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Guideposts for the Governor to Shape a Responsible 2023 Agenda


Governor Hochul gives her first State of the State (photo: Darren McGee/Governor's Office)


A year ago, after Governor Hochul had made her first State of the State address, I wrote a column, For State’s Future, The Governor Must Say No, urging her to reject well-intentioned but unwise proposals by legislators and activists. Reading it again now, after Hochul’s inauguration to her first full term as Governor, I am struck by how much of it is still relevant. 

The state’s fiscal situation is more precarious than it was a year ago as federal covid relief tapers off, the economy’s recovery is slower than in other parts of the country, and recession looms as a real threat. Even under relatively optimistic assumptions, the current state financial plan shows a fiscal cliff of $6 billion in 2027 and a risk of as much as a $13 billion deficit in 2028. So, my previous admonition to Governor Hochul is even more important now: say no to ill-advised policies and spending and take actions to put the state on a sound financial path even if they may be unpopular in the short-term.

In brief, here are some of the most salient things Governor Hochul should say in her State of the State to send a message to the Legislature that she will be strong and resist pressure to raise taxes and spend excessively:

-Because user fees from those who can afford them are an important source of revenue, MTA fares must be permitted to increase by the small, incremental amount approved by the MTA board. We need riders to continue to cover a reasonable portion of the costs of running a 24-hour transit system. 

-By the same token, tuition at CUNY and SUNY should continue; there is simply no responsible way to pay for free college for those who are not eligible for the considerable need-based grants and subsidies already available.

-The reforms to the New York City property tax system recommended by the report of the NYC Advisory Commission on Property Tax Reform should be enacted into state law. They address only some, not all of the inequities in the current system, but will go a long way to rationalize the taxation of individually-owned residential property in the city.

-Absent more comprehensive property tax reform that addresses the excessive burden placed on rental and commercial properties, a replacement for the “421a” program to incentivize the construction of rental housing must be enacted. We need much more rental housing to meet demand, encourage growth, and accommodate a variety of income levels in a diverse array of neighborhoods.

-The rates of spending growth in the two largest programs in the state budget are unsustainable. There must be reforms to control the costs of Medicaid and school aid in a way that more appropriately targets benefits to those who are in need. Specifically:

-The Foundation Aid formula for school aid must be revised to redirect aid to the neediest districts and stop providing regular increases to school districts that are already fully resourced. 

-The Medicaid Redesign Task Force reforms that were set aside during the pandemic must be implemented and additional reforms developed  to help constrain the dramatic growth in by far the largest expenditure in the state budget.

-Congestion pricing will get out of the planning phase and into operation ASAP with minimal exceptions!

Nothing on this list will generate resounding applause from the members of the State Senate and Assembly in the State of the State audience. But now is the time for the Governor of the Empire State to show that she will be tough and relentless in assuring that New York remains a thriving place for people to live and work where government resources are used wisely and effectively.

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Carol Kellermann is a long-time New York civic leader who has worked in and out of government and led nonprofits including Citizens Budget Commission, The September 11th Fund, and Learning Leaders.

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We’re All Exhausted, But Don’t Let that Stop You from Taking Essential Health Precautions Amid a Triple Threat


Getting vaccinated (photo: Michael Appleton/Mayoral Photography Office)


While COVID-19 has exhausted us, vigilance is critical as RSV and the flu also threaten our health, our loved ones, and our city.

Last year around the holiday season, many of us were gift shopping and preparing to see loved ones when we were alerted to news about the latest COVID-19 variant, the fast-spreading Omicron. We then had to access the latest information about the ever-evolving threat and reassess some of our plans and approach, trying to keep ourselves and our loved ones safe. One year later, we are fighting three battles: COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and the flu season. All threaten to be the worst in years. However, unlike two years ago, we know how to combat these threats, have tools to do so, and must act before the case counts spiral out of control. 

Exposure to the flu decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic due to social distancing and masking. Most of the related mandates and restrictions are now gone, and people have been gathering more often throughout the holiday season, which can increase the transmission of covid, the flu, and other respiratory diseases. Experts are concerned that those who are not vaccinated and have not naturally been exposed to the flu for a few years could develop more severe symptoms from these illnesses.

