Gov. Hochul talks budget (photo: office of Governor Hochul)
Governor Hochul and the New York State Legislature finished passing the 2023-2024 state budget on May 3, about a month after the April 1 start of the fiscal year. The budget includes generous increases in funding for schools, health and mental health care, the MTA, and more. The budget is, of course, intended to be balanced, but a New York State Comptroller April 2023 cash report, issued May 16, showed a major plunge in April tax receipts from the prior year, raising concerns about a developing budget deficit for this fiscal year as it’s just beginning.
The report comes early in the new fiscal year and includes tax returns filed by April 15, showing a 49% drop in income tax revenue compared to April 2022, falling from $14 billion to $7 billion.
Another report from Comptroller Tom DiNapoli’s office, released May 18 on the enacted state budget, says that April tax collections overall (including sales, corporate, and other) were $4.4 billion below predictions issued by the State Division of the Budget (DOB) just a few months ago.
The DOB had already forecast a drop in collections compared to April 2022, but the actual collections were still 39% below forecast. There is no official prediction yet of a sudden large deficit opening up in the state budget, but these numbers and other indicators tell me a big hole is highly likely.
The Comptroller’s analysis of the decline offers insight into why a deficit may have already opened, with this statement (my underline) on page 8 of the report:
“Although only a month into the new fiscal year, April tax collections may be a cause for concern, particularly in relation to the PIT [Personal Income Tax]. A large share of April PIT receipts is related to the settlement of the previous tax year as the majority of taxpayers file their annual returns during the month. These settlement collections are not based on current economic circumstances but those of last year. For example, they reflect the overall decline in the financial markets which impacted taxpayers’ investment income, such as dividends, interest, and capital gains. According to reports from the Department of Taxation and Finance, the net settlement for the 2022 tax year totaled $3.6 billion, 66.3 percent lower than that for 2021.”
As the Comptroller report points out, the tax revenue reduction in large part related to taxpayers’ income from 2022. It is past income, not present or even recent income. The basis for income in 2022 must have included large declines in capital gains income, concentrated heavily among the wealthy and related to declines in the stock market in 2022. The S&P 500 fell 19% in 2022.
According to the most recent information from the State Division of the Budget, in 2020, the top 1% of New York taxpayers were 53% of total nonwage income (capital gains, dividends, etc.) and 46% of New York State income tax liability, meaning drops in their nonwage income have major effects on New York’s tax receipts.
One possible confirmation that New York is headed for deficits comes from California. The state government there has announced it has a $32 billion deficit for its budget scheduled for adoption on July 1, 2023, an immense swing from large surpluses. California adopts its budget several months later in the year than New York, meaning it is getting more information about its tax receipts now than New York relied upon several months ago when it built the assumptions for its own budget. California’s economy suffered from major climate impacts in 2022, which is part of that story. California’s tax system, however, is similar to New York; its wealthiest taxpayers make up a large portion of the state’s tax revenue, and can be significantly affected by swings in the stock market.
A New York deficit of $4.4 billion would not provoke an immediate crisis because the State’s operating budget using State funds is $127 billion a year (of the $229 billion budget for the new fiscal year, which includes a lot of federal funds). The State has immense reserves, pegged initially at $19.5 billion, due in part to a surplus in the last fiscal year of nearly $9 billion, according to the last DOB update before adoption.
There is no evidence in New York that the current economy is declining; sales and corporate income tax receipts in April were normal, and withholding tax receipts from currently employed people did not decline. The State can backfill a deficit from its reserves.
A budget hole, however, could seriously exacerbate the State’s long-term challenges because budget forecasts project large deficits in the next three years, 2025-2027. State DOB budget gap forecasts are based on projected revenue and spending: in balance in 2023-2024, but deficits of $5 billion in 2025, $8.5 billion in 2026, and $7 billion in 2027 (see p.95 of the Updated New York Executive Budget, March 2023).
The State’s Financial Plans anticipate using its $19.5 billion in reserves to help cover those deficits in coming years, and those deficits add up to over $20 billion. But if the State needs reserves to cover even a $5 billion deficit this year, it will run out of its reserves that much more quickly. Any new weakness in New York’s economy will accelerate the State’s deficits.
