Gov. Cuomo cleans the subway (photo: Kevin P. Coughlin/Governor's Office)
This story was published in partnership with New York Focus, an independent, investigative news publication covering New York state and city politics.
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Every night since May 6, a small army of sanitation workers has mopped floors, wiped poles and turnstiles, and wielded electrostatic sprayers and ultraviolet lamps to disinfect New York City’s subway system.
The Metropolitan Transportation Authority expects to spend around $500 million on sanitization in response to the COVID-19 pandemic this year, and a similar amount next year, even as the authority faces the worst financial crisis in its history. The MTA announced on Wednesday that it may be forced to implement sweeping service cuts, including a 40% cut to subway and bus service, in order to save $858 million in 2021.
To facilitate the cleaning, the subway shuts down every night from 1 a.m. to 5 a.m. in the first planned shutdown in its 116-year history. The shutdown imposes heavy costs on late-night workers and on homeless New Yorkers, especially as the nights get colder.
The MTA and Governor Andrew Cuomo's office, which ordered the shutdown, say the disinfection program is a necessary public health precaution during a pandemic. But as a growing body of scientific evidence has shown that surface transmission of COVID-19 is extremely rare, transit advocates and MTA Board members have raised questions as to whether the cleaning is scientifically justified—and have received few answers.
'It’s Overkill. It’s Unnecessary.'
“You have to disinfect everything that a hand could touch on a subway car,” Cuomo said when he announced the program in April. “Every rail, every pole, and any place that droplets could touch. And then you have to disinfect the stations, the handrails.”
In the early days of the virus there was some scientific disagreement, but in the past several months, a scientific consensus has emerged that COVID-19 is rarely spread through surfaces. “Spread from touching surfaces is not thought to be a common way that COVID-19 spreads,” according to CDC guidance, “Infections occur mainly through exposure to respiratory droplets.”
“I don't really think that they have an appreciable effect on the transmission of Covid,” Dr. Dean Blumberg, an infectious disease expert at the University of California at Davis, told New York Focus, referring to the MTA’s disinfection efforts.
“I think it's overkill. It's unnecessary,” Dr. Emmanuel Goldman, a microbiologist at Rutgers New Jersey Medical School, said. “Normal routine hygiene and maintenance is more than adequate to control this virus on surfaces. You don't need to go to these extremes.”
“It's not his fault, he's not a scientist,” Goldman added, referring to Governor Cuomo. “What the MTA should probably do is speak to scientists—there are plenty of them around in New York.”
Asked whether the MTA is speaking with scientific experts to review the effectiveness of the program, an MTA spokesperson wrote in an email, “We certainly have reached out to experts, and we are working with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.”
But in subsequent emails and phone calls, the MTA declined to name any scientific expert or group it has consulted, other than the EPA on disinfectants. MTA spokespeople also declined to provide details on the cost of the program.
Governor Cuomo's did not respond to repeated inquiries, other than to refer New York Focus to the MTA press office.
“The subway system has never been cleaner or better disinfected in its entire 116-year history as a result of the overnight closure,” Ken Lovett, senior advisor to MTA Chair and CEO Pat Foye, said in a statement to New York Focus. “We make no apologies for doing everything we can to protect customer health and safety during this once-in-100-year public health crisis.”
'Why was the Board not consulted?'
Journalists aren’t the only ones having difficulty finding information about the disinfection program. Transit advocates and even members of the MTA’s Board—who are nominated by the governor, with input from the mayor and certain county executives, confirmed by the State Senate, and are responsible for the authority’s governance—say they have also been left in the dark.
The governor announced the nightly closure and cleaning procedures at a press conference on April 30. The news came as a surprise to Andrew Albert, an MTA Board member and the chair of the New York Transit Riders Council.
“I sent the Chairman an email saying that I was blindsided by this. ‘When was the decision made and why was the Board not consulted?’” Albert recounted.
Board members were not notified in advance, Albert said, adding, “Well, maybe the ones that are friends of the Governor were.”
“This is the same story that we've been telling for the past several years,” said Eric McClure, the executive director of the transportation advocacy group StreetsPAC. “Which is that it's Cuomo’s MTA.”
Lisa Daglian, the executive director of the Permanent Citizens Advisory Committee to the MTA, testified to the MTA Board in June to ask for data about the effectiveness of its cleaning initiatives and for metrics on when to restart nightly service. Since then, she said, she has followed up to press for information but has not received answers.
“What we don't know is: How long does it take to clean? How long does it take to safely remove the homeless? Is there a way to condense?” Daglian told New York Focus. “And what are the numbers of riders who really need the subways in those hours, who will not be able to get home?”
The MTA has said that 24-hour service will resume “when the pandemic is over.” Daglian and McClure have both pressed for more specifics, as have reporters at many news outlets. “They need to give us some metrics and or a deadline for when they plan to do that. It seems really open ended,” McClure said. “We’re concerned that there is not really a serious plan to return the subways to 24-hour service.”
'We will see people die this winter'
Two days before he announced the shutdown, Cuomo held up a Daily News photo of homeless New Yorkers sleeping on subways at a press conference and said, “That is disgusting, what is happening on those subway cars.”
Many transit and homeless advocates say that Cuomo’s primary motivation in shutting down the subways was to address a flurry of negative tabloid coverage of homeless New Yorkers “ruling the subway.”
The shutdown has posed extreme difficulties for homeless New Yorkers who used to sleep on the subways, and who will face even greater challenges as the nights get colder.
“The subways provide a place where folks can at least stay warm overnight by resting their heads against the subway wall or sometimes lying on a bench. And it's a place to be, a place to sleep,” said Craig Hughes, a social worker at the Safety Net Project of the Urban Justice Center. “We will see people die this winter because they are pushed into freezing temperatures.”
In the early weeks of the shutdown, NYPD and Homeless Services met homeless people at end of the line stations, but the program—started by Mayor de Blasio—only offered 281 homeless New Yorkers shelter by the end of May and lacked follow through, according to Hughes.
“People were just dumped onto the stairs of Bellevue hospital. They were put on buses with no heat while the temperature was below freezing.”
A street homeless outreach worker, whose employer is contracted by the city and asked not to be named, said that the shutdown would be especially difficult for her clients in a winter during which, because of the pandemic, “they don’t have hospital ERs or 24-hour McDonalds.”
Late-night workers are also facing challenges. “There are a lot of people whose shifts end at midnight and they need at least an hour and a half to two hours to get home. And they're not able to do that,” said Felicia Park-Rogers of the Tri-State Transportation Campaign.
And many more riders may face dramatic service cuts, some of which could be averted using money spent on cleaning. The “deep cleaning” regimen is projected to cost $500 million this year, though some of that money may be subject to reimbursement by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
In addition to the cleaning costs, the shutdown is costing the MTA money in lost ridership revenue and bus costs. “Trains are actually running anyway,” Albert said, referring to the empty trains the MTA continues to run throughout the night. “We have this very expensive additional bus system. So by running the trains, you might actually end up saving some money.”
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by Devin Wright of New York Focus
@NYSFocus
@GothamGazette
This story was published in partnership with New York Focus, an independent, investigative news publication covering New York state and city politics. Sign up for its newsletter here.
Senator Liz Krueger (photo: NY Senate)
November 18, 2020 - Max & Murphy Podcast: State Senator Liz Krueger on Next Steps in the Covid Fight
State Senator Liz Krueger joined the show to discuss the next steps in New York's fight against the coronavirus.
Listen to the conversation and let us know what you think -- we're on Twitter @TweetBenMax and @JarrettMurphy. You can listen to the show through the embedded audio below or download the episode wherever you get your podcasts, under "Max & Murphy," and listen to Max & Murphy live on Wednesdays at 5 p.m. on WBAI radio, 99.5FM or wbai.org.
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by Ben Max, Gotham Gazette
@tweetBenMax @GothamGazette
Students in CUNY class pre-pandemic (photo: CUNY)
The New York City Council’s Committee on Civil Service and Labor and Committee on Higher Education held a joint hearing Thursday about the City University of New York’s layoffs earlier this year.
The hearing, which was co-chaired by Council Members I. Daneek Miller and Inez Barron, who chair the two committees, respectively, focused on questions about why nearly 3,000 adjunct professors were laid off from CUNY colleges over the summer and if the university system did enough to prevent the layoffs from happening.
CUNY Senior Vice Chancellor Matthew Sapienza testified, saying that a 5.1% drop in enrollment and unexpected expenses as a result of the coronavirus pandemic put a strain on CUNY’s budget. After long-threatening such a move, Governor Cuomo also withheld $2 billion from CUNY’s budget last month, further reducing the amount of money available to the public university system that educates hundreds of thousands of students. Sapienza said the layoffs were necessary if CUNY was going to be able to continue to offer courses in the Fall 2020 semester.
“Since about 80% of CUNY’s costs relate to personnel, any series of budget cuts will necessarily involve position reductions,” he said. CUNY instituted a hiring freeze in April and has been working on reducing payroll costs by “consolidating the responsibilities of existing positions,” which he said has saved CUNY $33 million.
According to Sapienza, budget cuts, reduced enrollment and a decrease in state aid made it obvious that it would be “impractical and irresponsible to continue operations as normal.”
CUNY received $250 million from the federal government as part of the CARES Act earlier this year and has since given about $118 million of the funding to students who need it. Sapienza said that there are no official plans for the remaining $132 million as of right now, but that it will be used in CUNY’s budget for the current fiscal year (2021).
The layoffs happened six months after CUNY came to an agreement with the Professional Staff Congress (PSC-CUNY), the union that represents over 30,000 faculty and staff members. According to President Barbara Bowen, over half of the classes at CUNY are taught by adjunct professors.
Bowen said that CUNY could have used some of the CARES Act funding to pay adjunct professors rather than moving straight to layoffs.
“[Senior Vice Chancellor Sapienza] left out the provision in the law itself, not just guidance that says that to the extent practicable, institutions that receive CARES Act money should keep employees on payroll,” she said in her testimony.
The contract, which was ratified late last year, includes a continuation of a pilot program that would give some adjuncts three-year appointments, bringing them greater job stability because they wouldn’t be up for reappointment every year.
According to Senior Vice Chancellor Pamela Silverblatt, college presidents were put in charge of layoffs for their campuses. She said that CUNY Chancellor Felix V. Matos Rodríguez told presidents that they should prioritize keeping adjuncts that were recommended for three-year appointments and those that could lose their health insurance. Despite this, every single adjunct that was recommended for a three-year appointment at Medgar Evers College was laid off.
At times during the hearing, CUNY officials sidestepped questions or lacked the data necessary to answer Council Members Barron and Miller. The senior vice chancellors repeatedly pinned the layoffs as the responsibility of the presidents of each school under the CUNY system. Silverblatt said that layoffs most likely start as recommendations made by department chairs but wasn’t fully able to explain the protocols at each school.
When asked about the Medgar Evers College layoffs by Council Member Helen Rosenthal, Silverblatt repeated that college presidents were given guidance by the chancellor and that who was laid off was ultimately up to them.
“The presidents were told what to prioritize. They are entrusted to manage their schools,” she said.
