An Initial Look at Voter Turnout in the 2021 New York City Primaries
New York City voters voting (photo: Michael Appleton/Mayoral Photography Office)
Nearly 1 million New York City voters cast ballots in the mayoral primaries last month, according to unofficial results released by the New York City Board of Elections, marking the city's most participated-in local election in decades. While still low by historical standards, the turnout dwarfed the 2013 primaries -- the last mayoral race to have both Democratic and Republican primaries and no incumbent running -- by roughly 245,000 votes.
Combined Democratic and Republican turnout was 23% of registered voters in those two parties, a total of 998,000 voters out of 4,327,000 registered Democrats and Republicans. Turnout among Democratic voters was higher, with close to 25% of the city’s 3.77 million registered Democratic voters casting ballots, either in-person or by mail, in the primary won narrowly by Eric Adams. That is an increase from the roughly 22% that participated in the 2013 primary where Bill de Blasio was victorious.
Only 10.5% of 566,500 Republican voters in the city went to the ballot box, nominating Curtis Sliwa by a wide margin. The registration numbers are as of February, the latest provided by the New York State Board of Elections.
Democratic turnout as a percentage of registered voters was slightly over three points higher than in 2013, while Republican turnout dropped about one percent. The number of registered Democrats has grown by close to half a million since 2013, and Republicans by about 50,000, though they make up roughly the same proportions of the electorate. The two sets of party primaries were somewhat similar in that the 2013 and 2021 GOP races were both two-candidate affairs while the two Democratic primaries were more crowded competitions. There were key differences, however, particularly a number of changes to voting and election laws.
The New York City primaries this year were the first citywide races to use the new ranked-choice voting method (which is only at play in special and party primary elections) and the first mayoral elections to have both early voting and universal access to absentee voting. They took place as covid vaccination efforts made ground and public life reopened after more than a year of pandemic-related restrictions, but also amid an ongoing spike in gun violence and with unemployment rates still high. It was the first major city election after the Trump administration and the heightened political engagement it ushered in, though it’s unclear how much that may have waned after President Biden’s win last year.
Democratic turnout this year did beat the party's presidential primary showing last June, just after the height of the pandemic and with Biden already assured of the nomination, by about 90,000 votes (between those elections, from February 2020 to February 2021, about 142,000 more Democrats were added to the voter rolls).
The roughly 938,000 Democratic vote count was also about 25,000 higher than it was in the 2018 primaries when Governor Andrew Cuomo was challenged by Cynthia Nixon and there many other competitive state-level races, though turnout as a percentage of registered Democrats dropped two points in this primary from those in 2018.
Coming as the mayor, comptroller, several borough presidents, and dozens of City Council members faced term limits, last month’s primaries featured hundreds of candidates, many of whom benefited from the city's public campaign finance matching system. It’s unclear how much of a role ranked-choice voting’s advent played in the size of some of the candidate fields, from mayor on down the ballot.
Adams, the term-limited Brooklyn borough president, declared victory this past week after preliminary results from the Board of Elections showed him beating former sanitation commissioner Kathryn Garcia by one percent after eight rounds of instant run-off tabulation. The Democratic primary, open to two-thirds of the total registered electorate, featured 13 candidates including a range of moderates and progressives, electoral veterans and first-time candidates. The Republican primary, which only drew about 60,000 voters citywide, was between Sliwa, a vigilante and radio personality, and businessman Fernando Mateo.
The primaries, with almost all of the contests on the Democratic side, also included races for comptroller, public advocate, all five borough president posts, and all 51 City Council seats, as well as state-level posts of two district attorneys (Manhattan and Brooklyn), and judicial positions.
The turnout "shows there was some interest among voters," said Jerry Skurnik, a longtime political consultant, in an interview with Gotham Gazette. "Is it because they feel the city's in some kind of existential crisis and they came out or is it because there were two women who had a serious chance of winning?" He also noted the racial diversity of the group of frontrunner candidates, with three Black candidates, one of whom was Afro-Latina, and one of Asian descent. "Did that increase turnout in those groups? We don't know that yet...but that's a possibility," he said. Skurnik, among others, will analyze the granular voter turnout data when it is available, including analysis of the names of those who voted to estimate racial and ethnic group participation.