After Governor Hochul issued her proposed budget, the Legislature’s own plans would have added $4 billion in spending above her budget. The Governor and the Legislature finalized the budget with only an extra $2 billion above the Governor’s proposal. The Governor deserves credit for getting the Legislature to exercise some restraint on spending, especially now that the risks of a hole in the budget are so substantial.
It may be some months before the Governor and the State Division of the Budget acknowledge a current-year deficit. There will be enough money this year to cover it, barring a disaster. I was in the Legislature in 2008 when then-Governor David Paterson called us back in December of that year to address an $18 billion deficit that had opened in New York’s budget as the Great Recession began. Let’s hope nothing comparable happens this time.
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Jim Brennan was a member of the New York State Assembly for 32 years, where he chaired four committees. On Twitter @JimBrennanNY.
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"Tell Asian Stories" (photo: Don Pollard/Governor's Office)
As Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) women, May is a month of celebration. It is also a time to highlight Mental Health Awareness and commemorate Mother’s Day. But while many of us are celebrating, some are coping with a gaping void left by those who died by suicide in the past year.
Though updated suicide statistics for 2022 are not yet available, we’ve seen the stories reported by community media outlets of individuals in our community who are no longer with us. It’s all heartbreaking.
Take Flushing, Queens, where Asians make up more than 70% of the population. At least four high-profile Asian women have died by suicide in the neighborhood since last May. What’s even more tragic is that family members or friends of most of them told the media that these individuals had shown some signs of distress before they were swallowed up by despair. As we know, these tragedies are often preventable if they had received proper care. But finding those necessary resources is not always easy for Asian American and immigrant women.
Statistics and studies, although far from extensive, have shed light on AAPI women’s critical needs for mental health services through the years. For example, data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ Office of Minority Health shows that suicide was the leading cause of death for Asian Americans aged 15-24 in 2017-2018, and Asian American girls, in grades 9-12, were 20% more likely to attempt suicide compared to their white peers.
An annual survey released by MetroPlusHealth this month sounds another alarm. The latest data from the city-owned affordable health insurance entity finds that Asian women face greater mental health risk than many others. Despite recent attention on anti-Asian violence, 41% of respondents had been called a racial slur in the past year. This prejudice was not only from strangers. For example, 48% of participants said they have encountered racial discrimination in the workplace, almost double the average for women citywide.
With the backdrop of these devastating statistics, there is a positive note – Asian women have gained a greater awareness of mental health issues. The vast majority of respondents, 77%, said they would encourage their family members and friends to seek professional mental health services, 10 percentage points higher than last year. While 84% agreed that talking to a mental health professional would positively impact their life, 16 percentage points higher than the previous year.
However, whether higher risks and greater awareness can transfer to obtaining help successfully is another story. The survey finds only 45% of Asian women said they know a community-based organization providing mental health services in their preferred language. The importance of linguistic and cultural competency in mental health services for immigrants and immigrant communities cannot be emphasized enough. How do you explain your sadness or trauma in your native language? How do you express and accept affection when it is not a cultural practice?
The solutions are coming from community groups and healthcare providers who lower the difficulty of seeking help. To close the language gap, the Asian American Federation created a mental health directory serving nearly 18,000 people with a list of in-language professionals in various neighborhoods throughout New York City to ensure every Asian New Yorker who needs mental health care is able to receive it in the language they are most comfortable speaking.
While providing access to professionals is a priority, we must also work towards more transparent conversations at home. In traditional Asian families, regular usage of the word “love” is unusual, and the term “mental health” simply doesn’t exist in many Asian languages and dialects — and when it does, the counterpart often carries significant stigma. This is where representation can make an impact.
The AAPI community has a long road ahead of us in tackling the mental health gap. For us, perhaps the journey can start this month with some simple steps. Hug your mom, tell her you love her and ask how she’s feeling. Open the lines of communication that normalize expressions of affection and care. It is also our hope that more people in broader society will work towards language inclusivity and accessibility to make mental health resources more equitable. That way, next May and thereafter all Asian grandmothers, mothers, and daughters who should be here to celebrate will be here.
