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Federal Government Paves Way for City-Backed Retirement Savings Program


de blasio aarp retirement savings city hall rally

Mayor de Blasio at a February rally (Demetrius Freeman/Mayor's Office)


Responding to interest from cities including New York, the federal Department of Labor has ruled that certain municipalities can establish publicly-run retirement savings programs for private-sector workers whose employers do not offer such a program.

In February, Mayor Bill de Blasio announced his intention to create a new retirement-savings program during his State of the City speech, citing the fact that more than half of private sector workers in New York City do not have access to a retirement savings program through their place of work. New York City could become the first city in the country to launch such a program, which exist in five states.

The de Blasio administration hailed the Department of Labor ruling, which was posted December 19, as a key step in making the plan a reality.

“We applaud the United States Department of Labor for taking this important step toward building retirement security for everyday Americans,” said de Blasio spokesperson Freddi Goldstein, in a statement to Gotham Gazette. “For the better part of the year, we have been advocating and preparing to become the first city in the country to create a retirement savings program for private sector employees, and with the recent DOL rule, we are one step closer.”

Soon after de Blasio’s February announcement, the mayor rallied at City Hall with other top elected officials and advocates in support of creating a private-sector retirement-savings program in New York City. The mayor said he would be working with City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito, Public Advocate Letitia James, and City Council Member Ben Kallos on legislation. In June 2015 Public Advocate James released a reporting highlighting gaps in retirement savings for many New Yorkers. City Comptroller Scott Stringer, who oversees the city’s public pension system and was at the time studying the best path for a private sector program, also attended the rally in support.

In order to move a bill and launch a program, the city needed clearance from the Department of Labor, which it petitioned for and has now received.

“More workers saving for retirement now means more financially secure retirees in the future,” said U.S. Secretary of Labor Thomas E. Perez in a statement accompanying the DOL ruling. “This is good for workers and families trying to build their nest eggs, and good for the long-term strength of the economy.”

The DOL announcement said that three cities -- New York, Philadelphia, and Seattle -- have shown interest in launching a city-backed private-sector retirement-savings program. According to the de Blasio administration, the city would put up seed money to launch the program and expects it to be self-sustaining after an initial start-up period. The city would not have any additional financial burden and would not guarantee benefits like it does with its public sector pensions. Goldstein said there is no timetable for legislation at this point.

As initially outlined by de Blasio, the program would apply to workers at business of ten employees or more that do not already have a retirement-savings program (a pension or 401(k)). Businesses that offer programs could not dissolve them to move employees to the city-initiated one.

As mandated by the Department of Labor, it would be optional for workers, though advocates like AARP New York are calling for any such program to include auto-enrollment, which would make opting in far easier and is said to drastically increase participation. De Blasio’s initial proposal outline included auto-enrollment.

De Blasio’s February outline also said that contributions would be “exclusively from employees (rather than from employers or the City) and made through payroll” and “based on a default rate,” though “employees would have the ability to change their rate or opt out of the program.” Additionally, workers “would be able to transfer the savings account from job to job.” The city “would create a board to establish and oversee the management of the program,” which would be phased in over the course of years.

In October, Comptroller Stringer put out a detailed proposal for what the program could like like, including a new "NYC 401(k) marketplace."

In a statement Thursday, Stringer called the Department of Labor's new ruling "a major step in the right direction, because every worker should have a fair shot at a secure retirement." Of his report, Stringer said, "We hope New York City Nest Egg will be a blueprint for reform. This work is so important, and we will work with stakeholders across all levels of government to move this issue forward in the new year."

According to AARP’s policy shop, more than half of private-sector workers in New York State -- over 3.5 million people -- lack access to a retirement savings program, which are especially scarce through small businesses.

Per the de Blasio administration, “only 43 percent of working New Yorkers have access to a plan that can help them save for retirement,” but they are often subject to large fees, and “even those who have started to save do not have much: 40 percent of New Yorkers between the ages of 50 and 64 have less than $10,000 saved for retirement.”

The city-focused ruling from the Department of Labor, which applies only to municipalities of a certain size, comes after DOL paved the way for state-run programs earlier this year. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo already has a commission studying the issue. A state program could supercede a city one, though it would also depend on the details of the programs if the city were to launch one before the state. It is too early to tell which level of government will act first. In the city, Public Advocate James and City Council Member Ben Kallos are expected to lead on introducing legislation at the City Council, and the bill would likely go through Kallos' governmental operations committee.