Even with the current triple threat, precautions remain the same, and we urge all New Yorkers to take them: get fully vaccinated against COVID-19 and the flu, wash your hands regularly, stay at home if you’re feeling unwell, keep hydrated (especially when feeling unwell), and wear a mask in crowded indoor spaces.

It should come as no surprise that a September Kaiser Family Foundation survey found "that awareness of the updated [covid vaccine] boosters is relatively modest, with about half of adults saying they've heard ‘a lot’ (17%) or ‘some’ (33%) about the new shots.” At the same time, another National Foundation for Infectious Diseases (NFID) survey found that only 49% of U.S. adults planned to get a flu vaccine this season. This statistic is a  drop from last year when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that 51% of Americans 6 months and older got the flu vaccine to pre-COVID levels at 48.4%. A world that no longer exists and cannot afford that luxury. 

Despite the rise in infection rates from seasonal illnesses, people tend to put these preventive measures on the backburner. In a 2022 study on public health attitudes, EmblemHealth found that people who generally adhere to public health behaviors – such as wearing a mask, testing, and quarantining, were slated to be much lower in an endemic versus pandemic classification.An endemic being a constant presence in a community differs from a pandemic because the virus is somewhat contained, not spreading out of control, and does not stress the healthcare infrastructure. Therefore we can more easily prevent and treat it.

When asked to describe an endemic to a friend or family member, the study found that the lack of understanding of the term endemic varied among respondents. Based on a general misunderstanding of the word, a majority expressed that they are more likely to reduce participation in preventive behaviors in an endemic, particularly the likelihood of getting a vaccine booster. Meanwhile, respondents also stated they were more likely to keep up and follow additional preventive measures when faced with a pandemic versus an endemic. As our understanding of the COVID-19 virus is constantly changing, we lag in our ability to gain more broad-based public support for vaccinations because we face a bombardment of information and must play our version of Dr. Anthony Fauci at home trying to discern the truth.

Too many have become tuned out. Why? Covid fatigue, information overload, the struggle to transition from a pandemic mindset to an endemic one, and the normal human desire to separate from the trauma and resume an everyday life not dominated by disease fear. Disassociation is how our brains cope with stress. The war in Ukraine, inflation, gun violence, the latest political antics, celebrity scandals, and more can crowd messages that support COVID and flu protection because they are attention-grabbing. 

We know that practicing good hygiene and getting vaccinated is how we get out of this mess. Masking up as public health officials advised in New York City works. Just as if you would not go outside when it's raining without an umbrella, avoid going into crowded public spaces without a mask while several respiratory viruses are running rampant in our area. 

Medical experts are already warning that this year's flu could be brutal and, coupled with a winter surge of covid risks, overwhelm our recovering healthcare system. The flu season began early this year in New York, with nearly 600 cases reported on October 1, 2022. The severity and timing of flu season vary each year. And we are seeing a surge in the 2022-2023 flu season —case numbers have been rising daily as this was written.

Trust us. We understand how exhausting and never-ending this saga seems. As medical professionals, we are not immune to fatigue. Our minds are also hardwired to stimulation and attention-grabbing, distracting headlines. But not keeping vigilance around health and safety protections is an ongoing recipe for disaster, especially during an international public health crisis. There have been plenty of reasons for us to feel anxious and exhausted, and justify people tuning out. But we need to make sure we are up to date on our vaccinations and following common-sense steps to protect ourselves and our loved ones. 

Staying vigilant is key to overcoming the seemingly ever-growing virus list. None of us seek to downplay the severity or impact of COVID-19. We lost too many friends, colleagues, and family members. As a country, we all have a story to tell about it. It wasn't long ago when streets were empty, stores shuttered, and the eerie sound of ambulance sirens filled the air for New Yorkers. Our healthcare workers, EMTs, and first responders still deal with the trauma of facing constant death. Studies have shown that the 2020 lockdown was a traumatic experience for us, with lingering effects to be studied and addressed by mental health specialists worldwide. Our children are still recovering from the backslide of online learning and its negative social-emotional impacts. 

