemblymember Mathylde Frontus is facing a challenge from Republican candidate Alec Brook-Krasny, a former Democratic Assemblymember who previously represented the district. 

In District 63, covering Staten Island’s Mid-Island communities, Assemblymember Michael Cusick, a Democrat, is not running for reelection. Democrat Vincent Argenziano and Republican nominee Sam Pirozzolo are running to replace him. Voters in the district tend to vote for Republicans in higher numbers in general elections but Cusick nonetheless served the district since 2003, making it hard to predict which candidate will be favored this fall.

In District 65, covering Manhattan’s Lower East Side and Chinatown, Democrat Grace Lee is running against Republican Helen Qiu. It is a heavily Democratic area currently represented by Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, who declined to run for reelection as she pursued the new 10th congressional district seat, but narrowly lost the primary there.

In District 73, covering Murray Hill, Midtown East and the Upper East Side in Manhattan,  Democrat Alex Bores is running against Republican David Casavis. The district is currently represented by Democratic Assemblymember Dan Quart, who declined to seek reelection. The district is heavily Democratic but contains a significant number of registered Republicans.

In District 75, stretching from Chelsea to Columbus Circle on the West Side of Manhattan, Democrat Tony Simone is running against Republican Joseph Maffia. This heavily Democratic area is currently represented by Assemblymember Dick Gottfried, who is retiring after 52 years in the Assembly.

Note - this article has been updated. 

In the State Legislature (photo: NYS Senate Media Services)

Governor Andrew Cuomo and legislative leaders did not intend to hand map-drawing power to the courts when, in 2012, they hashed out a state constitutional amendment that recast the decennial redistricting process. Nor did they envision, after months of contentious public debate and closed-door negotiations, that the first pass at the new system would result in a hastily-organized, bifurcated election season with two major primaries taking place separately in a single summer.

Their amendment established a bipartisan commission – appointed by the Legislature and relying on its final approval – intended to create more public involvement and less gerrymandering when district lines for Congress, State Senate, and State Assembly are redrawn. But the process, which takes place every ten years after each U.S. Census, descended into chaos this year when the commission failed to reach an agreement on new maps. That left the relatively-new Democratic supermajorities in both legislative houses to draw their own lines, only to have them thrown out by the courts for unfairly favoring party incumbents and usurping the commission's role.

In April, the state's highest court appointed a special master – an elections expert from Carnegie Mellon University in Pennsylvania – to redraw the congressional and State Senate maps and postponed those party primary elections to August. A separate lawsuit later invalidated the Assembly map but with less time to postpone elections, leaving the Assembly primaries in June under the Democrats' original lines. The process has provoked criticism from all sides, with Republicans chastising Democrats for gerrymandering and Democrats claiming the Court of Appeals overstepped its mandate while rebuking the special master for a lack of familiarity with the districts he drew. The result was a slew of contentious primaries and general elections expected to be far more competitive than under the Democrats' original plans.

Now some good-government groups and Democratic lawmakers, including Governor Kathy Hochul, say the system should change again. Republicans, who got more of what they wanted when the commission deadlocked and Democrats flew too close to the sun, are less eager to alter the playing field.

"We need a better process," Hochul said in an interview on WAMC radio shortly after the August primaries.

"My God, it collapsed," she said.

The governor hasn't shared specifics on what she wants to see changed. Asked for details, a spokesperson referred Gotham Gazette to the WAMC clip.

"That was a dirty deal by Andrew Cuomo and the Senate Republicans back in 2012," said State Senate Deputy Majority Leader Michael Gianaris, in a July podcast interview with Gotham Gazette. "We should absolutely revisit it. We have now some time to do that. The next redistricting is, of course, a decade away. So we have the opportunity now to do it right and put something on the ballot that New Yorkers deserve."

Gianaris, who leads Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, sponsored an amendment in 2021 that would tweak the process on technical grounds but wouldn't address some of the structural dilemmas he is concerned with (voters rejected it last fall).

"It shouldn't be something that is designed for deadlock," he said. "When you set up a commission that has five Democrats and five Republicans on it, you're going to get a five-to-five tie on every important decision they have to make."

District lines are redrawn every decade after the Census to account for changes in the population. Districts have to adhere to criteria outlined in the U.S. Constitution, the federal Voting Rights Act, and the New York state constitution; they should be the same size, not favor incumbents or abridge the voting rights of protected groups, maintain "communities of interest," and be contiguous and compact.