Rosenthal criticized the CUNY representatives for not doing enough to prevent the layoffs, saying that there were other ways to save money without increasing unemployment.
“What you didn't tell us was all the steps you took first, that was the lowest hanging fruit prior to having to lay-off people. So in other words, CUNY added to the unemployment problem in New York City,” she said.
Bowen said that her union went to CUNY earlier this year with a list of demands for impact bargaining, which included no layoffs, but that CUNY has refused to negotiate with the union over that and class sizes, which have drastically increased due to layoffs.
“The impact of changes in class size is a mandatory subject of bargaining. And CUNY has sat at the bargaining table, bargaining Zoom with us and refused to bargain over that,” she said.
Bowen went on to say that reducing the number of people to teach classes is harmful to students and that increased class sizes puts students at a disadvantage.
“CUNY exploited that structure in a moment of danger for the whole institution, instead of holding on to those folks for our students,” she said. “What's more important for students than to keep their faculty in the classroom?”
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by Caroline Leddy, Gotham Gazette
@caroline_leddy @GothamGazette
Gov. Cuomo and Chief Judge Difiore (photo: governor's office)
Members of the New York State Assembly’s Judiciary Committee held a virtual hearing on Thursday to examine the impacts of a proposed $300 million cut to the state judiciary’s budget. The reduction, which represents a 10% cut to the court system’s $3 billion budget for the current fiscal year, was announced by the Office of Court Administration (OAC) in September in response to Governor Andrew Cuomo’s directive that all state entities reduce their budgets by 10% to mitigate the budgetary effects of economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The governor has held off on finalizing more sweeping budget cuts while lobbying for a major aid package from Washington, hopes that were buoyed by Joe Biden’s victory in the presidential election.
Witnesses at the hearing, which was led by Committee Char Jeffrey Dinowitz, a Bronx Democrat, warned that the proposed budget reduction could have far-reaching effects on the state’s court system, from exacerbating case backlogs to accelerating staffing shortages. Testimony was focused in particular on the decision by the OCA‘s administrative board not to approve 46 of the 49 older judges who applied for recertification for the upcoming calendar year. Judges who wish to serve on the bench beyond the state’s mandatory retirement age of 70 must apply to the OCA for recertification every two years until they reach 76. Judges who are not granted recertification must vacate their positions by December 31, which is three-quarters of the way through the current fiscal year.
Michael Regan, Chair of the New York City Bar Association’s Council on Judicial Administration, said the impending loss of the 46 judges will further hinder the courts’ ability to process the case backlog created by the pandemic. As of August, the state courts were facing a backlog of nearly 200,000 pre-pandemic cases.
“The loss of these 46 senior and experienced judges will have an immediate and significant impact on our court system,” said Regan. “As proceedings have already been delayed by the pandemic, caseloads and backlogs are rising, there is an increasing demand for access to the courts, and there is a need for an adequate number of experienced judges to handle the growing inventory of old and new cases.”
Representatives of the OCA declined to participate in the hearing, citing ongoing litigation over its decision not to recertify judges.
On November 5, five of the judges who were denied recertification filed a lawsuit against the OCA in Suffolk County State Supreme Court, alleging that the OCA’s “arbitrary and capricious” decision violated New York’s prohibition on age-based discrimination.
Assemblymember Dinowitz and other members of the committee expressed their frustration with the OCA’s absence.
“I am disappointed that OCA has chosen not to participate this morning in the hearting,” said Dinowitz in his opening remarks before the committee. “Time is of the essence on some of the issues, certainly concerning the termination of 46 judges, and waiting several weeks might make the issue moot. And as they say, justice delayed is justice denied.”
New York is currently facing a budget deficit of roughly $14.5 billion for the current fiscal year, with the state’s budget office expecting the deficit to expand to nearly $62 billion between now and 2024. If approved by Governor Cuomo, the proposed reduction would be the largest to the judiciary’s budget since the 2011-2012 fiscal year, when the judiciary lost $170 million from its budget amid a different state budget crisis.
In a letter announcing the planned cuts, Judge Marks said that the OCA’s decision not to recertify the 46 judges would trim $55 million from the judiciary’s expenditures. The court system has also implemented a hiring freeze, eliminated all “non-personal service” spending, and deferred all substantial payments in an effort to limit spending.
Critics of the OCA’s decision charged that the board’s choice not to recertify the judges was premature, given that the proposed budget reductions have not been finalized by the governor and that the state is still waiting to learn if it will receive fiscal aid from the U.S. Congress through a proposed federal stimulus package.
Witnesses also said that the OCA’s decision came at a particularly inopportune moment, as state courts struggle to navigate the legal and logistical difficulties created by the coronavirus pandemic.
“Reducing the number of judges on the bench and their staff should be [the administration’s] last resort when considering budget cuts,” said Hon. Charles C. Merrell, the president of Association of Justices of the Supreme Court of the State of New York. “The courts are overburdened especially with imposed delays and suspensions imposed by the pandemic. When [these restrictions] are lifted, the influx of cases is expected to be staggering. This is not a good time to slash the judiciary by 10%.”
Jesus Zeno, a representative of the Puerto Rican Bar Association, said that loss of the 46 judges, 17% of whom were people of color, also risks exacerbating racial and other demographic disparities on the bench. A study released in October by the Special Advisor on Equal Justice in the New York State Courts found that 58.1% of New York City judges are white, while only 31.7% of the city’s population identifies as white.
“Collectively, the loss of these seven to eight judges of color will diminish the strides that have been made to diversify the judicial positions in the New York State court system,” Zeno said. “As a result, the ripple effects of their loss will remain with us for many years to come.”
Zeno also warned that the budget reductions could create new difficulties for litigants and defendants, including delayed court dates, longer processing periods, and diminished access to state-sponsored legal services. According to Zeno, these difficulties would disproportionately affect low-income communities and people of color who have already been hit hardest by the pandemic.
“It’s going to be devastating to the minority community and to those people who do not have the means for adequate representation,” said Zeno. “Those cases may take longer because many of the individuals who appear in family court are pro se, and many of the defendants in tenant court are pro se, so those pro se litigants who do not have the skills or the means to defend a case, they’re going to put on the back burner.”
The budget reduction would also put a burden on the court system’s approximately 15,000 non-judicial employees, including court reporters, court officers, and judicial clerks, many of whom fear layoffs, pay reductions, or further staffing decreases.
“The reason the judicial system has not been crushed during the pandemic is because we, the court employees, are there,” said Eric Allen, President of the Association of Supreme Court Reporters Within the City of New York. “If layoffs were to occur, and employees are not there, Lady Justice would not only be blind, she would be rendered paralyzed."
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by Ian Ward for Gotham Gazette
@GothamGazette
Note: this article has been corrected to accurately note the demographics for New York City judges dound in the October report.
Gov. Cuomo with now-State Senator Andrew Gounardes in Oct. 2018 (photo: Cuomo/Flickr)
After flipping several State Senate seats in 2018 and taking control of the upper legislative chamber and therefore all of state government, Democrats sought to hold onto their wide majority this year even with a Republican president atop the ticket. They believed they might be able to win a supermajority in the chamber to match that of Democrats in the Assembly by picking up at least two additional Senate seats, if not more.
But as Senate Democrats faced tough races in a number of districts, including some they had won by narrow margins amid a “blue wave” two years ago, New York’s top Democrat seemed to take a relatively hands off approach and did what some believe is the bare minimum to help his party-mates defend or win new seats.
Though in 2018, when he was on top of the ticket seeking a third term, Governor Andrew Cuomo was active helping Democrats flip State Senate seats in swing districts from Brooklyn to Long Island to the Hudson Valley, this year he was absent but for a handful of virtual fundraising events and robocalls. Some Democrats believe he mostly prefers the split Legislature he had for his first two terms and very much wanted to avoid the possibility of veto-proof majorities in the two legislative houses.
As the vote-counting moves to absentee ballots, which are expected to significantly favor Democrats, there is a long list of State Senate races that haven’t been called. Overall, Democrats are confident that while they may lose a few seats back to Republicans they are also on the verge of picking up others and will wind up with a majority close but not quite as large as what they had coming into the election: 40 seats in the 63-seat chamber. Republicans believe they are narrowing the margin to 36-27, perhaps slimmer.
To get to that 40-seat majority, the 2018 elections saw several progressive Democrats eject more moderate members of the party in primaries while relatively moderate Democrats flipped Republican seats in the general. Cuomo was a significant presence in the latter, rallying with Democratic nominees in parts of the state where he remains popular but Republicans have had success and that he would need in his own reelection bid, which he went on to win by a wide margin.
The 2018 State Senate results set the stage, along with Cuomo’s win and continued Democratic dominance in the Assembly, for the passage of a long list of progressive priorities in 2019.
This year, despite Democrats’ hope that they could pick up as many as ten Senate seats, defend seven, and be competitive in a few others, it was bound to be a tough election. With President Donald Trump on the ballot, Republican turnout was undoubtedly going to be far higher than in 2018 even if Democrats voted in higher numbers too. And despite a fundraising and expenditure advantage for the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, there were millions being spent against them in targeted independent expenditures by outside entities, including billionaire Ron Lauder and law enforcement unions, who opposed criminal justice reforms enacted by the Democrat-led Legislature and governor. Lauder, a prominent donor to Cuomo, alone spent nearly $5 million while police unions spent more than $1 million in trying to inaccurately paint Democrats as anti-police and pro-crime.
To some observers, the governor made minimal effort to help Democrats on the receiving end of that spending and even less so in challenging Republican messaging statewide about a Democrat-controlled Legislature run amok. Many have even speculated that Lauder’s independent expenditures had the governor’s tacit approval. “That’s bullshit,” said Rich Azzopardi, a Cuomo spokesperson, in an email, when presented with those arguments.
Azzopardi insisted that the governor did his best to help Democrats’ chances. The governor endorsed a slate of candidates including Senators John Brooks, Todd Kaminsky, Monica Martinez, Anna Kaplan, Jim Gaughran, Kevin Thomas, and Pete Harckham, and nominees Sean Ryan and Laura Ahern. He recorded robocalls and made appearances at virtual fundraisers for Kaplan, Martinez, Gaughran, Thomas, and Harckham, and made additional virtual fundraising appearances for Senator Kaminsky and nominees Karen Smythe, Samra Brouk, and Jacqualine Berger, and signed a fundraising letter for nominee Jeremy Cooney.
“In what world, during a pandemic when you can't barnstorm and do rallies – if you look at that list of endorsements, robocalls and fundraisers – can they say he didn't do enough,” Azzopardi said in a subsequent phone interview. “It’s ridiculous.”
“The governor worked really hard to bring this majority in under his ticket in 2018,” Azzopardi added. “And we worked really hard to maintain it. Let all the votes be counted and let's see where it goes...We did a lot together. We did a lot of good for the state of New York. And we look forward to working with the Senate Democratic majority next year.”