As we reconvene for the holidays and into the new year, our bodies are relearning how to fight off common seasonal illnesses in addition to COVID-19. Let us focus not only on ourselves, but make sure we take steps to protect those around us with steps we know work. We've come too far to backslide now. It requires staying informed and vaccinated. If you or your loved ones are not up to date on your covid vaccines and boosters or your annual flu shot, make the necessary appointments today — you won’t be sorry.

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Dr. Navarra Rodriguez is the Chief Medical Officer at AdvantageCare Physicians (ACPNY), one of the largest primary and specialty care practices in the New York area. Indulekha Warrier is the Vice President and Chief Medical Officer at Connecticare, one of the leading health plans in Connecticut.

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The Ruthless Midterm: New York Democrats Made Key Mistakes in the 2022 Elections But Still Barely Lost House Seats


Gov. Hochul, Reps. Maloney & Ryan (photo: Darren McGee/Governor's Office)


Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight predicted the Republican Party would win the House of Representatives in the midterm election, but it was a surprise the GOP only eked out a tiny 222-213 margin, a mirror image of the Democrats’ current majority.

It was especially galling for New Yorkers to lose four Democratic seats right here. There’s already copious commentary about the midterms, so my focus here is the self-inflicted wounds by New York Democrats in the lead-up to the election, many of which have ongoing ramifications and lessons for the future. There is, of course, no singular explanation for the 2022 midterm election results. In fact, one FiveThirtyEight columnist urged a little humility for anyone seeking to explain the election.

But here are several reasons New York Democrats underperformed in 2022:

Governor Hochul’s Initial Mistakes Begin Path to House Losses
After Governor Kathy Hochul took over following Andrew Cuomo’s resignation in August 2021, she was interviewed by The New York Times and asked about the upcoming redistricting of congressional and state legislative lines. The new Independent Redistricting Commission was charged with the development of fair, nonpartisan lines following decades of partisan gerrymandering in New York.

“Do you plan to use your influence to help Democrats expand the House majority through the redistricting process?,” Hochul was asked. “Yes. I am also the leader of the New York State Democratic Party,” she answered. “I embrace that.”

This was a mistake. Sending a message to the Democratic leaders of the Legislature that she would sign partisan lines gave them the opening to do whatever they wanted. It was not known in August 2021 that the Independent Redistricting Commission would fail to agree on a unified plan for the lines, but it was known the Legislature had the power to override the commission’s lines by two-thirds votes of both houses, which the Democrats had in hand given their super-majorities. The Governor would have been wiser to be a public leader, not a partisan leader.

Also in August 2021, Governor Hochul chose State Senator Brian Benjamin of Manhattan to become Lieutenant Governor. Benjamin had some good credentials in his initial Senate tenure, a business background, downstate balance, and ties to the Harlem political establishment. There were red flags, however, especially the apparent straw-donor contributions to his New York City Comptroller campaign.

There was enough information available that should have kept Hochul away from the pick, and she and her advisors should have exercised better judgment. By the time Benjamin was indicted on federal corruption charges and resigned, the state was only two weeks away from the courts throwing out the Legislature’s new district lines for the House and State Senate.

Hochul then chose a member of Congress, Antonio Delgado from the Hudson Valley, as her second Lieutenant Governor. His 19th congressional district would eventually go Republican in November by just 1.6 points.

After 2021 Republican Wins on Long Island, Two House Democrats from Nassau County Chose Not to Run for Reelection
In November 2021 incumbent Democratic Nassau County Executive Laura Curran was defeated by Bruce Blakeman in a close election. Democratic candidates for District Attorney in both Nassau and Suffolk Counties were also defeated. Within months both incumbent House members in Nassau County announced their departures.

Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi, of the 3rd congressional district covering the northern half of Nassau County and a slice of Queens, announced his bid for Governor in late November 2021. He would go on to a poor showing in the Democratic primary in June 2022 against Governor Hochul and New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams.