As Gianaris said, there is still plenty of time to amend the state constitution before the next redistricting cycle in 2032. Amendments require passage by two consecutive legislative classes in both houses and then voters via a ballot referendum. The process could take up to four years to unfold. Such an effort could be derailed if Republicans were to make enough gains through this year's and subsequent elections.

Republican State Senate Minority Leader Robert Ortt condemned the Democratic maps but said the same laws and procedures should be followed in the next redistricting cycle.

"From the beginning, Albany Democrats injected partisan politics into the redistricting process, violating the will of the public and the State Constitution," Ortt said in a statement provided by a spokesperson. "Despite multiple votes from the New Yorkers affirming their demand for an independent redistricting process, the Senate Democrats decided to put their political survival ahead of the will of the people."

Voters approved the new system in a ballot referendum in 2014. It was the culmination of the 2012 deal among Cuomo, then-Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, a Democrat, and then-Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos, a Republican, to establish a new commission to hold public hearings and propose maps to the Legislature, which kept the power to reject and redraw them. The deal – designed to appease calls for a more independent process – came on the heels of another much-criticized deal, among the leaders, that saw Senate districts redrawn to favor Republicans and Assembly districts drawn to favor Democrats.

The ten-member commission was appointed last year, two each by Republican and Democratic leaders in the Senate and Assembly, with the remaining two appointed by the commissioners, inevitably split along party lines.

"I would be the first to say that the commission failed spectacularly in its first run but I think we were set up to fail," said David Imamura, a Democratic appointee who chaired the commission, in an interview with Gotham Gazette. "A commission that was split evenly, five Democrats, five Republicans, was always going to stalemate in the end, especially when potential control of Congress and the State Senate were at play.

"I mean, it was impossible to do anything without needing to debate. We literally couldn't buy pens or get printer ink without all ten commissioners agreeing," he added. "So given that, how are we supposed to come to an agreement on some of the most divisive issues a democracy can face."

Imamura suggested New York model its process on California, which has a commission that includes Democrats, Republicans, and independents, whose members are chosen randomly from a pool approved by an independent body rather than by political appointment. He acknowledged any changes would require again altering the state constitution.

"I think that's the only way that we could have a system that functions," Imamura said.

The commission failed twice to agree on a single set of maps, allowing the Democrat-controlled Legislature to draw the lines ahead of the June primaries. Republicans challenged the Congressional and State Senate maps in rural Steuben County, where a Republican judge invalidated them. The Court of Appeals then ruled lawmakers did not have the authority to draft their own lines on procedural grounds, because the redistricting commission had never voted on maps a second time before the Legislature stepped in. The court also found lawmakers had gerrymandered congressional districts in violation of the state constitution. The judge gave the Legislature the opportunity to redraw both maps while appointing the special master to draw a separate map, to be used if lawmakers failed to agree.

In April, the State Court of Appeals, whose seven members were all appointed by Democratic governors, upheld the lower court's findings and removed the Legislature's ability for a do-over, leaving the special master's maps in place — a set of decisions criticized by many Democrats, including Gianaris, who said the Court of Appeals had issued "a partisan attack" against Democrats. The new lines stirred a fair deal of controversy, creating competitive open seats and pitting longtime Democratic incumbents against one another.

The Assembly lines, which were later challenged and invalidated on similar grounds, remained in place for the June primaries. Those boundaries will have to be redrawn ahead of the 2024 elections, the court ruled, with both sides now debating whether to return to the redistricting commission or a special master.

"Moving forward, politicians should follow the clear will of the public for fair independent redistricting, or be voted out of office," said Ortt.

Asked about changes to the state constitution, Ortt's spokesperson wrote, "In 2014, the Independent Redistricting process was picked by New Yorkers to keep the politics out of redistricting."

State Republican Party Chair Nick Langworthy, who recently won the party's nomination for Congress in Western New York, said the redistricting process should continue under the 2014 amendment.

"The redistricting commission was a sham from the outset and was set up to fail," Langworthy said in a statement. "Kathy Hochul said it herself that she was going to use her power to try and gerrymander districts, but thanks to our lawsuit and the clear decision by the courts, Democrats were stopped in their tracks."

"The law is clear we now have fair districts but it's in spite of Democrats who did everything they could to rig the election and subvert the will of the people," Langworthy added.

Jessica Proud, a GOP spokesperson, reiterated the party's stance. "The constitution is clear that the district lines must be fair. We are going to be focused on electing a Republican governor and breaking Democrats' supermajority in the legislature so that accountability can be restored," she told Gotham Gazette in an email.