According to the Department of Labor, “States and political subdivisions have a substantial governmental interest to encourage retirement savings in order to protect the economic security of their residents.”

“Our city and state leaders have a golden opportunity to empower millions of New Yorkers to build financial security,” said AARP New York State Director Beth Finkel, in a statement reacting to the new DOL ruling. “The state and city should fill in the gaps left by an economy in which fewer companies are able to provide savings options.”

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by Ben Max, Gotham Gazette
     

Read more by this writer.

Note: this article has been updated with comment from Comptroller Stringer and a few additional details.

Bill de Blasio’s Police Accountability Problem


de blasio nypd headquarters

Mayor de Blasio (photo: Ed Reed/Mayor's Office)


Mayor Bill de Blasio’s campaign account recently posted a Twitter message touting the NYPD’s neighborhood policing initiative. “New York City is proving to the rest of the country that respectful, compassionate neighborhood policing drives down crime & makes us safer,” the tweet from @BilldeBlasio read.

In a response symbolic of a problem de Blasio is facing as he heads into his re-election year, Lumumba Bandele tweeted his response to de Blasio: “You & #NYPD are in no position to talk about respect & compassion.” Bandele then cited the fact that the police officers who killed Ramarley Graham, an unarmed black teenager shot to death in 2012, and “others,” likely a reference including Eric Garner, are still employed by the city.

Bandele identifies himself on Twitter as an organizer, writer, producer, and professor from Bedford-Stuyvesant. His mention of Ramarley Graham came as there has been increased attention from police reform activists to pressure de Blasio to proceed with an NYPD trial for Officer Richard Haste and the others involved in Graham’s death. NYPD Commissioner James O’Neill recently announced that such a trial was likely to begin in early 2017.

The new year, de Blasio’s fourth as mayor, is also expected to see movement regarding accountability for Officer Daniel Pantaleo, whose chokehold led to Garner’s 2014 death during an attempted arrest. A Staten Island grand jury declined to indict Pantaleo in 2014, and the federal Department of Justice has been investigating his actions, which, according to de Blasio and the NYPD, has kept the city from moving ahead with any of its own disciplinary procedure.

As the mayor kicks off his re-election campaign, police reform activists, including some elected officials, are frustrated with de Blasio for what they see as a failure to live up to his 2013 promise as a police reformer, especially with regard to increasing accountability at the NYPD. While these two high-profile cases may soon see developments, advocates say that punishment for officers takes far too long and is far too soft, and that on holding officers accountable for inappropriate or illegal behavior, the mayor has done nothing systemic to change NYPD culture.

For his part, de Blasio argues that he has been the reformer he said he would be, that he has overseen major changes to policing in New York City while both crime and arrests have declined. De Blasio, a Democrat, has been battling perceptions that he is "anti-cop" and would be soft on crime since his 2013 campaign. While he has mostly assuaged the latter, the former persists in some corners, perhaps contibuting to a lack of action in addressing accountabiity, even as, on the other side of the equation, reformers believe he has not been tough enough on badly-behaving officers.

Some reform advocates do give de Blasio credit for following through on elements of his campaign rhetoric, which had a significant focus on policing as part of his larger call for greater equity. But, they are quick to note that de Blasio’s efforts have not extended into essential areas of transparency and accountability.

City Council Member Jumaane Williams and members of Communities United for Police Reform, for example, acknowledge that de Blasio has overseen certain tactical changes at the NYPD, like instituting a new training regime focused on de-escalation, continuing to reduce street stops, and a more lenient approach to marijuana arrests. But, they believe that it amounts to little if it is not accompanied by major changes to how police officers are dealt with when they abuse their power, especially around excessive use of force.

Real culture change, they say, requires both front- and back-end reform -- new training, strategies, and directives, as well as beefed up oversight and increased transparency and accountability. At the same time de Blasio has been criticized for doing little on officer accountability, after decades of doing so the NYPD stopped making public a weekly update on officer disciplinary actions, citing their realization that they had been violating a state law.

When de Blasio and NYPD Commissioner James O’Neill held an early December press conference to announce low crime in the city, Communities United put out a press release saying, “As Mayor de Blasio and Commissioner O’Neill gave briefing on crime data from November, they continued to ignore alleged abuses and misconduct during month.” The release linked to more than two dozen news articles about alleged police abuses or a lack of transparency into the NYPD.