The fact that there was a large eight-candidate top tier of Demcoratic mayoral candidates all spending millions of dollars likely helped with turnout. As did the crowded and competitive primaries for comptroller, borough president offices, Manhattan District Attorney, and dozens of City Council races, several with more than 10 candidates on the ballot.
Part of the turnout increase may be the result of robust public engagement done by community-based organizations and supported by the city, which mirrored the successful outreach to boost Census response rates last year. "I think what we saw at the polls was the result of a lot of successful community outreach and organizing to ensure voters were prepared as much as possible for this type of election under the ranked choice voting system," said Lurie Daniel Favors, interim executive director of the Center for Law and Social Justice at Medgar Evers College, over the phone.
"As it pertains to outreach within communities of African descent, we had a very successful census-based campaign. We used that campaign to help fuel the work that we were doing now," she added.
For Daniel Favors, the protests last summer against police brutality "really elevated the conversation about what civic engagement looks like." Part of that, she said, is a greater "awareness and understanding about the way in which the systemic levers of power can be manipulated, pulled, and operated to transfer benefits to traditionally marginalized communities."
Looking at a map of initial first-choice vote data, Adams' strong showing in the so-called "outer boroughs" -- especially in eastern Queens, central and eastern Brooklyn, and much of the Bronx -- stands out. "That population of more traditional Black voters tend to be a little bit more centrist, they may have progressive ideals but when it comes to that ballot box, they're very, very practical," Daniel Favors said, which helped propel Adams' rise. The fact that he was "from the community," having grown up in southeast Queens and lived as an adult in central Brooklyn, and a police reformer while serving for two decades in the NYPD earlier in his career also helped, she said.
Interesting dynamics played out across the five boroughs in comparison to 2013, the last time the city saw a competitive Democratic primary for mayor. The number of Democratic votes in Staten Island, Brooklyn, and Queens grew by about two-fifths (44%, 40%, and 39% growth, respectively) from 2013, while the vote count in Manhattan grew by 33%. The Bronx saw the lowest growth in Democratic votes, with a shift of 10%. The changes could be the result of shifts in the number of registered voters (itself a function of the population, which hasn't changed significantly, and enthusiasm to register), voters' enthusiasm to vote, or other factors like the impact of the pandemic, which devastated many Bronx communities.
Comparisons to the 2013 Republican primary are more erratic. Manhattan saw the total number of Republican ballots cast cut nearly in half, while the Republican vote count on Staten Island grew by about half. Queens saw no change in the Republican vote count and the count in the Bronx and Brooklyn dropped by 5% and 18%, respectively.
Voting Methods
About 191,000 of the nearly 998,000 votes were cast in person during the nine-day early voting period leading up to election day. The early voting turnout was about four times higher than it was in the presidential primary last June, which had a far less competitive Democratic primary and was plagued by fears of spreading COVID-19 at poll sites. Another 132,000 ballots were absentees mailed in or dropped off. That represents a decrease in absentee voting of two-thirds from last June, the first New York election to allow universal mail-in voting.
According to an analysis of unofficial BOE absentee data done by the CUNY Graduate Center's Center for Urban Research, the districts with the most absentee ballot returns were in Manhattan (the Upper East and West Sides, Midtown, and parts of Lower Manhattan) and Downtown Brooklyn. The areas with the lowest absentee return rates were Staten Island's South Shore and the South Bronx.
RCV Participation
When all the votes are counted and the official results released, the Board of Elections will release the full "vote cast record," with granular detail about the votes and ballots, which will show how voters approached the initial citywide use of ranked-choice voting and this election, including for mayor and all the other offices on ballots.
Exit polling conducted by good government group Common Cause New York and Rank the Vote NYC, a voting advocacy and education group, showed 83% of the Democratic voters surveyed ranked at least two mayoral candidates, 72% ranked three candidates, and 42% ranked five candidates. Eighty percent of white voters ranked more than three candidates compared with 72%, 66%, and 64% of Asian, Black, and Hispanic voters, respectively, according to the poll, Seventy-eight percent of respondents said they "understood Ranked Choice Voting extremely or very well" and about the same said they want the system in future elections.