While no one expected Cuomo to travel the state holding large rallies amid the coronavirus pandemic, the governor did no in-person campaign events. At the same time, Lieutenant Governor Kathy Hochul, Cuomo's running-mate and “partner in government,” did barnstorm the state, holding campaign appearances with several Democratic candidates in tough races -- including Brooklyn’s Andrew Gounardes, whom Cuomo campaigned with in 2018 as he flipped a Senate seat but is noticeably absent from the governor’s 2020 list. Cuomo made at least three appearances with Gounardes in October and November 2018, but none, whether virtual or in-person, in 2020. Hochul campaigned with Gounardes in Brooklyn the day before Election Day this year.
Overall, Cuomo opted against joining Democratic candidates in person to bring local and media attention to their campaigns and boost their messages.
A source in the State Democratic Party said the governor was “somewhat helpful” with his fundraisers and endorsements. “But it's a little bit like it's almost just for show,” the source said, noting that the State Democratic Party, which is controlled by Cuomo, could have done more.
“The state party could have done mailers, done TV...there could have been more money spent, more sort-of consolidated or coordinated messaging,” the source said, pointing out that while the state party gave massive contributions to specific candidates, they paled in comparison to the Lauder spending. “The money thing is the big thing. You have states around the country where the state party literally will drop millions of dollars into these local races,” said the source, who insisted on anonymity in order to speak freely.
While Cuomo had transferred campaign funds to some Democrats in 2018, he did not do so this cycle even though, as of July, he had more than $13 million in campaign cash. The State Democratic Party did transfer funds to candidates in the closing weeks of the election – $50,000 each to Thomas and Gaughran and $25,000 to Monica Martinez. None of those numbers account for the money Cuomo helped some candidates raise via his appearances at the virtual fundraisers.
Tom Staudter, a spokesperson for Harckham’s campaign, said the governor’s assistance was definitely helpful. “Governor Cuomo was a big help to Senator Harckham’s campaign,” he said. “In our district, there were only positives. His leadership during the pandemic was recognized as safeguarding and benefiting our residents and I know Senator Harckham is looking forward to partnering with the governor in the future.” Though Harckham trails by about 7,000 votes after in-person vote tallies, there are still 40,000 absentee ballots to count in the district, and Staudter expects that a major portion of those will be from Democrats.
In an interview on the Max & Murphy podcast prior to the election, State Democratic Party Chair Jay Jacobs made a similar argument to Azzopardi. “He's doing a lot. The governor’s been on fundraising zooms. He’s given me the request to raise money through the state party and he said use his name to raise money. I've done just that,” Jacobs said. “So he's been very helpful and he's been giving guidance and strategic advice. What he can't do is hold big rallies, like Trump does around the country, which I know he'd like to do and he's done in the past. This environment just won't permit it.”
Almost exclusively standing by while Democrats got relentlessly attacked by Republicans and their outside allies would seem counterintuitive for a Democratic governor. But Cuomo has never been one to easily share power or attention with members of his own party and has, in the past, appeared content to preside over a split Legislature where he can mostly call the shots without getting pulled too far to the left. He has oftentimes rebuffed progressive policies proposed by Democrats, slowly embracing them once they become too popular to oppose or appear especially advantageous politically. Prior to Democrats flipping the Senate, he triangulated with an erstwhile rogue offshoot of moderate Democrats who called themselves the Independent Democratic Conference (IDC), which helped Republicans control the legislative chamber and was seen by many as a Cuomo-backed effort.
A supermajority in the Senate, combined with that already in the Assembly, would allow Democrats stronger negotiating position on legislative and budget matters, and to override the governor’s veto if they pursue legislation that Cuomo rejected.
“Cuomo has always preferred working with Republicans than working with Democrats,” said Benjamin Rosenblatt, president of Tidal Wave Strategies, a political consulting firm. “We saw that when he helped gerrymander the State Senate map for Republicans. We saw that when he helped them with the IDC, with majorities over and over again. And we saw that this time when his billionaire friends bankrolled efforts to stop Democrats from getting a State Senate supermajority.”
Rosenblatt said Cuomo could have used his popularity, particularly in parts of the state such as Long Island, to help boost incumbent Democrats who are now uncertain about their victories. “That could have helped push Democrats over the line when they are facing these attacks against them, trying to connect them to [New York City Mayor] Bill de blasio, saying that they're anti-police,” he said.
Cuomo himself conceded on Thursday that the statewide Republican campaign had a strong impact, though he appeared to be speaking as a casual observer that had no role to play. “It shouldn't have been this close,” he said on WAMC radio with host Alan Chartock. “I believe the Republicans beat the Democrats on the messaging. I think they branded Democrats as anti-law and order. And that hurt Democrats. It was untrue.”
As Cuomo seemingly watched that messaging unfold across the state, including in districts where he had campaigned with Democrats in 2018, he was not moved to be more assertive in helping his party-mates beat back the focused, sustained barrage from Republicans.
Cuomo also pointed to how Republicans tied Democratic candidates to de Blasio, who has been widely unpopular in the state for years and who undertook a failed effort to flip the State Senate from Republican control in 2014 that led to an investigation by the Manhattan District Attorney over questionable fundraising tactics. No charges were filed. “They ran de Blasio’s picture all over the state. ‘They'll turn New York State into New York City, looting and crime and homelessness...That was their message and it resonated more than it should have,” said Cuomo, who has himself repeatedly painted New York City in such negative light during his press briefings over the past several months.
Asked about Cuomo’s comments at his daily news briefing on Thursday, de Blasio dismissed them. “I think whatever the Republicans did was pretty modest honestly,” he said, joking that in the future he would endorse Republicans to cause confusion.
Some political observers pointed out that many Republicans used images of Cuomo on their negative campaign literature.
Unlike Cuomo, Hochul kept a busy campaign schedule as election day neared. She appeared at events for State Senate incumbents Gounardes, Harckham, and Thomas, and candidates Berger, Brouk, Ryan, and John Mannion. Without the absentee ballot counts, only Brouk and Ryan are ahead in their races.
In 2018, on the other hand, Cuomo launched a concerted effort to help Democrats flip both the State Senate and the House of Representatives. With much fanfare, he appeared with State Senate seats on Long Island and together signed a nine-point pledge of policies they would pursue. He publicly endorsed Gounardes in similar fashion in Southern Brooklyn, with a slightly modified pledge more focused on New York City. Gounardes went on to replace Martin Golden, then the only Republican State Senator in the five boroughs outside of Staten Island, after winning by just 1,271 votes.
Gounardes is now at risk of losing his seat, running behind Republican challenger Vito Bruno by about 6,000 votes after the in-person tally, a deficit he has a shot at making up through absentee ballots that number more than 18,500.
In Southern Brooklyn, where Republicans did well against Democrats at the state and federal levels, though outcomes are still being determined through the absentee ballot count, Cuomo’s government actions ahead of the election may have hurt Democrats politically.
“In 2018, he came out here and campaigned with everybody and was actively trying to gain more seats in the Senate,” said a Democratic source in Southern Brooklyn who requested anonymity to speak freely. “And this time around, it was the opposite. There was no presence out here at all.” What made it worse, on top of the Lauder-funded ads, the source said, was Cuomo’s botched rollout of new lockdown restrictions in response to localized coronavirus infection spikes that angered constituents in those districts. “It was a lot of incoming,” the source said of Republican attacks. “We took on a lot of water and there was very little air support.”
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by Samar Khurshid, senior reporter, Gotham Gazette
@samarkhurshid @GothamGazette
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez & NYWFP Director Sochie Nnaemeka (photo: @AOC)
Many of New York’s smaller political parties face an uncertain future after they appear to have failed to garner enough votes to keep an automatic ballot line over the next two years under new rules that went into effect in this election cycle. Only the Working Families Party and the Conservative Party seem to have emerged unscathed, rallying voters to meet new thresholds through votes for their presidential and vice presidential nominees.
As part of the state budget, the Legislature and Governor Andrew Cuomo approved a new campaign finance system for New York with a public matching component and lower contribution limits, meant to curb the effects of wealthy donors and encourage small donations from everyday New Yorkers. Beginning in 2021, candidates will be able to opt in to the voluntary system.
But the new system was passed in combination with increased thresholds for political party ballot access that essentially only place a burden on minor parties like the Working Families, Green, Conservative, Libertarian, and Independence Parties. Under New York’s fusion voting system, those parties can cross-endorse candidates from the Democratic and Republican parties, and all the votes for the same candidates get tallied together. For instance, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were the Democratic presidential and vice presidential nominees but also appeared on the ballot on the Working Families Party line. Likewise, Trump and Pence were candidates on the Republican and Conservative Party lines.
Under the new ballot rules, minor parties have to win 2% of all votes cast or 130,000 votes, whichever is higher, every two years, in gubernatorial and presidential elections, in order to win a ballot line on which they can run candidates for all offices as they choose. And the votes must come at the top of the ticket, for the presidential/vice presidential nominees and the nominees for governor and lieutenant governor, which are run as pairs on the general election ballot.
Under previous rules, parties only required 50,000 votes in gubernatorial elections every four years. Unlike the broader campaign finance system and contribution limits that will be in place after the November 2022 general election, these party ballot thresholds went into effect for the presidential election this year -- a combination that appeared designed to hurt the Working Families Party and aid Governor Cuomo’s expected campaign for a fourth term.
Despite a daunting challenge, the Working Families Party marshaled immense resources, including hundreds of thousands of dollars in spending and endorsements from many major Democratic politicians both in New York and beyond, and far exceeded the needed votes.
Through the initial count of in-person ballots cast via early voting and on Election Day across the state, Biden and Harris received 287,374 votes on the Working Families Party line, about 4.42% of the nearly 6.5 million votes cast through Tuesday evening.
Trump and Pence got 249,094 votes on the Conservative Party line, or about 3.83% of the vote.
Both parties would seem to have crossed the barrier for automatic ballot access for the next two years. Based on past results, the Conservative Party was expected to more easily meet the threshold while the WFP was thought to be in some doubt, leading to its massive campaign.
The unofficial election night results don’t account for the 1.2 million absentee ballots cast statewide, which will not begin to be tallied until next week and will change the exact thresholds that the parties have to meet. Even if all those absentee ballots are validated, which is unlikely, the total vote will be about 7.7 million, setting the ballot access threshold at roughly 154,000 votes.
“New York’s progressive movement is stronger than ever. As ballots continue to be counted, we are confident that the New York Working Families Party will meet the ballot threshold and will remain on the ballot in New York,” said Sochie Nnaemeka, WFP state director, in a statement on Tuesday night. “This is a victory for our party and our movement.”
Other minor parties didn’t fare as well and it’s unlikely that uncounted absentee ballots will change their fate. The Green Party only received 22,829 votes for their presidential and vice presidential candidates, Howie Hawkins and Angela Nicole Walker, through unofficial election night tallies. The Libertarian Party, with Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy Cohen on their line, received 46,791 votes thus far. The Independence Party received 17,240 for Brock Pierce and Karla Ballard. The Serve America Movement (SAM) Party, which barely won a New York ballot line through its 2018 gubernatorial candidate, will also lose that line. The SAM Party did not appear on the ballot since it did not endorse a presidential candidate or run their own. When the new rules were first proposed, the SAM Party was among the minor parties that opposed them, viewing them as a direct threat to the state’s fusion voting system. The party is still pursuing a court challenge against the rules, arguing that they violate the party's First Amendment right.