Democratic Rep. Kathleen Rice, of the 4th congressional district covering the southern half of Nassau County, announced she would not run for re-election in February 2022.

Republican Anthony Esposito won Rice’s seat by about 3.5% (about 9,800 votes of 271,000 cast). Republican George Santos, now embroiled in scandal over appalling lies about his background, won Suozzi’s seat by over 20,000 votes, about 8% (Suozzi had handily defeated Santos in 2020). 

Could Rice and Suozzi have held their seats if they had chosen to stay and fight?

The Redistricting Disaster
In January 2022 that the Independent Redistricting Commission was unable to vote on a unified, bipartisan plan to submit new district lines to the Legislature, which then chose to take over the process and draw its own congressional and state legislative maps, which the Governor signed. Litigation began and reached the New York Court of Appeals (the state’s highest court) by April. The court, in a 4-3 decision, rejected the lines as both partisan and procedurally defective and ordered a court-appointed “special master” to craft nonpartisan lines.

Chief Judge Janet DiFiore said the lines had been drawn with an “impermissible partisan purpose.” The June primaries for Congress and State Senate were moved to August to await the special master’s lines. Redistricting law experts and Democrats argued the law required the court to give the Legislature another chance to draw the lines, but the Court of Appeals said no.

Were the lines so blatantly partisan that they violated the carefully structured legislation from 2014 to give nonpartisan redistricting a chance? You could make a strong argument that was the case. The Republican-held Staten Island-Brooklyn district, NY-11, was redrawn from a Trump +10 in 2020 to a Biden +10 by removing Southern Brooklyn and substituting overwhelmingly Democratic Park Slope and Sunset Park. The 3rd congressional district represented by Suozzi was redrawn from Biden +10 to Biden +14 by combining Nassau and Westchester Counties by crossing Long Island Sound. The 17th congressional district represented by Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (chair of the DCCC) went from Biden +0.6% to Biden +13%. The 19th congressional district was drawn from Biden +1.4% to Biden +10%. And the 22nd congressional district from Biden +8 to Biden +18. Enough said?

If Governor Hochul had demanded a series of equitable procedural steps by the Legislature to address the failures of the Independent Redistricting Commission, and forced maps with fairer lines, by bully pulpit or even by veto, could the court have accepted a different map? We will never know.

Hochul Sent a Tax Break to Homeowners During the Primary Not the General
Governor Hochul’s Executive Budget in January of this year included a $2.5 billion property tax rebate to homeowners, which was approved by the Legislature in April. At budget time, the rebate was scheduled to be sent out in October 2022, with an obvious political purpose for the general election. The highest rebates would go to the region of the state with the highest property taxes, the suburbs around New York City.

(In May I wrote about a State Comptroller report from mid-April showing $3 billion above March expectations in tax revenue had come into the state treasury, including an unbudgeted $2 billion. I suggested the state might want to supplement the property tax rebate with an income tax rebate that could cover more residents, since homeowner-households are only 54% of the state’s population. But no such move was made.)

Instead, by early June the governor and the Division of the Budget were already moving the property tax rebate checks out the door ahead of the Democratic primary that month. But the governor’s opponents weren’t really a threat. She easily defeated them, with 68% to Williams’ 19% and Suozzi’s 13%.

Couldn’t the governor have waited until October to send out checks? Couldn’t the governor and the Legislature have reworked the benefit to provide more relief after billions of new, unanticipated dollars had come in? Would just a handful more voters have awakened to vote for her and the local Democratic candidates if the checks had arrived right before the election, which was the original point?

Despite All, Competitive New York House Races, Like Many Across the Country, Were Very Close; 11 Nationally, Including 2 in New York, Were Decided by 1 Point or Less
Across the country, Republicans won seven House seats, including two in New York, by one point or less.

The Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, lost in the 17th congressional district in the Hudson Valley by 1,820 votes out of 285,000 cast, or 0.6%.

In New York’s 22nd congressional district, the Democrat also lost by 1% of the vote. In that race, with Republican incumbent John Katko retiring, Democrat Francis Conole lost to Republican Brandon Williams 50.5%- 49.5%, a margin of about 2,600 votes out of 268,000 cast. This seat was not one of the four in New York that Democrats held and lost; this was a pickup opportunity following a Republican retirement.