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Luna Liu is marketing manager of MetroPlusHealth, a New York City-based nonprofit health insurance company. Jo-Ann Yoo is executive director of the Asian American Federation. On Twitter @MetroPlusHealth & @AAFederation.
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Animal awareness (photo: John McCarten/NYC Council)
May 19 marks Endangered Species Day, a time when people around the world focus on animals who are in grave danger of becoming extinct or soon endangered.
This year is especially poignant, as it also marks the 50th anniversary of the Endangered Species Act — landmark legislation conserving wildlife, fish, and plants, as well as habitats.
Even New York City is home to two species of wildlife that are considered endangered or vulnerable. The impossibly cute and endangered piping plover bird, with its round body, tiny size, and charming features, has recently seen a resurgence on New York City beaches thanks to the efforts of wildlife conservationists and concerned citizen volunteers. Horseshoe crabs are a familiar sight along the beaches of Brooklyn, but many do not know that these crustaceans are considered vulnerable on the IUCN List of Threatened Species. Both of these species face pressures from habitat loss and destruction, as well as human disturbance.
I hope you will find inspiration to take action during this day, celebratory month, and beyond — because the stakes have never been higher and consequences more dire, for wildlife and for humans, too.
Our leading scientists say we are at a crossroads, facing potential catastrophic damage to ecosystems with loss of biodiversity around the globe reaching crisis levels, according to this year’s report by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Animal populations have declined by nearly 70% in the last 50 years due to the compounding effects of human activity, including overhunting and exploitation of animals, habitat destruction, and environmental pollution.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres captured the situation well when he said, “humanity has become a weapon of mass extinction” during opening remarks for the most recent global biodiversity summit.
The good news is we still have time to choose protection over destruction; to shepherd in a new era of respect for all animals as we share the same destiny driven by human actions.
As the New York state director for the nonprofits Animal Wellness Action and Center for a Humane Economy, and a resident of Brooklyn, I am part of several current campaigns and hope one or more may be of interest, because there is no better time to step up and be a part of promoting the health of animal lives. There is so much needless cruelty done to animals that is harming not just our human souls, but the web of life that defines the planet as a whole. If we heal the animals, we heal the Earth.
Get the Lead Out of Our Wildlife
Nearly half of our bald and golden eagles are suffering and many dying just this past winter from toxic levels of lead — one of the most dangerous pollutants causing adverse effects on wildlife today and potentially harming population growth and leading to extinction of sensitive species. You can help. Learn about the dangers of lead ammunition and fishing tackle left in the environment and food chain.
Protect Apex Predators to Boost Biodiversity
Science tells us quite clearly that our top predators — wolves, mountain lions, and bears — serve key ecological roles in safeguarding biodiversity. According to one study in Mammal Review, “Large, terrestrial carnivores are key regulators exerting strong and irreplaceable effects on biological community assemblages, and their absence can lead to fundamentally downgraded ecosystems.” Instead of wiping them out, as humans have done throughout history, we need to respect and protect them. Learn more about how to help.
Mass Killing is Not Conservation
Independent scientists and academics are rightfully concerned that the largest massacre of land mammals on the planet today — the inhumane slaughter of kangaroos in the wild — is putting wildlife at risk. My organization has been wildly successful at convincing two of the leading three sport shoe manufacturers — Nike and Puma — to stop sourcing kangaroos as material to make soccer cleats. Tell Adidas that it too must stop supporting the largest massacre of land mammals on the planet today.
Factory Farm Pollution Touches Us All
Besides being cruel, industrialized factory farming has caused irreparable harm to healthy ecosystems and wildlife by polluting our air, water, and land. You can take part in meaningful reform by telling your Congressional representatives that they can stop the inhumane confinement of pigs in gestation stalls. And help to end the hyperproduction of dairy cows by telling your legislators to provide a simple choice of soy in our nation’s public school cafeterias.
All New Yorkers can feel good about their experiences and engagement during this year’s Endangered Species Day and beyond.
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Susan Stork is New York State Director of Animal Wellness Action. On Twitter @awaction_news.
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