The additional hurdles for the other minor parties -- namely the Green and Libertarian Parties, which do often run their own candidates in New York -- don’t stop there. Without automatic access, parties must collect enough petition signatures to get on the ballot, and the new system increased the number of required signatures from 15,000 to 45,000 for statewide candidates.
Meeting the vote threshold was a particular challenge this year since turnout reached a historic high in the state, as it did across the country. In 2018, if the threshold had been in place, only the Conservative Party would have managed to meet it. The party received 253,000 votes for its endorsed candidate, Republican Marc Molinaro. More than 6 million people voted that year; which meant the threshold was 130,000, since a 2% threshold of 122,000 votes would have been lower. In 2016, when 7.8 million New Yorkers voted in the presidential election, the threshold would have been even higher, at 156,000 votes. Again, only the Conservative Party surpassed it with 292,392 votes for Donald Trump.
Another test for the parties will be coming soon, with the 2022 election for Governor now less than two years away.
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by Samar Khurshid, senior reporter, Gotham Gazette
@samarkhurshid @GothamGazette
Note - this article has been updated with the total absentee ballot numbers and with a reference to a court challenge by the Serve America Movement party against the new ballot rules.
The New York State Senate chambers (photo: NY Senate)
Though hundreds of thousands of votes across New York are still to be counted and many races are not yet called, it appears certain that Democrats will retain the majority in the State Senate that they won two years ago, and by a fairly wide margin. But, Republicans seem poised to regain several seats in the chamber to narrow what has been an exceptionally wide 40-23 seat margin and keep Democrats from expanding it to what they hoped would be a veto-proof supermajority.
With a comfortable hold on the State Assembly and the governor’s office, Democrats will continue to control state government for at least the next two years.
But with the 2020 election heading toward counting of absentee and other paper ballots, a number of State Senate races remain up in the air.
Unofficial election night results showed Democrats winning at least 28 State Senate seats and Republicans winning 9. With about 1.2 million absentee ballots cast statewide in the election and with counting of those ballots set to only begin next week, it’s too early to tell how the rest of the 26 races will end up.
Early indications show that Republicans seem to have a lead in several competitive districts home to first-term Democratic senators, meaning the Democratic majority could be diminished by as many as five seats. Republican Senate Minority Leader Rob Ortt said Wednesday he believes his conference will have at least 27 seats when the dust settles.
Going into the election, Democrats held 40 seats and Republicans held 20 seats in the 63-seat Senate, while three seats most recently held by Republicans were left vacant based on retirements or resignations.
Democrats were hoping to pick up ten seats, particularly “open” seats where there had been Republican retirements and the districts held a Democratic voter enrollment advantage. Democrats were also on the defensive in several seats. It remains to be seen how all those districts will shake out.
“Despite a difficult night for many Democratic candidates throughout the state and nation, the Senate Democratic Conference comfortably retained our majority and will be welcoming a historic group of new upstate Democrats to the Senate,” said Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins, a Westchester Democrat who was just reelected, in a statement. “With the record high number of outstanding absentee ballots that are overwhelmingly Democratic, we will add even more victories to our majority as the vote counts continue. The Senate Democratic Majority will continue to lead New York State forward as we recover from this pandemic and economic crisis.”
In a Wednesday appearance on The Capitol Pressroom radio program, Deputy Majority leader Mike Gianaris, a Queens Democrat who also won reelection this week, expressed confidence that there are an “overwhelming” number of Democratic votes that were cast in absentee ballots. “Given our projections, we fully expected that some of these close races we were going to be behind on election night and ultimately win,” he said. “That's the posture we're in right now. We secured 36 seats comfortably so the majority is intact with a sizeable cushion. That number is going to grow because there are eight or so districts where we still believe we can overtake the Republicans.”
On the Republican side, Minority Leader Ortt, speaking to reporters on Wednesday morning, saw the early results as an indication that voters are disaffected with Democrats. “What you saw last night was a repudiation of one party rule,” he said, confident that the party will win up to 29 seats once all votes are counted.
Along with the Senate races, he also pointed to the party’s victory in some congressional seats held by Democrats. “That is a huge, huge signal, I think certainly to the leadership of the majority of the State Senate that the people of New York, of all political stripes, did not like what they saw the last two years,” Ortt said. “And they want to see something different. They want to see more balance, they want to see checks.”
In seven districts where Democrats had expressed confidence about picking up seats previously held by Republicans, the results are mixed so far. The in-person vote tallies do not account for significant numbers of absentee ballots, leaving a lot unknown for the time being. The State BOE provided a snapshot of absentee ballot numbers as of November 6, though absentee ballots were continuing to be delivered and those numbers were likely to change.
In District 1, Republican nominee Assemblymember Anthony Palumbo leads with 54.08%, or 74,289 votes, against Democrat Laura Ahearn, who has received 55,554 votes, about 40.44%. There were 32,485 absentee ballots returned by voters in the district. Of those, 15,508 were from Democratic voters, 7,322 from Republicans and 7,588 from independent voters.
In District 41, incumbent Republican Senator Sue Serino is ahead with 56.49%, or 68,907 votes, against Democrat Karen Smythe, who has 49,477 votes, about 40.56%. This is Smythe’s second time challenging Serino. In 2018, Serino won by only 688 votes. 30,712 voters have returned absentee ballots, including 16,088 Democratic voters, 5,580 Republican voters, and 7,166 independent voters.
In District 46, Republican Richard Amedure has received 66,784 votres, about 51.19%, compared to Democrat Michelle Hinchey, who has 58,613 votes, or 44.93% so far. There were 25,987 absentee ballots returned from 13,311 Democratic voters, 4,980 Republican voters, and 5,910 independent voters.
In District 50, Republican Angi Renna leads with 63,299 votes, about 51.45%, against Democrat John Mannion, who has 56,071 votes, about 45.57%. There are 37,149 absentee ballots left to be counted from 17,127 Democrats, 9,286 Republicans and 8,450 independents.
In District 55, Democrat Samra Brouk has the lead with 59,560 votes, about 49.88%, against Republican Chris Missick, who has received 54,504 votes, about 45.65%. Voters returned 42,443 absentee ballots in the district – 21,018 came from Democrats, 9,141 from Republicans and 8,982 from independents.
In District 56, Democrat Jeremy Cooney has a marginal lead, with 46,469 votes, about 47.16%, over Republican Mike Barry Jr., who is just behind with 45,587 votes, about 46.27 %. There were 32,578 absentee ballots returned from the district including 16,444 from Democrats, 7,017 from Republicans and 7,108 from independents.
In District 60, Democrat Sean Ryan has won 68,633 votes, about 54.32%, leading against Republican Joshua Mertzlufft, who is far behind with 52,391 votes, about 41.47%. Ryan may well keep his lead as the 26,729 absentee ballots in the district are counted. Most of the absentees, 15,347 to be exact, were from Democratic voters, while 5,076 were from Republicans and 4,517 were from independents.
In three districts, Democrats felt they had a solid chance of flipping Republicans seats but the current vote tallies, without the absentee counts, look promising for the GOP.
In District 4, incumbent Republican Phil Boyle has a strong lead with 69,199 votes, about 55.49%, against Democratic challenger former Assemblymember Christine Pellegrino, who has received 46,464 votes, about 37.26 %. There were 19,717 absentee ballots from the district, including from 9,495 Democrats, 4,747 Republicans and 4,363 independent voters.
In District 51, Republican Peter Oberacker has won 57.01%, or 64,014 votes, so far, while Democrat Jim Barber trails with 37.70%, or 42,336 votes. Voters returned 20,264 absentee ballots, including 9,020 Democrats, 5,742 Republicans and 4,281 independents.
In District 61, Republican Ed Rath already has 57.81%, or 64,887 votes, against Democrat Jacqualine Berger, who has received 36.81%, or 41,314 votes. Of the 31,628 absentee ballots returned in the district, 16,121 were from Democratic voters, 7,635 from Republicans and 5,987 from independents.
Republicans fielded competitive candidates in several races, particularly challenging first-time Democrats elected in 2018 in relatively moderate districts. Almost all of those challenges seem like they could yield seats.
In District 3, Republican challenger Alexis Weik leads with 53.01%, or 59,155 votes, against first-term incumbent Democratic Senator Monica Martinez, who has received 40.68%, or 45,388 votes so far. There were 20,012 absentee ballots returned, including 9,715 from Democrats, 4,693 from Republicans, and 4,416 from independents.
In District 5, Republican candidate Edmund Smyth is leading with 51.33%, or 69,015 votes, against incumbent Democrat Jim Gaughran, who has 41%, or 55,132 votes. There are plenty of absentees to count, however, and they favor Democrats. Of the 36,048 absentee ballots returned, 18,445 were from Democratic voters, 7,366 from Republicans and 8,645 from independents.
In District 6, incumbent Democratic State Senator Kevin Thomas is behind with 56,672 votes, or 43.03%, against Republican Dennis Dunne, who has 64,509 votes, about 48.99%. Voters returned 27,600 absentee ballots including 13,553 Democrats, 7,127 Republicans and 5,760 independents.
In District 22, Republican challenger Vito Bruno is in the lead with 40,621 votes, about 51.37%, against incumbent Democratic State Senator Andrew Gounardes, who has received 34,586 votes, about 43.73%. According to the New York City Board of Elections, 39,294 voters requested absentee ballots in the district, including 24,689 Democrats and 5,587 Republicans. Of those, a total of 18,524 ballots were returned by 11,622 Democrats and 2,651 Republicans. Another 7,785 independent voters also requested absentees and 3,714 returned them to the BOE.
In District 39, Democratic State Senator James Skoufis, a first-term incumbent, is currently ahead but with a margin that appears too early to call, though the senator did declare victory. He has received 50%, or 54,976 votes, so far, compared to Republican challenger Steve Brescia’s 44.23%, or 48,639 votes. There were 5,432 absentees returned – including 3,069 from Democrats, 927 from Republicans and 1,128 from independents.
In District 40, incumbent Democratic State Senator Pete Harckham, another first-term senator, is trailing with 45.48%, or 58,233 votes, against Republican challenger Rob Astorino, who has received 51.31%, or 65,686 votes, and was previously Westchester County Executive and the 2014 GOP nominee for governor. There were 31,622 absentee ballots returned in the district, including from 17,354 Democratic voters, 5,775 Republican voters and 7,000 independent voters.
In District 42, Republican Mike Martucci is in the lead with 52.65%, or 58,685 votes, against Democratic incumbent Jen Metzger, who has received 43.11%, or 48,054 votes. There are 12,700 absentee ballots left to be counted including 6,526 from Democrats, 3,141 from Republicans and 2,363 from independents.
Besides Stewart-Cousins and Gianaris, other incumbent Democrats who won reelection, many of them running uncontested, include John Brooks, James Sanders, John Liu, Jessica Ramos, Leroy Comrie, Toby Ann Stavisky, Simcha Felder, Julia Salazar, Roxanne Persaud, Zellnor Myrie, Kevin Parker, Diane Savino, Brian Kavanagh, Brad Hoylman, Liz Krueger, José Serrano, Brian Benjamin, Robert Jackson, Luis Sepúlveda, José Rivera, Alessandra Biaggi, Jamaal Bailey, Shelley Mayer, Neil Breslin, and Tim Kennedy.