The Senate and Assembly Democratic majorities did not respond to requests for comment about potential efforts to amend the redistricting process. Spokespeople for the New York State Democratic Party and Republican Assembly minority leader William Barclay declined to comment.

The office of New York Attorney General Letitia James, who defended the rejected maps in state court, referred inquiries to the Legislature and Governor Hochul.

While positions have not hardened around the specifics of changes, good-government groups have outlined some principles that would help insulate the process from legislative control (without turning it over to the courts).

Blair Horner, executive director of the New York Public Interest Research Group (NYPIRG), said the commission should include a balance of Republicans, Democrats, and party-unaffiliated members who meet minimum qualifications and are chosen by a lottery, like in California. It should also have an odd number of members to avoid gridlock, he said. 

"What makes it different is it's very hard to game," Horner told Gotham Gazette of the California model, "which is what happened here, no surprises."

He noted that the office that handles the appointments in California does not have an equivalent in New York.

Good-government groups were divided on the 2014 referendum, with NYPIRG and Common Cause New York opposed and Citizens Union and the League of Women Voters in support.

"It was designed to gridlock so that the Legislature could make the decisions," said Horner. 

"There were some backstops," he added. "You needed two-thirds supermajorities in both houses in order to jam things through. And I don't think when Cuomo was negotiating this deal with the leaders that anyone thought that that was possible, that both houses would be controlled by supermajorities." (Democrats reached that threshold in 2021 based on the 2020 elections.)

Cuomo and the good-government groups backing the amendment argued it was a step forward, if not a full loaf, because it removed some of the initial map-drawing procedures from legislative leaders, allowed for more public input, and created new mechanisms for accountability.

The groups were also split on a proposed constitutional amendment on the ballot in 2021 that would have made a number of technical changes to redistricting in New York, including adjusting the legislative voting thresholds for approving maps, fixing the number of State Senate seats at 63, and changing where incarcerated individuals are counted, among other things. While the amendment was voted down by voters, some groups, like NYPIRG, want to see it revived and passed twice again to be put on the ballot in the future.

In an Albany Times Union op-ed in May, Laura Ladd Bierman and Betsy Gotbaum, the executive directors of the League of Women Voters of New York State and Citizens Union, respectively, laid out some suggested reforms to make the commission less partisan and more independent.

They called for the commission to include party-unaffiliated (independent) members, with minimum standards in appointments, and for it to possibly be expanded to reflect "the full diversity of the state." They also called for the end of the Legislature's veto power over commission maps, and for commission decisions to be made by a simple majority vote (currently maps require approval from seven out of ten commissioners, including at least one from each appointing entity). They suggested the commission's timetable be advanced to leave room for potential court challenges ahead of the June primaries.

"While the Court’s action was a necessary step to validate and enforce the reforms adopted in the 2014 Constitutional amendment, it highlights the critical opportunity for the Legislature and New York voters to act now, well in advance of the next redistricting cycle, to build upon the reforms adopted in 2014," Bierman and Gotbaum wrote.

State Senator Zellnor Myrie, a Democrat who chairs the Senate elections committee, said he is "open to conversations" on how to improve the process for the next cycle. He raised concern specifically about Republicans' ability to select the Steuben County venue for the court challenge, which was favorable to their cause.

"One aspect of the process that I remain concerned about is the ability of certain individuals to forum shop and bring such important litigation — litigation that determines who has a voice in this state for the next decade — anywhere they choose or feel they’ll have the best advantage," Myrie wrote in a statement to Gotham Gazette.

"We should look at whether that’s a practice worth continuing as it specifically relates to redistricting, given the enormous impact these maps have on our democracy,” he said.

Assemblymember Kenneth Zebrowski, a Hudson Valley Democrat who sponsored the 2021 amendment with Gianaris, did not respond to requests for comment.

Democratic Assemblymember Robert Carroll of Brooklyn said lawmakers needed to start the process of reforming the system, noting the length of time it takes to amend the state constitution. 

"We should come up with a new system, we should come up with it now," Carroll, a frequent supporter of democracy-related reforms, told Gotham Gazette.

"In four years time, we won't be that far from the next Census in 2030," he added, "so time is of the essence…because if there is a failure we would have to try again."

Horner offered the longer-term perspective: "Yes we will be trying to do what we can," he said. "This is a sisyphean task that we've been at for 40 years, going on 50. So, yeah, you know, we're gonna make another run at it."