“There’s a lot of talk about building relationships and building trust between communities and police,” but “our position is, hold up, in order for us to have trust, we need greater accountability,” said Monifa Bandele, a vice president at Moms Rising, a national organization that in New York is part of Communities United for Police Reform. Bandele spoke with Gotham Gazette after CPR held a mid-December press conference calling for new measures to improve transparency and accountability in the NYPD. Police officers regularly violate people’s rights, she said, but “nothing seems to come of it.”

CPR and a majority of City Council members want to see the Right to Know Act passed. The legislation would require police officers to provide more information to people they are stopping on the street, including identification. Despite majority support, the Right to Know Act has stalled in the City Council because de Blasio does not support it, Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito has not allowed it to come to a vote, and other Council members have been unwilling to move it to a vote without the speaker’s blessing. Mark-Viverito did announce a compromise with the NYPD to institute elements of the legislation through NYPD training and the patrol guide.

Council Member Williams is one sponsor of the Right to Know Act, and while he wants to see more from de Blasio and the NYPD, he also says that there has been progress. In an interview, Williams said that there probably hasn’t been enough credit given to de Blasio for some of the change, but that that is a result of other failings.

“It’s very real that when it comes to transparency and accountability we’re no better than any other city in this nation and that’s a problem, we should be leading this effort,” Williams said.

“One of the best ways to change behaviors is to make sure people feel there’s accountability for that behavior,” said Williams, a Brooklyn Democrat. “So those are the type of things that I think people have yet to see and they’re very concerned about it and it’s what he campaigned on so I think people have an expectation to see it.”

Williams said he’s pleased about neighborhood policing, street stops continuing to decrease, and marijuana arrests being down, but that the city still needs to look at the racial breakdown, the percentages by demographic group, of some of the stops and arrest data. It is a sentiment echoed by leaders from Communities United for Police Reform, an umbrella group, as well as PROP, the Police Reform Organizing Project, which monitors arrest data and court proceedings. These activists say that it is good that a number of metrics are trending downward overall, but that disproportionate racial disparities persist on everything from street stops to summonses and arrests for all types of low-level crimes.

“I would love to hear a coherent answer on that,” Williams said when asked why he thinks de Blasio hasn’t been more aggressive on the transparency and accountability aspects of police reform.

Asked recently about the issue, de Blasio told WNYC radio host Brian Lehrer that he believes he’s lived up to his promises on policing and that disciplinary matters are done on a case-by-case basis.

“What did I say we were going to do? We were going to greatly decrease the use of stop-and-frisk. We did that. We were going to institute neighborhood policing. We’re doing that. We were going to stop the things that were causing a rift between police and community. For example, we stopped the arrest for low-level marijuana possession. You know, we are now doing an entirely different training regimen for our cops including de-escalation when there are encounters with civilians. We’re starting implicit bias training at the NYPD – a huge step forward for the largest police department in the country,” de Blasio said December 7 on WNYC.

The mayor continued: “I think folks who want reform should look at all that – all the things that they had said they wanted are actually happening. In terms of the disciplinary cases, each and every one of those is going to be seen through. As you know, the Garner case, right now, is in the hands of the U.S. Justice Department. When they finish their process, if they do not bring charges, there will be disciplinary action determined through the NYPD’s due process.”

“So, I don’t put those pieces together the same way that some critics do,” de Blasio said. “I think we have made steady progress on police reform.”

To support his point, de Blasio said that the city has “reinvigorated” the Civilian Complaint Review Board, a nominally independent agency that hears civilian complaints about the NYPD, holds hearings, and recommends punishments. Under de Blasio, complaints against police officers to the CCRB have dropped, something the mayor regularly cites. He mentioned it on WNYC earlier this month, while also bringing up the NYPD Inspector General, a position created through City Council legislation co-sponsored by Council Members Williams and Brad Lander, de Blasio’s successor in the City Council from Park Slope, and passed over the veto of then-Mayor Michael Bloomberg (de Blasio was supportive of the legislation as public advocate at the time).

“We have so many elements of reform that some of these same advocates said, for years, would change everything,” de Blasio said on WNYC. “We’re doing it. And body cameras – in the course of this year, you’re going to see body cameras starting to be introduced on a large level in New York City. They will be expanded greatly from there.”