The conference is set to have one newcomer in Jabari Brisport, an activist and teacher backed by the Working Families Party and the Democratic Socialists of America, who ran uncontested in the general election for the 25th State Senate District in Brooklyn. Brisport pulled off an upset in the primary, defeating Assemblymember Tremaine Wright, who was supported by the previous officeholder, the retiring Velmanette Montgomery, and a third candidate, Jason Salmon.
The nine incumbent Republicans who won their races include Minority Leader Ortt, and Senators Andrew Lanza, Joseph Griffo, Patty Ritchie, James Tedisco, Fred Akshar, Pamela Helming, George Borrello, and Patrick Gallivan.
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by Samar Khurshid, senior reporter, Gotham Gazette
@samarkhurshid @GothamGazette
Note - this article has been updated.
Note- this article has been updated with a snapshot of absentee ballot totals as of November 6. It has also been corrected to reflect accurate absentee ballot totals from Senate District 22.
Voters at the polls (photo: Michael Appleton/Mayor's Office)
UPDATE as of November 15: Voter Turnout in New York City Jumped 7.5% from 2016 to 2020
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Original article from November 3:
While final results and tallies are still unknown, it appears that the 2020 election has seen an increase in voter turnout in New York, as it has across the country.
As of November 1, the New York State Board of Elections reported there were 5.57 million registered voters in New York City, among 13.56 million across the state. It appears there will be more than 2.8 million votes cast in the city this general election, but the final tally will be heavily dependent upon how many absentee votes are cast and counted. Roughly 6,495,194 were cast in the presidential race across the state as of election night, according to the State Board of Elections.
In the 2016 presidential election, 2.76 million voters cast ballots in New York City -- roughly 56% of registered voters at the time -- out of a total 7.8 million votes cast statewide, a 62% turnout rate.
In the 2012 presidential election 2.47 million votes were cast in New York City, for a 53% turnout rate, out of 7.13 million votes across the state, good for 59% turnout. In 2008, when Barack Obama was first elected president, there were 2.6 million votes cast in New York City, a 57% turnout, out of 7.7 million votes cast across the state, or 64% turnout.
This year, it appears the city will likely surpass its 2016 vote total, though not necessarily its turnout rate. Vote counting is ongoing, particularly amid an unprecedented expansion of absentee voting, where eligibility was made universal due to the coronavirus.
After polls closed on Election Day, November 3, the city Board of Elections reported a total of 2,346,302 votes cast between the nine-day early voting period and Election Day in-person votes. That number includes more than 1.1 million New York City voters who cast ballots during the state’s first early voting period to occur during a general election for president.
Meanwhile, more than 1 million absentee ballots were requested in the city, and more than 550,000 had been returned by voters and received by the Board of Elections as of numbers released on Election Day, with another day for such ballots to be received in the mail. If most of those ballots are valid, the city could hit and surpass 2.8 million votes. Turnout of 2.8 million would be about 50% of the 5.57 million registered voters in the city (about 600,000 of whom have been deemed inactive due to a lack of recent participation in elections).
In-person voting totals across New York State hit 6,495,194 on election night, per the State Board of Elections, with hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots still to be counted. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris received 55.16% of the vote, with President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence receiving 42.8%. In New York City, Biden and Harris received roughly 73% of the presidential/vice presidential race votes, with Donald Trump and Mike Pence getting about 26%.
More than 287,338 of the votes across the state (170,000 in New York City alone) for Biden and Harris came on the Working Families Party ballot line, which means the party hit the new state threshold and will continue to have an automatic ballot line moving forward, for at least two more years. Trump and Pence received 249,078 of their votes across the state on the Conservative Party line, helping it to also hit the threshold to keep its line. The fate of other small political parties' ballot lines looks doomed.
New York City’s general election early voting numbers dwarfed early voting turnout in the June primaries -- when only 52,000 people took advantage of the option citywide -- and the roughly 60,000 people who cast early ballots last fall, when there was little on the ballot and early voting was first offered in New York.
But not all boroughs saw the same enthusiasm for early voting this year. Brooklyn saw a relatively high early turnout rate of about 22% of registered voters, while the Bronx and Queens showed the lowest participation with roughly 18%, each (Manhattan fell in between with 19% turnout). Staten Island was an early voting outlier with 30% of its registered voters participating. The disparity may have something to do with the availability of early voting poll sites. Staten Island had the fewest number of early polling locations but the lowest ratio of sites to registered voters: about 35,000 voters per location on average. That ratio was more than doubled in Manhattan and Queens, and the Bronx and Brooklyn each had ratios above 1 site per 50,000 voters.
But Staten Island’s participation rates are often higher than other boroughs and this year’s gap may also have had to do with hosting the only competitive congressional race in the city. In New York's 11th Congressional District, spanning all of Staten Island and some of Southern Brooklyn, incumbent Rep. Max Rose, a first-term Democrat, is facing off in a bitter battle with Republican Assemblymember Nicole Malliotakis. The challenger holds a large lead as of election night and declared victory, while Rose pointed to potentially 50,000 absentee votes still to be counted and did not concede.
Without any absentee ballots counted in the race, 236,008 votes had been tallied on election night, with Malliotakis taking 136,382 of them, good for almost 58% to Rose’s 42% and 99,224 votes.
Roughly 192,000 voters in the district went to the polls when Rose was elected in 2018, defeating incumbent GOP Rep. Dan Donovan, while 232,000 voters cast ballots in the race that gave Donovan the seat in the last presidential election.
A similar dynamic is playing out in State Senate District 22, where first-term incumbent Democrat Andrew Gounardes is being challenged by Republican Vito Bruno. In that district, which covers parts of southern Brooklyn, Gounardes beat then-long-time incumbent Marty Golden, a Republican, in a 2018 race with 66,000 total votes -- just three-quarters of the turnout in 2016, when Golden ran unopposed.
Without absentee ballots counted in that race, 75,293 votes had been tallied as of election night, and Bruno led with 40,621 votes, good for almost 54%, to Gounardes’ 34,586 votes, or almost 46%.
There are many more numbers to crunch in the coming days and weeks, especially as the absentee ballots are counted.
"There are going to be people who haven't voted before," said Jerry Skurnik, a veteran political consultant who runs the Prime New York firm, in an interview with Gotham Gazette. "I think there are two reasons for it. One is the interest in elections and politics because of Trump. And the fact that it's easier to vote this year...Being able to vote absentee without having to really be out of town, or being able to early vote without having to wait online today is a lot more convenient."
According to an analysis of voter history data from Prime New York, about a quarter of the roughly 850,000 primary voters in New York City had not voted in a previous primary over the last ten years. Prime New York will eventually conduct the same analysis of the general election.
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by Ben Max and Ethan Geringer-Sameth
@GothamGazette
2020 Voting (photo: Michael Appleton/Mayor's Office)
Results are not official, hundreds of thousands of ballots are still to be counted, and only some New York races can be called as of election night, but millions of votes cast by New Yorkers in the 2020 general election have provided some indication of winners of a number of races.
In-person voting totals across New York State hit 6,495,194 on election night, per the State Board of Elections, including 2,346,302 in New York City, with hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots still to be counted, including roughly 550,000 in New York City alone.
We don't know who won the presidential race, but Joe Biden and Kamala Harris won New York and its 29 electoral votes, at this point receiving 55.16% of the counted New York vote, with President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence receiving 42.8%. In New York City, Biden and Harris have received roughly 73% of the presidential/vice presidential race votes, with Trump and Pence getting about 26%. Like all other numbers, those figures are all but sure to change as the rest of the votes are counted. A Biden-Harris national popular vote win is all but certain, while an Electoral College win is appearing more and more likely as of Wednesday morning, as is Republicans holding on to the majority in the U.S. Senate and Democrats holding on to the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
As for a still very unofficial breakdown by borough, with many thousands of votes still to be counted, Biden-Harris are ahead of Trump-Pence in the four boroughs other than Staten Island, which was also the only borough Trump won in 2016. Biden was ahead of Trump 84%-14% in Manhattan; 82%-17% in the Bronx; 73.6%-25% in Brooklyn; 68.5%-30% in Queens. Trump was ahead 61.3%-37.4% on Staten Island.
More than 287,338 of the votes across the state (170,000 in New York City alone) for Biden and Harris came on the Working Families Party ballot line, which means the party hit the new state threshold and will continue to have an automatic ballot line moving forward, for at least two more years. Trump and Pence received 249,078 of their votes across the state on the Conservative Party line, helping it to also hit the threshold to keep its ballot line. The fate of other small political parties' ballot lines looks doomed, though they can potentially win them back in the future via gubernatorial or presidential elections.
In New York's 11th Congressional District, spanning all of Staten Island and some of Southern Brooklyn, incumbent Rep. Max Rose, a first-term Democrat, has been locked in a bitter battle with Republican Assemblymember Nicole Malliotakis. The challenger holds a large lead as of election night and declared victory, while Rose pointed to potentially 50,000 absentee votes still to be counted and did not concede.
Without any absentee ballots counted in the race, 236,008 votes had been tallied on election night, with Malliotakis taking 136,382 of them, good for almost 58% to Rose’s 42% and 99,224 votes.
A similar dynamic is playing out in the overlapping 22nd State Senate of Southern Brooklyn, where first-term incumbent Democrat Andrew Gounardes is being challenged by Republican Vito Bruno. Without absentee ballots counted, 75,293 votes had been tallied as of election night, and Bruno led with 40,621 votes, good for almost 54%, to Gounardes’ 34,586 votes, or almost 46%. The city Board of Elections has already received 12,744 absentee ballots in the district, with more likely coming in, and they skew heavily toward Democratic voters, according to figures provided by the BOE. Whether those Democratic voters, among others, fall heavily enough toward Gounardes is still to be seen.
In the overlapping 46th Assembly District, Democratic Assemblymember Mathylde Frontus is in trouble against Republican challenger Mark Szuszkiewicz. With thousands of absentee votes to be counted, Frontus has received 15,030 votes (45.66%) to Szuszkiewicz’s 17,852 votes (54.2%).
Gounardes’ race is part of the battle for control of the State Senate, which Democrats flipped in 2018 and took a wide margin that Republicans were hoping to chip away at this year to set themselves up to retake the chamber in 2022. The GOP appears to be on the verge of making up some ground, though there are many votes still to be counted and the math of the seats is somewhat tricky.
While Gounardes and several other Democratic incumbents in the Senate are in some trouble, Democrats are on the verge of flipping a few seats that are or were most recently held by Republicans. The 22nd District is the only competitive State Senate race in New York City, while several races on Long Island and north of the five boroughs are highly competitive. (A full rundown of competitive State Senate races will be available later on Wednesday.)
