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Cuomo Walks


"Have you ever walked out of a movie?"

I was asked this seemingly innocuous question once, as part of a course in political strategy. The idea was to illustrate a powerful law in political campaigns: The Law of Sunk Investments.

Walking out of a movie, a bad movie, a movie that is so awful that you know you would be better off at home balancing your checkbook, may seem like a no-brainer. But it turns out that most people have a hard time giving up on their investment: the price of the ticket, the time already spent getting to the theater and finding a seat and sitting through the first half. And then, there is the emotional turmoil: letting go of the idea that you were going to have fun tonight, that the movie will somehow redeem itself in the end and turn out to be something worth seeing.

The Law of Sunk Investments states that however much time or money or energy you have expended, it can't justify spending even one more cent or one more minute or one more ounce of effort, if what you are doing just isn't working.

Andrew Cuomo realized this truth, and on September 3, 2002, dropped out of the Democratic primary race for governor.

It came as a shock, despite the fact that Cuomo was facing a double-digit deficit in his efforts to overtake his primary opponent, State Comptroller H. Carl McCall. There was much talk about a poll released the same day that Cuomo made his announcement, but the truth is, the survey results could not possibly have come as a surprise to either camp. Both Cuomo and McCall would have known their numbers based on their own internal polling.

It came as a surprise, not because anyone necessarily expected Cuomo to come from behind and win the primary, but because of the nature of campaigning. You enter a campaign knowing that one of two things will happen. You will win, or you will lose. You prefer winning. If you lose, it will be because you tried to win, tried everything within your power, but ultimately came up short. It is the adversarial nature of electoral politics, and it is a system that we believe produces the best candidates. Deciding a week before the two-way primary election that you don't want your votes to be counted after all is not unheard of, but it is unusual.

It means giving up on the goal that has kept you going for months, putting aside the money that has been spent, dismissing the effort that has been made by campaign staff and volunteers, and letting go of the hard-won support you have earned. It means walking away from a year of your life, and disappointing all of those family members and supporters and donors and staff who are counting on you to win.

At a press conference, Cuomo explained his reasons for ending his campaign a week early. He said his advisors told him he would have to go on the air with negative advertising to give him any chance of winning. Whatever these advisors actually told him, this would have been sound political advice. His only chance of winning would have been to attack McCall with consistent negative messages, and under the circumstances, this is what I would have expected to see during the last ten days of campaigning.

His reluctance to engage in this negative campaigning was the reason he gave for deciding to concede the race. This had the double benefit of sounding good, and in all likelihood, being the truth. Knowing he would have to create a firestorm of controversy just to give himself a shot at the nomination, and damage both himself and his opponent in the process, without a guarantee that he would ultimately win, he most likely decided the risk was too great. Knowing he had no other options, he decided to abandon a losing effort. He made a strategic decision to give up his dream of being the next governor but maintain his political integrity, and live to fight another day.

Whatever personal struggles Andrew Cuomo may have had before coming to this decision, there is little doubt that externals pressures were active as well. The fingerprints of the New York Democratic Party machine could be seen everywhere in the days leading up to the announcement.

Every political party is ultimately going to support the nominee, but even before the nominee is chosen, public or private efforts will be made to close ranks and mobilize support around one candidate. Party leaders were anxious to avoid a messy primary like the mayoral run-off between Mark Green and Freddie Ferrer last fall. None-too-subtle hints were handed down: Senator Hillary Clinton who had claimed neutrality in the contest "happened" to march next to Carl McCall in a parade before key constituents the weekend before.

The Dean of the New York Democratic Congressional delegation, Charles Rangel, spoke for Andrew Cuomo at his press conference. His grandfatherly tone and kind words were genuinely touching, but there was a subtext to his remarks: he was thanking Cuomo for taking a hit for the good of the party, for letting this one go, for being a team player. The speculation was that someone had exercised some party discipline, and Cuomo had acquiesced.

The result of this surprising turn of events is that Carl McCall now has a straight shot at the Democratic nomination. He can hold valuable resources in reserve for the general election; he can take it easy, rest, prepare, and represent a unified Democratic front in the November election. And all of this is good news. But there is a down side. No one wants to win by default, even if the outcome is all but pre-determined. The coverage he would have received and the "bump" in support he might have anticipated upon winning the primary are no longer expected.