Elsewhere in the country, Democrats lost a chance at two seats, one in California and one in Colorado, by fewer than 600 votes each. Additionally, incumbent Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne in Iowa lost her seat by 0.7%; Democrats lost a vacant seat in Michigan by 0.5%; and fell just short of defeating Republican Rep. David Schweikert in Arizona by 0.9%.

Democrats also won four House seats by less than one point, in Colorado, Connecticut, New Mexico, and Washington.

4 More House Races, Including 2 in New York, Were Decided by 1-2 Points
Beyond Sean Patrick Maloney’s defeat to Republican Mike Lawler, Democrats also won one, and lost another, in close House races in New York’s Hudson Valley. In the 19th congressional district, vacated by Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado, who had won in 2018 and 2020, the Republican candidate, Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro defeated newcomer Democrat Josh Riley by 4,500 votes out of 287,000 cast, or 1.6%.

In the third of the competitive Hudson Valley congressional districts, Democrat Pat Ryan, running in the 18th district, eked out a narrow victory, winning by 3,600 votes, or 1.4%. (Ryan had defeated Molinaro in the August special election to finish Delgado’s term in the outgoing 19th congressional district, then Ryan ran in the new 18th and Molinaro in the new 19th in the regular election.)

In Arizona, Democrats lost a close race in the 6th congressional district to Juan Ciscomani, who won by 1.5%. In Pennsylvania, Democratic incumbent Susan Wild held on by two points in the 7th congressional district.

The Campaign, Results, and Turnout in the Governor’s Race
Final results from the State Board of Elections show Governor Hochul defeated Rep. Zeldin by about 378,000 votes out of 5.9 million cast, or 53.2%-46.8%., a margin of 6.4%.

She won in New York City 70%-30%, and lost by identical margins, 54%-46%, in the New York City suburbs (Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Rockland) and the rest of the state (Upstate/Western New York.

Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, interviewed in The New York Times after his defeat, said Democratic candidates in the New York City suburbs could not overcome Hochul’s double-digit defeat in those areas of Long Island and the Hudson Valley, indicative of the backlash against crime inflamed by The New York Post and Fox News in the huge New York media market.

Zeldin had the strongest showing of a Republican candidate for Governor since George Pataki won his third term in 2002. The Democrats underestimated both Zeldin himself, the power of his anti-crime message, and the backlash against Democrats over inflation.

In defense of Governor Hochul, it was not likely she could match Cuomo’s 2018 margin, 59%-36%, against a weak candidate as he sought a third term in the first statewide election after Trump’s 2016 win. A Siena poll taken a few weeks after she took over in August 2021 showed 41% of New Yorkers did not have an opinion of her. Seven months later, with inflation raging as the state adopted its budget, another Siena poll showed she still faced strong headwinds: 40% of voters wanted to re-elect her, 45% of voters preferred someone else, and 15% weren’t sure.

Campaign messaging from Hochul and other Democrats was not weak: women’s right to bodily autonomy and a commitment to democracy had their own potency. How did the potency of Zeldin’s message versus the potency of Hochul’s message match up in the motivation to vote in those critical districts?

Nate Cohn, The New York Times chief political analyst, pointed to an Albany Times Union analysis of the vote across the state. This analysis showed that 63% of Republican and Conservative Party voters cast ballots in the 2022 general election, compared to 47% of Democrats, 37% of party-unaffiliated voters, and 45% of ‘other’ voters (most of whom are former members of the Independence Party).

Turnout was higher among Democrats and Republicans in the most competitive congressional districts, but Republican turnout was still well above Democratic levels.

Despite some critical mistakes and the power of Zeldin’s campaign, Democrats’ House losses in New York were about as close as can be. if the district lines had been slightly different, or if some of Democratic incumbents had chosen to stand their ground and run for re-election, Democrats might have held several seats they lost.

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Jim Brennan was a member of the New York State Assembly for 32 years, where he chaired four committees. On Twitter @JimBrennanNY.

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