One problem that reformers point to in de Blasio’s argument is that the NYPD commissioner continues to possess discretion as to what extent he or she follows CCRB recommendations on officer punishment and that discretion almost always leads to a lesser penalty, often significantly so. Officers who use excessive force, for example, may be docked a few vacation days as opposed to being suspended without pay or worse. Advocates want “zero tolerance” for officers who violate the rights of civilians.

Citizens Union, a government reform organization, recently published a new set of recommendations for streamlining and improving police accountability, including changes to the process by which officers are disciplined. This was a follow up to a 2012 Citizens Union report that analyzed more than ten years of CCRB and NYPD data, raising significant questions about officer discipline -- it found that “The NYPD almost always did not follow CCRB recommendations to administer the most severe penalty despite the fact that the CCRB shows great discretion in accepting and investigating complaints against police officers.”

De Blasio, who has had a contentious relationship with the main union representing rank-and-file NYPD officers, has repeatedly deflected discussion of police accountability by focusing on the new training that officers are getting, arguing that it and other reforms are preventing bad actions by officers, and reducing negative interactions between officers and members of the public.

Along with tougher sanctions on officers who use excessive force or otherwise break protocol, Williams, CPR, and others want to see movement on the Right to Know Act and another bill, sponsored by Council Member Rory Lancman, to make police chokeholds illegal -- they are currently banned by NYPD policy, but critics say this has not deterred officers from using them, as seen in Garner’s death. (Even if made illegal, chokeholds, like any other use of force, would be allowable under law when an officer’s life is in danger.)

According to Monifa Bandele of Moms Rising, the Right to Know Act would build on the progress of the Community Safety Act. She said that children come home having had an interaction with police that they felt was unjustified or abusive, but can’t tell their parents who the officer was. “It’s hard to have accountability when you don’t know who you’ve interacted with,” she said, noting that adults often have the same issue. “Transparency, which is what the Right to Know Act is rooted in, is very key to get to accountability,” Bandele said, adding that officers seem to know that “there won’t be any consequences to violating the rights of New Yorkers.”

A spokesperson for de Blasio argued that “The mayor has delivered the farthest reaching criminal justice reforms of any mayor in the city’s history," but did not address questions around officer accountability and punishment for officers who violate rules and laws.

The de Blasio administration is currently being sued by Legal Aid Society and others over its refusal to release the discipline records of Officer Pantaleo, whose chokehold led to Eric Garner’s death. This, in combination with the change in policy around what had been a weekly posting of officer promotions and disciplinary action at NYPD headquarters has led to claims of backsliding on transparency and accountability.

“Without transparency about past disciplinary records when the CCRB finds an officer has committed misconduct, how can there be any real accountability?” asked Council Member Lander in a statement. “[I]f the NYPD can dismiss or downgrade the CCRB's charges secretly, and the public never knows about patterns of repeat offenders, how can communities be asked to trust the system? That’s why we are deeply distressed by the NYPD’s recent decision to suddenly reverse course on a decades-old practice of transparency, and why we’re joining the call today to release records pertaining to complaints against Officer Daniel Pantaleo.”

Pantaleo has been on modified duty since Garner’s death, but he continues to draw his NYPD salary, and was even found to be collecting significant overtime pay -- something that the NYPD quickly moved to address when Politico New York reported it. Overtime limits or not, modified duty is not enough for Pantaleo or other officers accused of wrongdoing, advocates for reform say.

Monifa Bandele said her teenage children are told the rules at school, but if they violate them, there are consequences. “Accountability is what we want from Bill de Blasio,” she said. “He’s done great things,” she added, noting universal pre-kindergarten and paid sick leave, “but what about policing -- this is an issue that Bill de Blasio ran on...it’s what separated him from the rest of the pack.”

It’s unclear at this point what “the pack” will look like as the mayor seeks re-election in 2017, but Bandele said “I don’t know” when asked if de Blasio has done enough good to warrant her support this time around. She indicated there’s still time for him to show real commitment to police reform by focusing on the transparency and accountability elements.