State Senator Gustavo Rivera (photo: NYS Senate Media Services)

Bronx State Senator Gustavo Rivera is no stranger to contentious campaigns, but his bid this year for a seventh term has been exceptionally so.

Rivera, a hero of New York’s progressive left known for his independence and outspokenness, recently survived a tough Democratic primary race by a narrow margin — just 506 votes. The particularly competitive and at times nasty primary was in part the result of a messy redistricting process, but also showed both interest among many local political figures in ousting Rivera and the strength of his support among allies.

“There are folks who do know me and know about my work, certainly the districts that I've represented for 11 years…but you have people who don't know you and then the first thing that they hear about you is that you're just crazy radical…that will have an impact on some folks,” Rivera said of the nature of the campaign in his hard-fought primary win in a significantly altered district, during a recent appearance on Gotham Gazette’s Max Politics podcast.

Now that he’s through the primary, Rivera is all but certain to remain in the State Senate come January, when the new class of legislators is seated, given the district’s immense Democratic tilt.

In the August primary, Rivera, who has represented the 33rd district since 2011, beat Miguelina Camilo by only about 4.6% of the vote. Camilo, backed by the Bronx Democratic Party and a number of prominent elected officials, wound up running in the same district as Rivera after redistricting added western Bronx neighborhoods to much of the current 33rd district, areas where she had planned to run for State Senate in what she had thought would be part of a new 34th district, including her home, without an incumbent in the race.

But the primary turned into one of the latest battles between ‘progressives’ on one side with Rivera and ‘the establishment’ on the other with Camilo, while involving a number of other political rivalries as well, some of ambition and some of policy.

“The newly-drawn 33rd is roughly about 50% of the district I currently represent, so the one I've represented for over 11 years, including my district offices within it,” Rivera told podcast host Ben Max, Gotham Gazette’s editor. “There's a few neighborhoods that made their way back, namely Norwood, Tracy Towers and Scott Tower, those I represented very briefly back in 2010 when I was first elected. I have been here long enough to have survived two of these redistricting messes. And so between those two, it's about 70% of a district that I've represented prior.” Rivera added that the southern part of his current district was “chopped off,” but that his constituency now includes Riverdale, Spuyten Duyvil up to the Yonkers line, pieces of Allerton, and more of Van Nest and Morris Park.

Rivera’s personal residence is no longer a part of the district, he mentioned, meaning he will have to give up his long-time, rent-stabilized home sometime next year. “I'm looking forward to continuing to represent this district and to do more work up in Albany. But this part I'm not looking forward to,” he said of having to move.

The new 33rd State Senate district in the Bronx is 13% whiter and 11% less Hispanic than the current 33rd, according to Redistricting & You: New York from the CUNY Mapping Service, adding some wealthier areas of the northwest Bronx — communities that largely supported the more moderate Camilo in the primary.

Rivera said that the new district does not necessarily mean a change in his politics. A progressive, he has backed policies such as the New York Health Act, a bill to create single-payer healthcare in New York. As chair of the Senate health committee since Democrats took a majority in the upper house of the Legislature in 2019, Rivera has sought to find a way forward on the controversial legislation.

“I do not think that my positions are radical. I do not think that fighting for universal healthcare is a crazy, radical thing. I do not believe that fighting for fair housing policy is a crazy, radical thing. I don't think that fighting for full funding for public schools is a crazy thing,” Rivera said on the podcast, when asked about whether he needs to moderate some of his stances given his new likely constituents. He pledged to continue working on the New York Health Act next session in the Legislature.

During the Democratic primary, Rivera’s campaign was endorsed by several prominent labor unions, including the New York State Nurses Association, the New York City Central Labor Council, Transport Workers Union Local 100, and 1199 SEIU health care workers. He had the backing of prominent elected officials including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, City Comptroller Brad Lander, many of his Senate colleagues, including Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins, Senator Alessandra Biaggi, and others. He also had the backing of many progressive groups, including the Working Families Party.

In addition to the Bronx Democratic Party and its chair, State Senator Jamaal Bailey, Camilo was endorsed by several other prominent officials and labor unions, including Congressional Reps. Adriano Espaillat and Ritchie Torres, Bronx Borough President Vanessa Gibson, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie of the Bronx, and others, as well as the Carpenters Union, District Council 37, which is the city’s largest municipal labor union, and 32BJ SEIU, the building workers union.