And there's something else, something that's hard to define but a genuine phenomenon in electoral politics. The minute a candidate drops out of a campaign, he experiences an immediate image makeover. According to the new wisdom, Cuomo isn't an opponent anymore, he's a statesman of New York politics who had the grace to selflessly bow out of the race for the good of the state and the Democratic Party. Now he's one of the Good Guys. McCall doesn't get the satisfaction of beating Cuomo, he has to settle for shaking hands and accepting his support with humility and gratitude. It puts McCall squarely in the role of Powerful Political Insider, a role he has tried hard to avoid.

McCall likes to describe himself as the underdog, and why not? Everyone loves an underdog. Even when he was twenty points in the lead, he insisted he was the underdog. He's not the underdog in the primary anymore, now he's the presumptive nominee. And now that he's the nominee, he's running in the general election against two-term governor George Pataki.

That makes him the legitimate underdog at least for now, and this time, we can be sure that both candidates will be sticking around to see how the story ends.

Susan Reefer is a Republican pollster and media strategist. She is based in New York City.

9/11/01-02: Altering The Political Landscape


Most people have probably forgotten that September 11, 2001, started out as a day when New York City held primary elections. That memory may resurface for many as they head to the polls on the eve of the anniversary, September 10th, for this year's primary.

This year's primary election is not just a calendar year away from the attacks, but it comes at the end of a year when the political fortunes of many candidates have been deeply affected by the implications of the tragedy. The attacks were the background of political life in New York starting with last year's mayoral race and continuing through this year's race for governor.

CAMPAIGN 2001

On September 11th, the primary was canceled by noon. Like other New Yorkers, the candidates for political office not just the race for mayor, but some 400 candidates for other local races stopped what they were doing. For a while, many considered it in bad taste to campaign.

But the primary was rescheduled, there was then a Democratic mayoral run-off, and within a month, the contest was between Democratic Mark Green and Republican Michael Bloomberg.

Mark Green was the Public Advocate, someone with years of political experience. Mike Bloomberg was a businessman who had never run for political office before. The city's response to the attacks became an issue almost immediately.

Sitting Mayor Rudy Giuliani had become a symbol of strong leadership in a time of crisis: his confidence and compassion had brought assurance and inspiration to a city badly in need of both. Although the new term limits law meant he was unable to run for a third term as mayor, New Yorkers of every political persuasion were grateful to him for his role in the days and weeks following the attacks.

Against this backdrop, Mark Green choose to make a public comment critical of the mayor's recent job performance. His remarks suggested he would have or could have done as good a job if he himself had been mayor. Whether or not this statement was accurate, it was considered highly inappropriate and mean-spirited, and Green was widely criticized for making it.

At about the same time, Giuliani endorsed Bloomberg. Although Bloomberg was running as a Republican, the same party Giuliani belonged to, the two men came from very different backgrounds and were not natural political allies. But the fact that Giuliani made the decision under these unusual circumstances only made the endorsement more compelling. Giuliani's decision to make Bloomberg his public choice had a profound and immediate impact on the race.

Endorsements have long been seen as a way to increase a candidate's stature, or to deliver one small, loyal block of voters, or to decorate a campaign with a well-known name. Never before has an endorsement had the effect of changing the dynamics of a campaign the way this endorsement did.

THE GOVERNOR'S RACE

It would seem almost impossible that a candidate running for high office in New York could fail to learn from another candidate's mistake just five months earlier. But it happened, this time in the governor's race.

Andrew Cuomo, a candidate for the Democratic nomination for governor, was leading in the polls in early 2002. Then he criticized George Pataki's performance in the aftermath of September 11th as inept and ineffective; the governor, Cuomo said, had simply been holding Giuliani's coat.

Whether or not the remark cost him the nomination, he lost his lead in the polls not long afterwards. When he dropped out of the race a week before the primary, conceding to his primary opponent, H. Carl McCall, one newspaper ran the headline: "Cuomo Folds, Plans to Hold McCall's Coat."

THE REBUILDING PLANS

New York City's rebuilding efforts will be a statewide, as well as a nationwide. focus for years to come. The question of how to best rebuild and revitalize lower Manhattan was a main theme for each of the major candidates for governor throughout the campaign.

Carl McCall has put an emphasis on economic recovery, with a plan to create 100,000 new jobs in the areas of financial services, biotechnology, information technology and business services. He also proposed an International Center for Commerce and Culture, designed to attract international business headquarters and make New York City the true financial capital of the world.