Congressional Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, a Brooklyn Democrat, has been an outspoken critic of de Blasio and is talked about as a potential mayoral candidate, though he has said he is not planning to run. At a September press conference outside NYPD headquarters, Jeffries said, “The administration said to us that they would be transparent as it relates to the issue of the police and the tension with the community. Instead, they’ve retreated, and declined to provide information on rogue officers who don’t deserve to wear the blue uniform any further. The de Blasio administration promised the people of the City of New York that we would receive meaningful police reform and instead we’ve gotten more of the same. That is shameful. And we will no longer tolerate it.”

Public opinion polls consistently show de Blasio with strong support among African-Americans, especially relative to white New Yorkers. Asked about this and whether people of color should support de Blasio, Council Member Williams said, “Well I think none of our support should be taken for granted so I would tell my constituents ‘don’t give anybody your support without asking hard questions and having them respond.’”

As for whether he plans to back de Blasio (seven of Williams’ colleagues recently announced their endorsements of the mayor for re-election), Williams said, “He’s the person I supported before, I think I am inclined to still support him, but not without hearing a lot of answers on police reform issues and housing issues, these are really affecting my constituents because I think there are glaring problems in what we want to accomplish in this city and what’s been done.”

“There has been movement,” Williams added, making sure to acknowledge progress. “We said we were going to push wholesale, systematic differences and changes and I don’t think that’s come about and people have a right to hear, well, ‘why hasn’t it and what’s going to be different in the next campaign?’ So all i’m going to tell my constituents: let’s wait and hear what those answers are.”

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by Ben Max, Gotham Gazette
     

Read more by this writer.

Note: Monifa and Lumumba Bandele are married. Separately, this reporter noticed the Lumumba Bandele tweet mentioned in the beginning of the story and came across Monifa Bandele at the press conference mentioned, later confirming the relationship.

Note: Gotham Gazette is an independent publication of Citizens Union Foundation, sister organization of Citizens Union.

Predictions! Experts Look Ahead to 2017 in New York Politics


de blasio mccray 2015 2016 new years eve

New Year’s Eve 2015/16 (Michael Appleton/Mayor’s Office)


As we usually do around this time of year, Gotham Gazette asked New York politicos to look into their crystal balls for predictions for the year ahead. Below you'll find insights from elected officials, journalists, advocates, analysts, and others who are tuned in to New York politics.

We know that 2017 will be interesting given it’s a city election year, and there’s always plenty of action in Albany, where the focus will be as the year begins. But what *exactly* will happen? Read below for some ideas.

Looking back at last year's predictions for this year, some of our forecasters did quite well (see Kathy Wylde, Alyssa Katz, Michael Benjamin, and others); while others missed the mark (see Jeff Smith, Luis Sepulveda, and others); and a few had mixed results (see Carol Kellerman and Doug Muzzio).

Wylde predicted that the City Council would pass the mayor’s mandatory inclusionary housing plan, and was right; Katz predicted that 421-a would flounder and that either Bill Bratton or Carmen Fariña would depart city government, and was right; and Benjamin predicted that neither Andrew Cuomo nor Bill de Blasio would be the Democrats’ vice presidential nominee, and was right. Meanwhile, Smith predicted that Keith Wright would succeed Charles Rangel; Assemblymember Sepulveda predicted ‘raise the age’ would become a reality; and Muzzio predicted that Michael Bloomberg would make another mayoral run - none of which came true. Muzzio was right, though, that Preet Bharara would keep the indictiments coming, just not for Gov. Cuomo.

See a new round of political predictions, these for 2017, below.

***Have something to add to the conversation? Tweet us @GothamGazette***And, be sure to read the latest reporting from Gotham Gazette; including our look back at The Top Ten Stories of 2016 in New York Politics and much more.***

PREDICTIONS for 2017 in NEW YORK POLITICS:

Carol Kellermann, executive director, Citizens Budget Commission
-The City misses the opportunity to save money on city infrastructure projects as the state legislature again does not extend design-build authority to NYC.
-The City finally acknowledges that taxi medallions aren’t worth what they used to be and removes $700 million+ in projected revenue from their sale from its financial plan.
-After spending millions to launch the program, the City closes down the IDNYC program because Trump-induced fears cause undocumented immigrants to cease participating.

Jonathan Bowles, executive director, Center for an Urban Future
-Frustration with overcrowded trains and mounting subway delays boils over, making the state of the transit system a big quality of life issue in the 2017 mayoral election.
-After several years of unprecedented economic growth, NYC’s economy starts to slide in the second half of the year, but too late to have a big impact on the election.
-CUNY becomes the latest flashpoint in the Cuomo/de Blasio feud, with the mayor pointing out that CUNY is a key launchpad for economic mobility in today’s economy and needs more state support.