Rivera won by the smallest margin of his career as a state senator. While stressing his victory, Rivera attributes his near-loss to the “enormous amount of money and resources” spent against him, including by promoting misinformation about his record.

Much of that discourse centered around Rivera’s stance on BDS, the movement to boycott, divest from, and sanction Israel, he said. For example, an August 11 ad in the Riverdale Press stated, “Gustavo Rivera supports the antisemitic BDS agenda.” Rivera told Gotham Gazette that this false claim has been especially perpetuated by Assemblymember Jeffrey Dinowitz, a Democrat who represents the western Bronx’s District 81 and with whom Rivera has been feuding for years.

“He took a community for whom Israel is an incredibly important and essential issue to many folks out there who have direct connections to folks back in Israel, and then started to say that I was supportive of folks who did not want Israel to exist,” Rivera said of Dinowitz.

In 2014, Rivera voted against a bill introduced by then-State Senator Jeff Klein of the Bronx, which would have prevented CUNY and SUNY campuses that were involved in a boycott of Israeli academic institutions from accessing state funding. Rivera maintains that Dinowitz has spread misinformation about this vote.

In July, Dinowitz told NY1 that Rivera “does support BDS,” a claim that Rivera has refuted.

“Instead of providing any nuance to what that vote was, he would repeat over and over again, ‘oh, he supports BDS,’ which is not true. I do not. But I believe that we should not criminalize it,” Rivera told Gotham Gazette.

Rivera believes that Dinowitz targeted residents of the new 33rd district who were not previously part of his constituency.

“The incredible amount of money that was spent on lying…over and over and over again, aided and abetted in particular by Jeff Dinowitz…that's the type of thing that will do when you have folks who do not know you,” Rivera said.

Rivera also faced opposition around his education politics, where he has opposed expanding charter schools and focused on increasing state funding to traditional public schools in the city and state. Camilo and many of her backers are more supportive of charter schools, which are privately run and mostly non-union, and raising the state cap on new charter schools in the city, which has been hit. Rivera supports keeping the cap in place.

In the weeks leading up to the primary, New Yorkers for a Balanced Albany, a super PAC in support of charter schools funded by major conservative Wall Street figures who have often been involved in New York politics, reportedly spent more than $200,000 in efforts to unseat Rivera and Robert Jackson, the state senator for the 31st district, spanning parts of Manhattan and the Bronx, who has also been a critic of charter schools.

“As I've told parents and teachers who work for charter schools, if you're a charter school in my district, I certainly want you to succeed and I want the students in your classroom to succeed,” Rivera said, noting that his priorities lie in traditional public schools, where the “overwhelming majority” of students, both in his district and New York overall, receive their education.

A lawyer from the Bronx, Camilo supports the New York Health Act, as well as increased funding for public education, and the advocacy of civil rights for groups like immigrants and LGBTQ+ individuals.

“I want to be the first Dominican Woman to represent the Bronx in the New York State Senate,” Camilo wrote in a tweet announcing her campaign to represent communities home to many Dominicans and Puerto Ricans, among others in the heavily Latino district.

According to Rivera, who is Puerto Rican, the 33rd State Senate district is home to the most Dominican residents of any state legislative seat in the country.

Rivera, who mentioned he had just visited the Dominican Republic on state business, said his ethnic identity and those of his opponents and fellow senators cannot help but come into play in policy-making and campaigning.

“There are certainly going to be dynamics of different Latino groups. As far as Latino leaders, you know, there's going to be different dynamics that play themselves out,” he said, noting that his supporters transcend demographic divisions, in response to a question about whether there was something of a Dominican-Puerto Rican split in the primary given support from Rep. Espaillat, who is Dominican, and others for Camilo.

As Rivera advances to near-guaranteed victory in the fall general election, he emerges from what Politico’s Bill Mahoney described as “the messiest primary involving a Senate incumbent since Democrats won a majority in 2018.” On the podcast, Rivera repeatedly stressed that he is excited and ready to serve all of his constituents, including in collaboration with those individuals and groups that backed his opponent.

“I would just underline anybody who hears this, who lives in the newly drawn 33rd who did not vote for me, I am looking forward to getting to know you, looking forward to meeting you, looking forward to hearing about your concerns. And again, whether you voted for me or not, I work for you and that has always and will always be how I focus,” he said. “The work is about serving people. That's what I will continue to do. I'm looking forward to continuing to do it, at least two more years.”

[LISTEN to the full conversation: Max Politics Podcast: Senator Gustavo Rivera on Surviving a Major Primary Challenge]