"From the voters' standpoint, this was a very successful entry into a new system," Daniel Favors said. "I think the data supports the fact that with even more of the type of education and ground games that we saw, even more New Yorkers would have been that much more empowered to participate."
She attributed part of the success to the allure of the new format. "Once they realized it wasn't a winner take all system and the strength of their ballot would actually last further into the process, I think that gave people a sense of empowerment," she said. According to the exit poll, 41% of voters ranked candidates "because it gave them more of a say in who gets elected."
About 139,000 Democratic ballots were "exhausted" by the eighth-round face-off between Adams and Garcia, meaning voters didn't rank the two candidates anywhere on their ballots. When Maya Wiley, former counsel to de Blasio, was eliminated in the penultimate round of the still-unofficial instant runoff that factored in almost all the votes, 74,000 ballots were exhausted, while 129,000 went to Garcia and 50,000 to Adams, according to the BOE's unofficial tabulation. Adams then led over Garcia by 8,426 votes.
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by Ethan Geringer-Sameth, reporter, Gotham Gazette
@GeringerSameth @GothamGazette
What's The [Data] Point? $103.3 billion - The New City Budget, with Comptroller Scott Stringer
What's The [Data] Point? Episode 109: $103.3 billion - the New City Budget, with Comptroller Scott Stringer [You can download What's The [Data] Point? wherever you get your podcasts, including on iTunes]
$103.3 billion is the total amount of spending authorized by the City Council for Fiscal Year 2022. While officials call it a budget of $98.3 billion, the larger figure reflects the full amount to be expended, including $6 billion available from the prior year due to higher than expected tax receipts and federal aid. New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer joined the show to discuss the adopted budget, which is the last under Mayor Bill de Blasio and this City Council, as well as Stringer, and the city's current and long-term fiscal picture.
Listen to the conversation and let us know what you think: @TweetBenMax & @CBCNY. Listen below or download wherever you get your podcasts!
In Mayoral Primary, Spending in Support of Adams More Than Combined Total for Garcia and Wiley
(l-r) Eric Adams, Kathryn Garcia, Maya Wiley
Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams claimed victory in the Democratic mayoral primary on Tuesday, with 50.5% of ranked-choice votes after almost all absentee votes were counted, beating former sanitation commissioner Kathryn Garcia by one percentage point. He credited “an historic, diverse, five-borough coalition led by working-class New Yorkers” for propelling him to victory.
But both because of and in order to assemble that coalition, Adams was the beneficiary of the the second-most spending in the primary, with his campaign expenditures and outside spending on his behalf totaling just under $17.8 million through the day before primary day, according to the latest disclosures with the New York City Campaign Finance Board.
That spending to help Adams win the primary was more than the combined total spending on behalf of Garcia and third-place finisher Maya Wiley, the former mayoral counsel — through the day before primary day, the totals of their campaigns and outside support was $17.2 million.
Primary election spending figures are not final, with additional disclosures from campaigns and independent expenditure committees due July 15. The campaigns will have to continue reporting fundraising and expenditure through the November general and after, as campaigns wind down.
Overall, Adams’ campaign spent just over $10 million as filed before primary day, second only to former Citigroup executive Ray Mcguire, whose campaign spent over $12.1 million and finished a distant seventh in the still-unofficial count. Adams’ campaign was the beneficiary of $7.7 million in outside spending by so-called Super PACs, political action committees created for the purpose of supporting or opposing candidates and issues in the election. The independent expenditures in Adams’ favor were the most of any of the Democratic mayoral candidates, and they were powered by hedge fund billionaires, wealthy charter school proponents, and labor unions that backed Adams’ candidacy.
In comparison, Garcia’s campaign spent $8.1 million overall per filings through the day before primary election day, and benefited from just under $200,000 in outside spending by one group, New Generation of Leadership PAC. Wiley’s campaign spent more than $6.7 million as filed before primary day and received more than $2.2 million in outside support.
Entrepreneur Andrew Yang, who came in fourth in the unofficial primary count, saw his campaign spend $9.6 million through June 21 and got more than $3.8 million worth of outside support, much of it funded by the same donors who backed Adams. Comptroller Scott Stringer’s campaign similarly spent $9.6 million and got $4.75 million in outside support, largely from the teachers union.