Although Andrew Cuomo ultimately dropped out of the race, his rebuilding plans were some of the most creative of any of the major candidates. He saw the rebuilt downtown area as a sort of high-tech capitalist utopia: New York City cultural landmarks, a relocated World Bank, an integrated transportation system, a developed waterfront with a harbor economy, and a newly commissioned World Institute of Health, doing valuable research while also creating a biotechnology economy.

Meanwhile Governor George Pataki is said to be the beneficiary of what one Democrat calls the "Ground Zero effect." Pataki has promised the victims' families that nothing would be built in the "footsteps" of the twin towers, the actual ground space once occupied by the buildings themselves.

The legacy of last fall's terror attacks will continue to be felt. The political implications are only just now emerging.

Susan Reefer is a Republican pollster and media strategist. She is based in New York City.

The Arts and Albany


In the new state budget, state lawmakers gave the New York State Council for the Arts the same amount of money as last year -- $44 million to give as grants for artists and institutions. In a total budget of $89.6 billion, this amounts to one half of a tenth of one percent. But everything is relative, and in a year of a severe economic problems and low expectations, this can be greeted as a success.

Before this year, the state arts budget has grown annually since 1997, thanks to the advocacy of the New York City Arts Coalition and other city groups. Each spring, teams head to the state capital for "Arts Day," armed with stories about what's happening in the city's sprawling cultural scene. While most are arts professionals, occasionally an audience member or other non-professional will make the trip. Once, the mother of a young man who had joined TADA„a city group that involves children and teens, many from low-income communities, in musical theater„went to Albany to tell lawmakers how culture had not only made a difference in the life of her son, but in her own life, as well.

It is this kind of personal testimony, says Norma Munn, chairperson of NYC Arts Coalition, that gets the ear of Albany lawmakers. Her organization recruits people to fill buses, arms them with briefing materials, and shapes the teams' overall message. This year's message„about the need for stability in funding„seems to have been heard. Although many argue that power in Albany lies in the hands of the governor, the speaker of the assembly, and the leader of the senate, at least for arts advocates, going directly to individual legislators has produced results. (About 75 percent of the time, Munn estimates, advocates are paired with the legislators who represent their organization's district, and can thus provide specific information tailored to the audience.)

And yet, state budget increases for the arts haven't kept pace with inflation, and there are now many more arts organizations competing for limited funds. As a benchmark for Albany, many arts advocates recall the "glory days" of Nelson Rockefeller, who, in 1960 as governor, created the New York State Council on the Arts before there was even an National Endowment of the Arts, and proceeded to fund culture at levels not seen before or since.

The November Elections

The arts spend most of the time under the political radar, emerging occasionally over a first amendment issue, and then just as quickly dropping out of sight. (When Giuliani threatened to create a "decency commission" to vet city-funded art, then-city comptroller and now gubernatorial candidate Carl McCall scored points with many New Yorkers when he quipped that the proposed commission on decency "ought to look at all political operations at City Hall."

Even for many arts professionals, culture is not a make-or-break issue. Norma Munn points to the state senate race in Manhattan's 26th district as a litmus test for the arts community. Democratic incumbent state senator Liz Krueger faces Republican challenger Andrew Eristoff, a former Upper East Side council member and commissioner of finance who is now the Republican Party Chairman. Krueger has a long and impressive record on housing rights and consumer protections„typical Democratic issues, which appeal to the many liberally minded in the arts community. Eristoff, on the other hand, is cut from Bloomberg's cloth; he is a fiscal conservative who has been a loyal and high-profile patron of the arts, particularly dance. It is tough to say how most arts professionals would vote. (Fortunately, as Munn points out, few live on the Upper East Side.)

Albany and Rebuilding

An issue of great concern to the arts community is the rebuilding of the World Trade Center. "Creative Downtown," a report on the potential role of culture in rebuilding that was released in late July, and based on public discussions organized by the Lower Manhattan Cultural Council and the Arts Coalition, makes clear that artists care about more than just a memorial. Many believe that rebuilding creates an opportunity for an economic and social transformation of Lower Manhattan. The goals described„creating a 24/7 community, preserving affordable residential and work space„mesh with the goals of many civic planners and community leaders.

Recommendations focus, not surprisingly, on real estate. To prevent the crowd-out of artists that began before 9/11 and that, many fear, will be exacerbated by commercial rebuilding, the report calls on legislators to: establish an arts and cultural land trust; construct affordable performance spaces; and issue "arts bonds" for capital projects, among other proposals.

 



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