As is always the case, Long Island -- especially Nassau County -- is making for one of the most interesting battleground areas in the state. As he did four years ago, Trump is winning Suffolk County by a wide margin, but the presidential vote in Nassau is close -- Hillary Clinton narrowly won Nassau County in 2016. As of Wednesday morning, Trump had won 49.56% of the vote in Nassau to Biden's 48.46%.
One to several State Senate seats that Democrats flipped on the Island in 2018 may flip back, but absentee votes must be counted and will impact those races as well as House contests and the presidential tally.
While Democrats are not in any risk of losing the Assembly majority or needing to worry about the margin shrinking much, Frontus is not the only Democratic incumbent in some trouble, and Democrats also struggled in multiple open seats without an incumbent running. Other Democrats who could be knocked off include Edward Braunstein of Queens and Michael Cusick of Staten Island, though both will probably prevail once absentee ballots are counted. Republicans also appear set to keep Malliotakis' Assembly seat in a district Democrats had begun to have high hopes for.
Democratic Assemblymember Rebecca Seawright of the Upper East Side does appear on the verge of holding onto her seat against a spirited Republican challenge complicated by the fact that Seawright’s campaign made errors keeping her from the Democratic Party ballot line. And Phara Souffrant Forrest, who beat Assemblymember Walter Mosley in the June Democratic primary, again prevailed over Mosley, who was on the Working Families Party ballot line.
Less competitive races that can and have been called include:
-Democratic City Council Member Donovan Richards winning the race to be the next Queens Borough President.
-Democrat Darma Diaz was uncontested in the general election and will become the next City Council Member in Brooklyn's 37th District, a seat that has been vacant since Rafael Espinal resigned for a private sector job.
-Democrat Jabari Brisport winning the 25th State Senate District in Brooklyn to replace retiring Senator Velmanette Montgomery.
-Democratic City Council Member Ritchie Torres winning the 15th Congressional District seat to replace retiring Rep. Jose Serrano.
-Jamaal Bowman winning the 16th Congressional District in the Bronx and Westchester, aftering having defeated Rep. Eliot Engel in the Democrartic primary.
-Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez winning her first reelection bid in the 14th Congressional District in the Bronx and Queens.
-New York City Congressional Reps. Gregory Meeks, Grace Meng, Nydia Velazquez, Hakeem Jeffries, Yvette Clarke, Jerry Nadler, Carolyn Maloney, and Adriano Espaillat, all Democrats, are all coasting to reelection.
Congressional Races Outside New York City
-It appears Republicans will hold the 1st and 2nd Congressional District seats on Long Island, via Rep. Lee Zeldin and nominee Andrew Garbarino, respectively.
-Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi is trailing in the 3rd and Democratic Rep. Kathleen Rice is leading in the 4th, with absentee ballots still to count.
-Democrat Mondaire Jones will win the 17th Congressional District seat.
-Democratic Reps. Sean Patrick Maloney and Antonio Delgado are in close races in the 18th and 19th Districts, respectively, as absentee ballot counting is set to begin.
-Democratic Rep. Paul Tonko has a commanding lead in the 20th Congressional District.
-Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik has a commanding lead in the 21st Congressional District.
-Democratic Rep. Anthony Brandisi appears to be in trouble against former Republican Rep. Claudia Tenney, whom he unseated in 2018 in the 22nd Congressional District.
-Republican Reps. Tom Reed, John Katko, and Chris Jacobs appear headed toward reelection in the 23rd, 24th, and 27th Congressional Districts.
-Democratic Reps. Joseph Morelle and Brian Higgins appear headed toward reelection in the 25th and 26th Congressional Districts.
More detailed results will be available in the coming days and weeks.
Assemblymember Nicole Malliotakis, left, & Rep. Max Rose face off in NY-11
Voting in the 2020 general election is set to come to a conclusion on Tuesday, November 3, Election Day. The full, official results won't be known for weeks.
The eyes of the world are on the presidential race between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden, and it's unclear when a winner may be declared.
Though it's unlikely Trump can pull off an upset and beat Biden in New York, voters here have been going to the polls in large numbers, just like across the country, with 2020 expected to see modern record voter turnout. How exactly the presidential race shakes out in New York is among many things to watch as we count the votes.
1. Voter Turnout
Voter turnout, both in person and by mail, is likely to reach historic highs in the 2020 general election.
There are 5.3 million voters registered in New York City and just under 13 million registered across New York State, as of February 2020. (Many thousands more registered between then and the October deadline, but those numbers are not yet available.)
In the 2016 presidential election, only about 64,000 absentee ballots were cast in New York City. This year, eligibility for absentee balloting has been expanded to all registered voters due to the coronavirus pandemic, a change that led to a huge surge in such voting in the June primaries. As of October 20 of this year, over 1 million absentee ballots for the general election had been processed in New York City, according to the city Board of Elections (BOE). The board will accept absentee ballots that are put in the mail or dropped off by Election Day.
The nine-day early voting period, October 24-November 1, has yielded over 1.1 million in-person votes cast in New York City alone, a little more than 21% of registered voters in the city (using the February number). This is the first presidential general election with either universal absentee voting or early voting in New York. (In 2019, the first year of early voting when only a handful of local races were on the ballot, only about 60,000 people citywide and 256,000 statewide voted at an early voting site.)
While many New Yorkers are taking advantage of voting by mail or early voting, Election Day is still expected to see a large surge of voters, with many expecting New York turnout, like that across the country, to surpass recent election cycles.
In the 2016 presidential election, 2.76 million voters cast ballots in New York City (roughly 56% of registered voters) out of a total 7.8 million votes cast statewide (a 62% turnout rate).
In the 2012 presidential election 2.47 million votes were cast in New York City (a 53% turnout rate), out of 7.13 million votes across the state (59% turnout). In 2008, when Barack Obama was first elected president, there were 2.6 million votes cast in New York City (57% turnout), of 7.7 million votes cast across the state (64% turnout).
2. New York City Tries to Run a Smoother Election with Expanded Options
It has already been another election marred by poor execution by the New York City Board of Elections. What Election Day itself will bring is yet to be seen. While some changes and challenges have been brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, some problems this year look like those made by the Board of Elections and its vendors in prior years.
There are many outstanding questions about what will unfold on Election Day and in the counting of ballots thereafter.
The 2020 elections have seen an unprecedented level of absentee voting, the result of the state expanding eligibility to all registered voters as part of the larger effort to combat the spread of COVID-19. The high volume and the amount of time it takes to receive and verify mail-in ballots means that many races may not be officially called until weeks after polls close. The New York City Board of Elections has predicted it will complete the ballot canvassing process by November 24, four days before the statutory deadline. The Electoral College is set to formally elect the president on December 14.
Lines at the polls will be long this year, not only because of high turnout, but because of social distancing. The city Board of Elections says it has hired 4,800 additional poll site workers who will be assigned specifically to line management. The board has also mailed "Fast Pass Tags" to all registered voters that have scannable barcodes for expedited and "contactless" poll site check-in. Voters may (but are not required to) bring them to their early voting or Election Day poll location, where electronic poll books are also now in use, having been first instituted last year among a wave of voting and election reforms.
Completed absentee ballots can also be dropped off during open hours at early voting and Election Day polling locations and at BOE borough offices. There is no check-in required for using one of the dropboxes.
The city BOE opened 88 early voting sites this fall, up from 79 for the June primaries and 61 during the general election last year, when early voting began in New York. That number, which became 89 after the threat of a lawsuit by a Manhattan Assembly member, has proven too small, however, given the large turnout, adding to the list of issues with Board of Elections planning and administration.
After having reduced the total number of early voting hours by ten, from 74 to 64 hours, according to Vote Early New York, a non-profit advocacy group, the BOE responded to large turnout on the first several days by adding additional early voting hours. In one Upper East Side district, following days of long lines and a planned court challenge from Assemblymember Rebecca Seawright, herself on the ballot this year, the BOE opened up an alternative early voting site. The sites were open for nine days from October 24 through November 1.
New York City is the only jurisdiction in the state that assigns voters to a specific early voting site, rather than having universal centers where any registered voter can go. Voting rights advocates have pushed the city to adopt borough-wide and citywide early voting but administrators have said memory limitations on the machines it uses make it impossible to store the ballots of every election district.
On top of the new absentee voting element this year, election administrators are operating under a brand new state requirement to notify voters when their mail-in ballots are being rejected on certain technical errors and provide them a channel to correct the mistake.
The new mandate, signed into law in August, applies to missing or incorrect signatures on the inner "oath" envelope and to ballots that were returned without the oath envelope entirely. When there is a “cure” eligible error, the Board of Elections is required to send notices to all mailing and email addresses on file for the voter at hand, and must make attempts by phone wherever possible to reach each voter. The notice will include a form through which voters can "cure" the mistake and return to the BOE to be reviewed and counted. Pursuant to an executive order signed by Governor Andrew Cuomo, administrators are allowed to review ballot envelopes for defects as soon as they are received, but state law requires they remain sealed with the ballot uncounted until seven days after Election Day.
There are always unforeseen mishaps that impact the voting experience leading up to and on Election Day in New York City. In September, a vendor printing error led as many as 100,000 Brooklynites to receive another voter's oath envelope, which would render the ballot inside invalid if cast. The BOE says it has contacted all impacted voters and has provided new, correct ballots and envelopes.
Between a fifth and a quarter of absentee ballots are rejected every year on technicalities, a majority of which are because of missing signatures. The state has redesigned the oath envelope to emphasize with a prominent red 'X' where a signature is required and passed the ‘curing’ law.
3. Presidential Election Results Across New York City and State
If the last presidential election result is any indication, Joe Biden will handily win New York and pick up its 29 electoral votes. In 2016, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton won 4.5 million votes across the state, compared to Trump’s 2.8 million. In New York City, the Clinton-Kaine ticket beat the Trump-Pence ticket overwhelmingly, garnering 2.16 million votes to 494,549 votes.
Trump, however, won 45 New York counties to Clinton’s 17, particularly as he was successful in less-populated rural and suburban areas. He did win both Staten Island (Richmond County) and Suffolk County, one of the two on Long Island, along with Nassau, where Clinton won fairly narrowly.
In New York City, there are a few pockets of Republican strength beyond much of Staten Island. Trump won parts of Queens that are home to white ethnic voters and a significant swathe of Brooklyn where there is a concentration of Orthodox Jewish communities.
While Trump did well in some suburbs of the city, many parts of the region moved towards Democrats in the 2018 elections, when Trump was not on the ballot himself but many voters appeared motivated by his initial nearly two years on the job. Case in point, in the 2018 state elections, Democrats won several State Senate seats in districts long held by Republicans, some in extremely tight races, including one in Southern Brooklyn’s 22nd State Senate District. The same was true in Congressional races in the city and beyond, especially New York’s 11th Congressional District, where Democratic wins helped the party take over the House of Representatives. It remains to be seen whether Trump can help those Republicans make a comeback or if Democrats will retain their hold.
Though Republicans are hoping that Trump’s presence at the top of the ticket will help them win back those seats in more conservative and moderate districts in rural and suburban areas outside New York City, Democrats are perhaps more confident that their base will turn out in greater numbers and they will win independents by large margins.