Dr. Christina Greer, political science professor, Fordham University, and author of Black Ethnics
-Bill de Blasio will win reelection and continue as the 109th Mayor of NYC
-The Bdb-Cuomo beef now becomes a triangular set of fights with President Trump, his new role as president, and the expenditures incurred by NYC and NYS.
-The Second Ave subway line will continue to be a money pit, providing service at only three stations in upper Manhattan.

Michael Benjamin, editorial board, The New York Post
-Governor Andrew Cuomo finally learns the lesson his predecessors learned: the Assembly and Senate leaders are better at playing the long game than governors, especially those whose feet of clay get exposed.
-A dark horse candidate rides onto the NYC political scene to make Mayor de Blasio the one-term Mayor he has feared becoming.
-Carl Paladino finally gets the professional help he has long denied.

City Council Member Laurie Cumbo
More people will become engaged in social justice issues than ever before, in part fueled by a new generation of young activists.

City Council Member Carlos Menchaca
-New York City lives up to its history as our unique mix of patriotism and chutzpah lead the nation to triumph over dangerous demagoguery.
-After a first few chilly hours at an original Gilmore Girls marathon, Andrew and Bill finally realize the whole thing was just a silly misunderstanding.

City Council Member Helen Rosenthal
Bill de Blasio wins re-election by a landslide.

Robert George, editorial board, New York Daily News
-Indictments for de Blasio political staffers (more likely from Cy Vance’s grand jury than Preet Bharara’s) embolden de Blasio’s foes. Scott Stringer, Tish James and at least one dark horse candidate jump into the primary.
-It will be a surprisingly contested Republican mayoral primary.
-NYCLASS horse activists say “NEIGH” to supporting former ally Bill de Blasio.
-Donald Trump and HUD Secretary Ben Carson force reforms on NYCHA that housing advocates grudgingly admit were needed.
-With Cuomo looking at 2020, de Blasio and Trump find areas of common interest.

Dick Dadey, executive director, Citizens Union
-At the ballot box in November 2017, New Yorkers will vote to hold a state constitutional convention. After a year where citizen confidence in how our democracy functions dropped even further, in part shown in the movements behind Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, an unexpected citizen uprising will forcefully emerge in New York in 2017, manifesting itself as New Yorkers vote for holding the first citizen-called state convention since 1937.
-Buoyed by still more political corruption charges by U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara, the rising view that the state’s political institutions are not operating transparently or fairly enough will push New Yorkers to vote to take back our democracy, sending shockwaves across the state as broad democratic reform will now be possible.

Nicole Gelinas, Manhattan Institute
Come New Year's Eve 2017 into 2018, the horse carriages will continue to ply their trade in Central Park.

David Bloomfield, professor of education, Brooklyn College and CUNY Graduate Center
-The day after Mayor de Blasio's re-election, Chancellor Carmen Fariña resigns and, in a surprise move, is replaced by out-of-work ex-Secretary of Education John King who turns his back on his past advocacy of testing and charters to focus on desegregating New York City public schools.
-King hires Daily News reporter Ben Chapman as his top press aide after the News, in further retrenchment, joins the NY Post in devoting its entire education beat to reprinting press releases from Families for Excellent Schools.
-In Washington, the Republican-led Congress aided by renegade Democratic senators, severely cuts back on Title I aid to cities, creating massive out-migration of students to federally supported charter, private, and for profit cyber-schools.

Evan Siegfried, Republican strategist & author of GOP GPS
-Preet Bharara will finish out 2017 as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District, while hearing "pleas" to run for Governor and clean the cesspool of Albany.
-Mayor de Blasio runs on the slogan: 'De Blasio, the Mayor with the guts to kill the animals.'

Morgan Pehme, Effective NY
The People's Convention will pass!

Evan Thies, Democratic strategist & founder of Pythia public relations
-The 2017 mayoral election becomes about who hates de Blasio the most on the Republican side and who hates Trump the most on the Democratic side.
-Senator Gillibrand emerges as one of the Democrats' most vocal and effective voices against the Trump administration.
-Cuomo and de Blasio duel in Weehawken, N.J. Both miss, hitting and seriously wounding New York taxpayers. Lin-Manuel Miranda writes a play about it.