McGuire and former federal housing secretary Shaun Donovan were among those who saw significant independent expenditures (IEs) in their names, though both first-time candidates failed to break through to voters. Outside groups spent $5.74 million to support McGuire and $6.5 million to support Donovan, most of which was funded by the candidate’s wealthy father.
To raise more than $10 million for his campaign itself, Adams received 9,409 donations totaling about $6.16 million in private support (an average donation of just under $655) and earned $6.45 million in public matching funds.
Adam’s most prominent outside supporter was Strong Leadership NYC, a PAC helmed by Jenny Sedlis, who took temporary leave from her position as executive director of StudentsFirstNY, a pro-charter school and education reform lobbying group. The PAC alone spent $6.26 million supporting Adams through the day before primary day, and its top funders include hedge fund managers Steve Cohen, Daniel Loeb, and Kenneth Griffin. “The strongest candidate ran the strongest campaign,” Sedlis said in a phone interview. “An IE can never win the race for a candidate. They can only augment that candidate’s message and supplement what the campaign is doing.”
The PAC made an early strategic decision to shore up support for Adams among Black voters with millions in radio and television ads through most of the campaign. The group brought in ad executive Terrance Green, who previously worked on outreach to Black voters for Joe Biden’s presidential campaign. In the later stages of the race, the group pivoted to Latino voters. Both those constituencies were crucial in the primary and Adams handily won them.
The Hotel Trades Council also made an independent expenditure effort during the election, with more than $1 million focused on supporting Adams’ campaign. Neal Kwatra, a consultant with Metropolitan Public Strategies, ran the outside effort, which included television, streaming, and digital ads particularly targeted to Latino voters and Spanish-language speakers, he said.
“There was a big focus on Latino voters who we, from our research, saw as a very pivotal swing group,” he explained on the Max Politics podcast. “We sort of had a sense that the campaign, you know, knew what they were doing in terms of the base of Eric's vote so we spent a lot of time on Latino voters and older voters writ large in the diverse communities where we knew his votes needed to come out.”
A spokesperson for the Garcia campaign pointed out in a phone interview that the campaign was able to come within one point of victory with far fewer resources. “It feels like we accomplished something really, really big,” said the spokesperson, who requested anonymity. “It feels like we were able to do something that is not done very often in politics...Even without some of that big IE or financial backing, we were able to develop, I think, very personal, real relationships with voters and be out there every day talking to people, and to come within that 1%...To come so close and to start where we started...It's a huge achievement.”
Other outside supporters of Adams included the Empire State 32BJ SEIU PAC, affiliated with the property service workers union. The PAC spent about $288,000 supporting Adams with messages focused on its membership, union workers, and working class New Yorkers more broadly. “When you look at that margin of victory, right, and it was a close election, folks like me who have been doing this for a long time know everything counts,” said Candis Tolliver, vice president and political director for the union.
“I’m hoping that what happened here in New York City, people are going to see the cross-section of everyday, working-class New Yorkers who came together and brought me to become, potentially, the Mayor of this city,” Adams said on CNN New Day in a victory lap interview on Wednesday.
[READ: Eric Adams Wins Democratic Nomination for Mayor of New York City]
There was some marginal oppositional spending of $20,555 against Adams. (There was also $175,000 spent against Andrew Yang.)
Gabe Tobias of Our City PAC, which was created to promote progressive candidates in the election, pointed out that though outside spenders were heavily involved in the primary, most did not get the results they sought. “I think the good side is all that money didn't buy everyone what they wanted. You had these massive Super PACs for Ray McGuire, Shaun Donovan. Those guys went absolutely nowhere...And you could probably make the argument that Eric Adams didn't win because he outspent right,” Tobias said.
What remains to be seen, Tobias emphasized, is whether Adams will be the first “blue-collar mayor” of the city as he campaigned on being or if he will be beholden to the monied interests that boosted his prospects. “For Eric now, honestly, the choice is on him,” Tobias said. “I think he's gonna have to prove that he is the working class man that he says he is, and not somebody who just came in aligned with special interests who funded his campaign.”
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by Samar Khurshid, senior reporter, Gotham Gazette
@samarkhurshid @GothamGazette
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