4. Can Minor Political Parties Keep Their Ballot Lines?
The presidential election is likely to have major consequences for the state’s minor political parties and what the New York ballot looks like in 2021 and beyond. New York’s fusion voting system, which allows candidates to run on several party lines on the ballot and accumulate votes, is not itself at risk of ending, but there are new thresholds parties must meet to keep an automatic ballot line on which to nominate candidates for offices all across the state.
The system gives minor parties like the Working Families, Conservative, Independence, Green, and Libertarian parties the ability to cross-endorse a candidate also backed by the Democratic or Republican Party to run on their line. The arrangement is mutually beneficial – candidates get allies that can help them expand their voter base and the parties garner influence with candidates and office-holders.
This year’s state budget included legislation creating a new campaign finance system for state elections, based on the recommendations of a state-created commission, while also creating new hurdles for minor parties that could place many of them in a tenuous position heading into the election.
Starting this year and continuing every two years, political parties now have to meet new, higher thresholds to automatically qualify for a ballot line. Where previously they only had to win 50,000 votes every four years in a gubernatorial election, they now have to win 2% of votes cast or 130,000 votes, whichever is greater, every two years, in a gubernatorial or presidential election. Based on the 2018 election, none of the state’s minor parties would have met that threshold except the Conservative Party. The Working Families Party is in the midst of a massive effort to keep its line.
[Read: New York's Smaller Political Parties Must Quickly Meet New Ballot Thresholds]
5. Max Rose Tries to Keep the Congressional Seat He Flipped in 2018
In New York’s 11th Congressional District, first-term Democrat Max Rose is in a pitched battle for his seat against Republican Assemblymember Nicole Malliotakis. A recent NBC 4 New York / Marist Poll found that Malliotakis held a slight lead in the race, with 48% of likely voters to Rose’s 46%.
The district, which has swung several times between the two parties, covers all of Staten Island and parts of Southern Brooklyn along the waterfront. It has been a target for Republicans ever since Rose won it in 2018, defeating incumbent Dan Donovan, the Republican former Staten Island District Attorney.
Rose, a military veteran, is a moderate, center-left Democrat who has often sought to distance himself from the party’s more progressive policies and members. As he runs for reelection, he has repeatedly criticized Mayor Bill de Blasio, a two-term Democrat, for his perceived failures in running the city and has at times even expressed support for President Trump, though Rose did vote to impeach Trump.
Malliotakis represents the Assembly in a district that covers most of the east shore of Staten Island and a small part of Southern Brooklyn. She previously ran for mayor of New York City in 2017, but only won 27.1% of the vote, losing handily to de Blasio who won 65.1%. She did, however, win Staten Island that year with 70% to de Blasio’s 25.3%.
The seat is rated one of the most competitive across the country, and while it helped Democrats flip the House of Representatives in 2018, the party does not appear to need it to keep the House after this election. But whether it is part of Democrats keeping and expanding their majority or Republicans narrowing it or possibly flipping control back is yet to be seen. The seat had been Republicans’ only congressional office in New York City until Rose took it.
6. Other Congressional Races in New York and Control of the House
In the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats flipped control of the 435-seat House of Representatives, with a net gain of 40 seats. In New York, the party flipped three seats – Max Rose defeated Dan Donovan in the 11th District, Antonio Delgado prevailed over John Faso in the 19th District, and Anthony Brindisi was victorious against Claudia Tenney in the 22nd District.
Delgado looks to be headed to reelection, facing first-time Republican candidate Kyle Van De Water, an Army veteran and attorney, in a district slightly north of New York City. Further upstate, Brindisi is again facing Tenney this year as she seeks to reclaim the position. Though Tenney is hoping to be boosted by Trump’s presence on the top of the ticket, a recent Siena College poll showed that Brindisi has a comfortable nine-point lead in the race. Rose is the most vulnerable of the three Democrats, as he faces a tough fight against Malliotakis in a pro-Trump district.
The state will also send some new Democrats to the House, candidates finalizing their journeys after tough primaries but easy general elections given teh overwhelmingly Democratic districts they’re running in. In the 15th District in the Bronx, Ritchie Torres, currently a City Council member, won the Democratic nomination from a crowded field vying to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Jose Serrano. In the 16th District, including parts of the Bronx and Westchester, progressive Democrat Jamaal Bowman won the June primary to unseat Rep. Eliot Engel, who had been in office for 16 terms. Both Torres and Bowman are all but assured to win the general election and head to Congress, as is another Democrat, Mondaire Jones, who won a tough primary north of the city to replace retiring Rep. Nita Lowey.
7. Andrew Gounardes Tries to Keep the State Senate Seat He Flipped in 2018
Democrat Andrew Gounardes flipped Brooklyn’s State Senate District 22 in 2018, defeating longtime incumbent Marty Golden, one of the last remaining Republicans in the state Legislature representing New York City.
The district, situated in Southern Brooklyn, includes some of the more moderate parts of the city. Though it has more than twice as many registered Democratic voters as Republicans, Gounardes nonetheless won in 2018 by a narrow margin. This year, he’s being challenged by Vito Bruno, a former nightclub owner and president of the Edmund G. Seergy Republican Club.
Democrats have expressed confidence they can hold the seat given the registration advantage and Bruno’s relative lack of name recognition as well as Gounardes’ first-term accomplishments, while Republicans think Trump’s presence at the top of the ballot can help Bruno win, along with controversial criminal justice reforms passed by Democrats in the State Legislature.
[Read: Democrats Flipped a Brooklyn State Senate Seat in 2018; Is It In Play In 2020?]
8. Other State Senate Races Outside the City and Control of the Senate
After winning control of the State Senate in 2018 and working with their party-mates in the Assembly and governor’s office to pass a long list of liberal legislation, Democrats are now looking at the possibility of capturing a supermajority in the chamber. They currently hold 40 out of 63 seats; Republicans hold 20 while three are vacant from Republican resignations. Several Republicans have also announced their retirements at the end of the year, creating a slew of “open” seats that are being hotly contested.
Since 2018, Trump has grown increasingly unpopular in the state, Democratic voter enrollment has continued to increase, and the party has vastly outraised and outspent the GOP in state Senate campaign funds. Democrats are hoping that turnout will be in their favor again this year and believe they can pick up as many as ten seats; they only need a net gain of two for a supermajority, which would allow the Senate Democratic majority to work with the supermajority of Democrats in the Assembly to potentially override gubernatorial vetoes.
Republicans, however, maintain that they will hold on to all their seats and that they will be able to appeal to moderate Democrats and conservatives to unseat several first-term Democrats who have pushed the Legislature and the state overall towards the left.
Brooklyn’s 25th State Senate District will also see new representation from Jabari Brisport, who won the June primary over Assemblymember Tremaine Wright and others to fill a vacancy being left by the retirement of State Senator Velmanette Montgomery. Brisport, a democratic socialist, is running unopposed in the general election.
9. Other Races of Note in the City
Queens is set to get a new Borough President and it’s all but certain to be Democratic City Council Member Donovan Richards. In the June primary, Richards emerged victorious in a crowded field to claim the nomination; the seat has been held on an interim basis by BP Sharon Lee since former Borough President Melinda Katz resigned at the start of the year to become the borough’s district attorney.
Richards’ most prominent opponent is Republican nominee Joann Ariola, chair of the Queens County Republican Party. But Democrats hold a massive voter enrollment advantage and the borough has not elected a Republican as borough president since the 1950s.
[Read: Donovan Richards Lays Out His Vision As Likely Next Queens Borough President]
In Assembly District 76 on the Upper East Side of Manhattan, incumbent Democrat Rebecca Seawright is running for reelection. But Seawright’s bid is only noteworthy because she is running on the self-created “Rise and Unite" party line that she had to create after she was kicked off the Demorcatic and Working Families Party ballot lines after failing to file the proper ballot paperwork. She is being challenged by Republican Louis Puliafito in a race where the GOP is hoping to eek out a win based on there being no Democratic nominee on the ballot and the fact that the Upper East Side is still home to a sizable group of Republicans.
In Assembly District 64, Democrats may have a chance to flip a Republican-held seat as the current incumbent is Nicole Malliotakis, who is not running for reelection as she runs for Congress. Democrat Brandon Patterson, former deputy chief of staff to state Senator Diane Savino, and Republican Michael Tannousis, a former assistant district attorney in the Bronx and Staten Island DAs offices, are running against each other.
In Assembly District 57, incumbent Democrat Walter Mosley lost the Democratic primary to Phara Souffrant Forrest, a nurse and first-time candidate who was endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America. After losing the primary, Mosley is running on the Working Families Party line, having received their endorsement as well. But the WFP has asked him to stand down and urged their members to vote for Forrest instead, giving her their endorsement after the primary.
There are also some other notable Assembly races in the city, largely pro-forma finalizing of contested June primaries through the general election.
In Assembly District 31 in Queens, Khaleel Anderson, who is just 24 years old, came out on top in a crowded Democratic primary to win the nomination. The race was for an open seat left vacant after Assemblymember Michele Titus was elected as a civil court judge.
There were other upsets along with those by Souffrant Forrest and Anderson in Assembly districts in the primary, as leftist candidates unseated longtime establishment Democrats and are now poised to sail to election in the general.
In Assembly District 50 in Brooklyn, activist Emily Gallagher defeated Assemblymember Joe Lentol. In Assembly District 51 in Brooklyn, Marcela Mitaynes defeated Assemblymember Felix Ortiz. In Assembly District 34 in Queens, Jessica Gonzalez-Rojas defeated Assemblymember Michael DenDekker. In Assembly District 36 in Queens, Zohran Mamdani defeated Assemblymember Aravella Simotas. In Assembly District 38 in Queens, Jenifer Rajkumar defeated Assemblymember Michael Miller. In Assembly District 84 in the Bronx, Amanda Septimo won after Assemblymember Carmen Arroyo was disqualified from the ballot.
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by Ethan Geringer-Sameth and Samar Khurshid
@GothamGazette
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by Samar Khurshid, senior reporter, Gotham Gazette
@samarkhurshid @GothamGazette
Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins (photo: NY Senate)
Two years ago, Democrats won a majority in the New York State Senate for the first time in eight years, winning full control of the state Legislature and the governor’s office and allowing them to pursue a raft of progressive legislation that had stalled under Republican obstruction. As the New York GOP has continued to diminish since that election, including another wave of retirements among state senators, and as President Donald Trump remains unpopular in the state, Democrats now see an opportunity to pick up even more seats and win a supermajority in the Senate to match that has long existed in the Assembly.
But, Republican leaders in the state have professed their own optimism given Trump’s presence at the top of the ballot this year, driving base turnout unlike two years ago, when the party also lost several seats in the House of Representatives, and ongoing criticism of criminal justice reforms passed by the Democrats in Albany. While GOP officials have been hesitant to predict they will regain the state Senate majority via this year’s elections, they do say they will chip away at the wide margin Democrats ran up in 2018.