Gerald Benjamin, professor, SUNY New Paltz
Over vigorous opposition of public employee unions and incumbent state legislators (or perhaps because of this opposition), New Yorkers vote to call a constitutional convention.

John Kenny, publisher, NYTrue.com
-The New York State constitutional convention ballot question is approved.
-Paul Ryan is no longer the Speaker of the House.

Heath Brown, professor, City University of New York, John Jay College
Immigrant voters will emerge as an even more powerful force in the 2017 mayoral election than they have in the past. Organizations representing immigrants will feature prominently in shaping the agenda of the campaign especially on how New York City will react to new immigration policies coming from Washington. The candidate that can get ahead of this issue will win in 2017.

James Parrott, deputy director and chief economist, Fiscal Policy Institute
-As a hedge against likely reductions in federal aid coming to New York, Albany will extend the millionaire’s tax with some of the increased revenues being used to increase general purpose aid to localities (except for NYC, of course) for the first time in six years.
-Recognizing that the sky didn’t fall in the wake of the largest minimum wage increase in New York City in 60 years, many employers start to invest in raising the skills of their lowest-paid workers as they contemplate another increase at the end of 2017.
-After repeated stock market gyrations triggered by bizarre late-night tweets, Carl Icahn and the ex-Wall Streeters and generals on the White House staff ask Twitter’s Jack Dorsey to engineer a 5-minute delay for the President’s Twitter messages to allow Ivanka and Jared time to screen outgoing tweets.

Jeff Foreman, director of policy, Care for the Homeless
-The City Council will fund a right to counsel in housing court in the 2017-18 budget, jumpstarting a major national movement for right to counsel for tenants facing eviction.
-New York State will fund its commitment for supportive housing this year, with no strings (or MOUs) attached, and consider Assemblymember Andrew Hevesi's modernized rental subsidy plan.
-Advocates and others more fully begin to realize just how important and innovative NYC's "HomeStat" street outreach program is, as street homelessness begins to decline.
-New York advocates and policy-makers will be leaders in a burgeoning national effort that will activate the progressive movement in defense of health care, housing, education and food security measures for very low-income people and those in poverty and to protect people of color, immigrants, and others who feel under attack in the new year.

Theodore Hamm, professor and editor of Frederick Douglass in Brooklyn, which comes out in January.
-Carl Paladino will be named Director of Strategic Outreach by Trump's Alt-White House.
-The grandeur of the fourth new station of the 2nd Avenue subway will far exceed that of the first three.
-Bill de Blasio will spend lots of time at the Park Slope Y.

Alex Vitale, professor of sociology, Brooklyn College
-This is the year that de Blasio starts to look a lot like Bloomberg. Major fiscal pressure brought on by Trump-driven cuts to federal spending, declining real estate activity, and financial retrenchment on Wall Street drive de Blasio to clamp down on spending, creating disaffection among core constituencies. He will not use this as an opportunity for progressive tax reform, which could alleviate the need for austerity.
-De Blasio will also maintain his core allegiance to Broken Windows policing, undermining his support in African-American communities and possibly contributing to one or more high profile acts of police abuse.
-Little additional progress will be made on reducing the Rikers population or the number of warrants issued in connection with minor crimes and summonses.

WE’LL SEE WHICH OF THESE PREDICTIONS AND WHAT ELSE HAPPENS IN 2017 -- STAY WITH GOTHAM GAZETTE AS WE TAKE YOU THROUGH THE POLITICS OF THE NEW YEAR.

HAPPY NEW YEAR from Gotham Gazette!

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by Ben Max, Gotham Gazette
     

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Gotham Gazette: New York Voters Approve $4.2 Billion Environmental Bond Act
New York Voters Approve $4.2 Billion Environmental Bond Act
Gotham Gazette: 
New York City Voters Approve Racial Justice Ballot Measures
New York City Voters Approve Racial Justice Ballot Measures
Gotham Gazette: 
Housing Development in New York City Slows to a Crawl as Officials Debate Tax Incentives
Housing Development in New York City Slows to a Crawl as Officials Debate Tax Incentives
Gotham Gazette: 
City Council Examines Low Voter Turnout, Moving Local Elections to Even Years City Council Examines Low Voter Turnout, Moving Local Elections to Even Years