The Democratic Party holds 40 out of 63 state Senate seats and needs only two more for a veto-proof supermajority. The party has long enjoyed a dominant lead in the 150-seat Assembly, currently holding 103 seats, but power in the Senate had for the most part eluded them before 2018. That year, propelled by a surge in Democratic turnout largely driven by anger against Trump, a slew of progressive Democrats deposed moderate members of their party who had made up the erstwhile Independent Democratic Conference, which caucused with Republicans and helped them control the chamber, in the primaries and a half-dozen others flipped seats on Long Island, in Southern Brooklyn, and north of the five boroughs.
Since 2018, there have been several retirements and resignations by GOP incumbents, including the most recent Republican majority leader, John Flanagan of Long Island, opening up an opportunity for Democrats to expand their power. Three Senate seats, including Flanagan’s District 2 (which isn’t seen as competitive, though), already lie vacant while Republicans hold 20 going into this election.
According to a spokesperson for the Senate Democratic conference, Democrats have their eye on picking up seats in ten districts recently or currently held by Republicans covering Long Island, the Hudson Valley, and Western New York – they are comfortable that they will win Districts 1, 41, 46, 50, 55, 56 and 60, while Districts 4, 51, and 61 seem to them to be leaning blue.
Senate Democrats consider themselves on the defensive in five seats they hold – they view Districts 3 and 40 as the most competitive races with Republican challengers while they expect to hold competitive Districts 6, 22, and 42, though they note those have seen heavy expenditures by the GOP and from independent entities. District 22 is the lone state Senate swing district in New York City, a Southern Brooklyn seat that Democrat Andrew Gounardes flipped in 2018 and is attempting to hold onto this year.
Senator Michael Gianaris, deputy majority leader and chair of the state’s Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, said in an interview he’s “very optimistic” about the election. “It was hard enough to get 40 [seats],” he said. “Adding a couple to that is going to be an unprecedented majority, but we're working towards it.”
Gianaris said there are several factors at play. The party enjoys a significant voter enrollment advantage – as of February 21, there were 6.56 million registered Democrats statewide, compared to 2.84 million Republicans and 2.82 million independent voters who are not registered with any political party. The prevailing sentiment against the president, “the strength of our incumbents, the success of our first term in the majority, the tidal wave of Republican retirements that have opened seats in districts that have a Democratic registration advantage is a factor. So there's a lot of reasons why I believe we're headed that way,” Gianaris said.
A spokesperson for Senate Republicans, however, said party leaders anticipate holding on to all of their seats, including the “open” seats where no incumbent is running in Districts 1, 2, 40, 45, 50, 51, 55, 56, 60 and 61. They believe that seven of their candidates challenging incumbent Democrats are in competitive, winnable races in Districts 3, 6, 22, 39, 40, 41, and 42.
The best case scenario for Republicans appears to be if they hang on to the seats they currently hold or were most recently held by Republicans, and also win back five seats from Democrats, which would still leave them short of recapturing the majority in the chamber, but help set the stage for additional wins in 2022. Senate Minority Leader Robert Ortt and State Republican Party Chair Nick Langworthy did not provide comment for this article despite multiple requests.
Former Senate Majority and Minority Leader Flanagan’s seat is a safe bet for Republicans. The party’s candidate is local union leader Mario Mattera, who is running against Democrat Michael Siderakis, a former state trooper. It's one of the few Senate districts where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats.
Democrats are also vastly outspending their opponents, a shift from previous elections when major special interests backed the GOP. But Democrats are faced with a torrent of independent expenditures, largely from police unions and billionaire cosmetics heir Ron Lauder. The police unions have already put more than $1 million into Republican senate races, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis. And Lauder has given about $4.8 million to an independent expenditure group he created, Safer Together New York, of which about $4.5 million has gone out the door. The expenditure campaigns have been premised on opposition to criminal justice reforms passed by the Democratic Legislature, and have taken particular aim at a major reform to bail laws, which they have blamed without direct evidence for contributing to spikes in violent crime and a drop in quality of life.
Langworthy has amplified that argument, as have legislative candidates across the state hoping they can persuade moderate Democrats and independent voters. “That's gonna be an issue that looms large over every state Senate district, in every state Assembly district, in every Congressional district where the Democratic incumbent either voted for that policy or stands with that bail and discovery reform,” he said in an interview on WMHT last month. “You know, you've got the rest of the country looking to New York and California saying don't let us become like them, because they see what's happened here with these ultra liberal policies that have really gutted the opportunity for our law enforcement officials to do their job.”
Gianaris said he isn’t worried about the attacks against his party. “Somehow, over the last decade, it seems that the big dark money always flows for the Republicans rather than against them. And we won regardless. So we know how to deal with this,” he said. There have been independent expenditures in favor of Democrats as well, and some of the big special interest donors that gave to the New York GOP shifted their giving to the Democrats once the latter took the Senate majority via the 2018 elections.
For Democrats, a supermajority in the Senate will mean the potential to claw back some power from Governor Cuomo, who has only expanded his authority in the last few months, particularly over the state budget, in response to the coronavirus pandemic and with the support of the Legislature. Whether Democrats in the Legislature would take a much more aggressive stance toward Cuomo is yet to be seen. But the possibility of such dynamics is an intriguing subplot of the election cycle.
Though dual supermajorities would allow Democratic legislators to override a veto by the governor and pass the types of legislation he has consistently opposed – higher taxes on the wealthy, for instance – it’s unclear whether the legislative chambers would use that tactic. “The governor's never had a veto overridden and I don't know that it would ever come to that,” Gianaris said. “What tends to happen is people realize what the possibilities are and what the math is and that affects the negotiated outcome.”
With two legislative supermajorities Democrats would also have a stronger hand in the redistricting process that will kick off after Census data is delivered from Congress to the states for electoral apportionment.
Bruce Gyory, a Democratic political consultant at the firm Manatt, Phelps & Phillips, LLP, said in a phone interview that this year’s election is unlike previous ones. “Usually in a given cycle, there's four to seven challenge races, real hard contested, swing or marginal races, ten at the absolute tops. This year, you have 16,” he said of the State Senate. “That is an astounding anomaly.”
As Gyory sees it, Republicans are hoping to win more moderate upstate and suburban districts by harping on the leftward swing driven by downstate Democrats, and Democrats are relying on strong candidates with good fundraising while making the argument that “Trump is a pair of cement shoes around the ankles of any Republican in a suburban area.”
“This is a good year to run as a Democrat,” Gyory added.
Jerry Skurnik, a long-time political consultant at Prime New York and former aide to Mayor Ed Koch, agreed. “I think Democrats have a good chance to reelect almost all their incumbents, if not all of them, and pick up four or five seats,” he said of the State Senate. “New York State is becoming more Democratic in general and I think Trump's election has moved it even further. Just like Trump's having problems with suburban voters outside of Dallas, Houston, and Atlanta, he’s even more so having those problems in New York.”
Where Democrats See Pick-Ups
In District 1 on Long Island, Republican Kenneth LaValle is retiring after 44 years in office when his term ends this year. Democrat Laura Ahearn, an attorney and social worker, is running against sitting Assemblymember Anthony Palumbo, formerly a Suffolk County prosecutor. The district covers the eastern side of Suffolk County.
In District 41, which covers most of Dutchess County and parts of Putnam County, Democrat Karen Smythe is challenging Republican State Senator Sue Serino for the second time after losing to her in 2018. That year, Smythe lost by only 688 votes and now has a better funded campaign in a district that has become more blue since her loss.
In District 46, Republican State Senator George Amedore’s retirement has given Democrats an opportunity for another seat. The district covers Montgomery County and Greene County and includes parts of Albany, Schenectady, and Ulster counties. Democrat Michelle Hinchey, daughter of late U.S. Rep. Maurice Hinchey, is seeking the seat, running against Republican Richard Amedure, a retired state trooper.
In District 50, which covers the Syracuse region, Republican State Senator Bob Antonacci left the Senate after being elected a state Supreme Court judge last year, leaving the seat vacant. Democrat John Mannio, a teacher, is hoping to take his place, facing off against Republican Angi Renna.
In District 55, which includes parts of Ontario County and Monroe County, Republican Senator Rich Funke decided he would not run for reelection, kicking off a competitive race Democrats believe they will win. Democrat Samra Brouk is running against Republican Chris Missick, an Army veteran and attorney.
In District 56, which falls entirely in Monroe County, Republican Senator Chris Robach is also retiring. Democrat Jeremy Cooney, the former chief of staff to Rochester Mayor Lovely Warren who unsuccessfully challenged Robach in 2018, is running for the seat a second time and faces Republican Mike Barry Jr., a Council Member from the town of Greece, in a district where Democrats have a strong enrollment advantage.
In District 60, the seat has been vacant since State Senator Chris Jacobs won a special election to the 27th Congressional District earlier this year. Democratic Assemblymember Sean Ryan is vying to replace him, facing off against Republican attorney Joshua Mertzlufft.
Democrats See A Solid Chance
The District 4 seat on Long Island is currently held by Republican State Senator Phil Boyle, who nearly lost in 2018 to Lou D’Amaro, a Suffolk county lawmaker. Democrats believe Boyle is vulnerable and have nominated former Assemblymember Christine Pellegrino to challenge him.
In District 51 in Central New York, Republican State Senator James Seward is retiring after 34 years in office. Republican Peter Oberacker, member of the Otsego County Board of Representatives, is seeking to replace him and is being challenged by Democrat Jim Barber, a farmer.
In District 61, yet another retirement, of Republican State Senator Ranzenhofer, has buoyed Democratic hopes. Democratic candidate Jacqualine Berger, an Amherst Town Council member, is vying for the seat against Republican Erie County legislator Ed Rath.
Highly Competitive Seats and Republican Optimism
Democrats find themselves defending several seats, some of which they very narrowly won in 2018 when they regained control of the State Senate.
In District 3 on Long Island, incumbent first-term Democratic State Senator Monica Martinez is being challenged by Republican Alexis Weik, the Islip town receiver of taxes.
In District 40, which includes parts of Westchester, Dutchess, and Putnam counties, incumbent Democratic State Senator Pete Harckham, who was first elected by a narrow margin in 2018, faces a competitive challenge from Rob Astorino, the former Westchester County Executive who unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2014 and lost his reelection bid in 2017 to then-State Senator George Latimer, now the county executive.
A first-term Democrat is also trying to hold onto a competitive seat in District 6 on Long Island, where incumbent State Senator Kevin Thomas is being challenged by Republican Dennis Dunne, a Hempstead Town Council member; in District 22 in Brooklyn, where Senator Andrew Gounardes is facing Republican Vito Bruno, in a district that is more moderate than other parts of the city; and in District 42, in the Hudson Valley and Catskills, where Senator Jen Metzger is defending her seat against Republican challenger Mike Martucci, a school bus business owner.
In District 5 on Long Island, Democrat Jim Gaughran is defending his seat against Republican challenger Edmund Smyth, a Council member from Huntington, and Green Party candidate Barbara Wagner. In District 39, Democratic State Senator James Skoufis, who was previously a member of the Assembly, is serving his first term as well. He is being challenged by Republican Steve Brescia, who has been a legislator in Orange County for more than two decades.
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by Samar Khurshid, senior reporter, Gotham Gazette
@samarkhurshid @GothamGazette